Pats -7.5 a trap?

[The_Kid]

I just don't see how Colts stay close. Revenge game for Brady and Luck has simply played bad this season with turnovers andcoming off injury.

Pats have pounded them from what I remember every game for the last couple of years.

I expected 10pt line here, what am I missing?

 

[Sticky_Socks]

I couldn't agree more. My book has the line at 9.5. I took that for 3U as I see the line climbing higher than 10. Pats win by 20.

 

[emkee]

Elo has this spread at 4.5, I have it at 5.

Spread is inflated, no pun intended.

Pats could easily cover but they got peeps laying the premium.

It is currently at 10, books on teaser watch.

[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody>[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]10/18

8:30 PM


273 NE-T Brady
274 IND-A LUCK
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]92%
8%[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]61%
39%[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]69%
31%[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] -7
54.5[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] -10+100
54.5[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] -10.5+110
54.5[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] -10+108
54.5u-109[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] -10+105
54.5[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Gyno]

Can't deny that Brady and Belichick want to say fuck you to the world for the deflate gate BS. NE TT over likely a good play too.

Pats drop 40 here.

 

[spanishshark]

Line is pretty close. I made Pats better by 9. Too close for me to play.

 

[Zeke]

Elo has this spread at 4.5, I have it at 5.
[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody>[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]10/18

8:30 PM


273 NE-T Brady
274 IND-A LUCK
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]92%
8%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]61%
39%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]69%
31%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] -7
54.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] -10+100
54.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] -10.5+110
54.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] -10+108
54.5u-109
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] -10+105
54.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Based on what? I base my opinions/lines mostly on simply watching the games & a little bit of history. I'll be the first to say when I think the Pats are in for a fight but to me this is not one of those instances. I guessed it would come out at 10.5 but knew I would take anything under 11.5.

Of course by the time Bovada releases it I will be looking at 11.5. Any day now douchebags!!!

 

[emkee]

Based on what? I base my opinions/lines mostly on simply watching the games & a little bit of history. I'll be the first to say when I think the Pats are in for a fight but to me this is not one of those instances. I guessed it would come out at 10.5 but knew I would take anything under 11.5.

Of course by the time Bovada releases it I will be looking at 11.5. Any day now douchebags!!!

Based on 20,000+ simulations.

No team is warranted as -10 road fave in Indy, even more-so if Luck plays.

Indy 6-0 ATS and SU in the Luck era as a home dog (biggest spread was 6.5).

Pats haven't exactly played anyone worth shit so far.

This spread as over-inflated a line as I've seen in quite awhile.

 

[B.A.R.]

I just don't see how Colts stay close. Revenge game for Brady and Luck has simply played bad this season with turnovers andcoming off injury.

Pats have pounded them from what I remember every game for the last couple of years.

I expected 10pt line here, what am I missing?

So if this game is in NE, you are fine with the Pats being -17.5?

 

[The_Kid]

Based on 20,000+ simulations.

No team is warranted as -10 road fave in Indy, even more-so if Luck plays.

Indy 6-0 ATS and SU in the Luck era as a home dog (biggest spread was 6.5).

Pats haven't exactly played anyone worth shit so far.

This spread as over-inflated a line as I've seen in quite awhile.

Colts were also 17-1 ATS at home after a loss, but then got spanked by the Jets. Colts without Luck also saw a Jacksonville game reach overtime, and barely won with a field goal. I think if anything, Luck skill is over-inflated simply with his turnovers. Throw in the revenge motives for deflategate, and they may want to consider moving this blood bath to PPV.

 

[The_Kid]

So if this game is in NE, you are fine with the Pats being -17.5?

I would consider a NE -14 line fair in NE if that answers your question

 

[Lareux]

I would consider a NE -14 line fair in NE if that answers your question

Then -10 on the road wouldn't make sense. If they were -10 on the road, they'd be -17ish like BAR said at home. If you have NE -14 at home, it seems the line of -7.5 is right in line with your line guesses.

 

[B.A.R.]

I would consider a NE -14 line fair in NE if that answers your question

Okay, then a fair line in Indy is about -7...

 

[emkee]

Colts were also 17-1 ATS at home after a loss, but then got spanked by the Jets. Colts without Luck also saw a Jacksonville game reach overtime, and barely won with a field goal. I think if anything, Luck skill is over-inflated simply with his turnovers. Throw in the revenge motives for deflategate, and they may want to consider moving this blood bath to PPV.

Indy motivated here also, yeah ?

Revenge is the most overrated angle in sports betting.

 

[The_Kid]

Indy motivated here of course. I just sprinkled the revenge factor on top of a line I already thought was low.

Are we considering home field worth 7 pts? or 3 pts?

 

[B.A