Pats/Bills

[BJPLAYER]

This game looks like a total mismatch but Buff seems to get up for the Pats when the Pats come into their crib. One of the players said that the abuse from the fans usually starts when they get inside most stadiums. In Buffalo it starts 2 miles from the stadium with the fans taunting the team bus. Much as I would like to lay the points history tells me to stay away. Don’t think Buff will be able to run on the Pats so maybe a Buff TT under. Weather is supposed to be good so can’t see anything slowing Tommy down except a concerted effort by the Bills D which is possible. I could be totally off base here but it seems like a Buff and under play.

 

[mrpickem]

77% of public money is on NE -14, and when lines push that heavy, they become “too big to fail” in most people’s eyes. I think that Vegas is so excited for this game knowing that people see Tom Brady with the returning Gronk and think “two TDs isn’t that much.” The Pats clearly outmatch most offenses in the league, but their (run) defense leaves room for improvement — so much so that I would even wager Lesean McCoy to have 2 TDs (+650, maybe 1/2u play, but I’m also incredibly degen and just love action).

Now all the stats more or less point to an easy Patriots win, but something that really pushed me into betting on the Bills to cover tonight is I am expecting a lethal combination of two things from the Pats: lackluster effort against an easy team + the hangover from celebrating the city’s win in the World Series last night. Some players were posting on Snapchat stories as late as 5 AM, and while they’re all adults and it is a night game, it definitely factors compared to the sober Bills that have a lot to prove by covering.

Bills +14 (haven't clicked it in yet, but very likely)

View attachment 35648

 

[BJPLAYER]

Good stuff Pick. Pats 29th ranked D would lead one to think that Buff can score here. But with Derek Anderson under center will they be able to put points up? Is he even an NFL QB? We will find out. As Pick points out Pats are a big public Fav as they are most weeks and they usually pay. We will see.

 

[inZane]

Bills have the lowest total points scored at 81, only have 7 offensive TD's, and they have not had 20 first downs in a game this year yet. They have not won straight up on a Monday night since 1999, (0-6), and at home on Monday night it was 1994.

Two TD's is a lot to lay, but I'm not sure I can pull the trigger on these losers. It's either the Pats and/or the under for me.

Glta...

 

[Ryno14]

Bills have the lowest total points scored at 81, only have 7 offensive TD's, and they have not had 20 first downs in a game this year yet. They have not won straight up on a Monday night since 1999, (0-6), and at home on Monday night it was 1994.

Two TD's is a lot to lay, but I'm not sure I can pull the trigger on these losers. It's either the Pats and/or the under for me.

Glta...

It’s weird but I also like Pats and under. Could see something like 31-10

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Pats 6th best offense
Bill last

Bills 6th best D and 4th best Pass D
Pats 18th on D

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

crosswinds homer/over ref

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Dereck Anderson is all of a sudden a competent NFL QB? He is like 50 and terrible

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Marcus Canon out other Tackle Brown Quest

josh, dontaa quest
eric rowe db and sony out


Bills not really dinged outside loser QB

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Just Played Pats tt u28/+104

 

[pb278817]

Isn’t there a mnf stat that favours the home dog big time ats when spread is dd? Anyone know exactly what it is

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Jerome Boger 86-65 (57.0% 18.18 units)64-91 (41.3% -30.49 units)

I tend to think, rightly or wrongly, when I see splits so distinct like Jerome I think the following.

The game will definitely go over or the home team covers.

Maybe the home team and over will hit, but prolly not.

The one thing I dont expect is the visitor and the under.

So If Pats cover and under hits cause Dereck Anderson is impossibly bad,whatever

 

[Zeke]

Isn’t there a mnf stat that favours the home dog big time ats when spread is dd? Anyone know exactly what it is

I heard them mention a trend this morning on VSIN favoring the Bills that's 14-0-1. I'm sure it's something obscure like home divisional dogs on a Monday night catching DD's. Although not sure if that has even happened 15 times.

 

[Jdizzle305]

I just bet pats -13 I like that

 

[mrpickem]

NBA Steam Move10/29 5:15 PM
(714) MIN +2
BetUS (18-20, -3 units)

Home dog of 8 or more since 2012 is 39-8 under the total (will also apply to brownies week 9

 

[mrpickem]

I heard them mention a trend this morning on VSIN favoring the Bills that's 14-0-1. I'm sure it's something obscure like home divisional dogs on a Monday night catching DD's. Although not sure if that has even happened 15 times.

Home DD dog in division has only happened 4 times since 1994. Thats as far back as sdql data goes.
2-2 ATS but the under is 4-0
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[mrpickem]

5745 J.White receiving yards over 49½ -140

Seems like a solid prop with Michel out. Tom loves to dump and Gronk cant be 100%

View attachment 35655

 

[mrpickem]

home dog of 9 or more is 24-9 ats on Monday when total is 40 or more (12 years)
14-5 when line >=10

View attachment 35656

 

[Forty oz b]

I've been eyeing this game for a couple weeks now. As a pats fan I tend to lay off but I made this my biggest play of the year (bought it down to -13). The bills inability to sustain drives will lead to TB doing whatever he wants particularly underneath with White & Edelman. Always that fear of backdoor covers in the NFL but the Pats will be running the ball for most of the 3rd and 4th quarters anyway up 21-28 and thats why you buy the pt.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Here's what Buffalo's defense has accomplished against the top quarterbacks it's faced since Week 2

Limited Andrew Luck to his lowest yardage output, limited Rodgers to his worst QB rating, limited Watson to one of his lowest yardage outputs, limited Kirk Cousins to his lowest QB rating.

That's a pretty good track record. Not to mention Buffalo ranks 24th in average TOP and turns the ball over a lot. So its D is good very much despite its offense.

That just points towards the view not even so much that they limit Brady but that they keep him from lighting Buffalo up. Should come to play on prime time vs divisional opponent

Don't need to say anything about how bad Buffalo's offense is. 31 points combined in the past four points despite facing defenses like Indy's! I think one can assume a max of 10 points, especially given that Brady doesn't really turn it over. So i'm totally on board with Ryno, something like 27-10 where Buffalo has somewhat of a scary chance to cover back doors but the "under" is a safer play

 

[Ryno14]

Here's what Buffalo's defense has accomplished against the top quarterbacks it's faced since Week 2

Limited Andrew Luck to his lowest yardage output, limited Rodgers to his worst QB rating, limited Watson to one of his lowest yardage outputs, limited Kirk Cousins to his lowest QB rating.

That's a pretty good track record. Not to mention Buffalo ranks 24th in average TOP and turns the ball over a lot. So its D is good very much despite its offense.

That just points towards the view not even so much that they limit Brady but that they keep him from lighting Buffalo up. Should come to play on prime time vs divisional opponent

Don't need to say anything about how bad Buffalo's offense is. 31 points combined in the past four points despite facing defenses like Indy's! I think one can assume a max of 10 points, especially given that Brady doesn't really turn it over. So i'm totally on board with Ryno, something like 27-10 where Buffalo has somewhat of a scary chance to cover back doors but the "under" is a safer play

I couldn't bet the side, but I did take the under.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Dontaa out

Tackle and Josh active

 

[2daBank]

5745 J.White receiving yards over 49½ -140

Seems like a solid prop with Michel out. Tom loves to dump and Gronk cant be 100%

View attachment 35655

Prob best play there was in this game, good get.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Notice how the Cardinals fans have dominated primetime football betting. @2daBank was one point off the exact score last night and tonight i said 27-10 under and it was 25-6. goes to show which baseball team‘s fanbase is the smartest

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Looks like we all hit this game 10 different ways. Good job peeps.

 

[2daBank]

Notice how the Cardinals fans have dominated primetime football betting. @2daBank was one point off the exact score last night and tonight i said 27-10 under and it was 25-6. goes to show which baseball team‘s fanbase is the smartest

Hardly think the fact I’m reasonably smart says anything about stl cardinal fans in general. I drive in traffic w these ppl every day, I promise there a lot of dumb mf’in cards fans!!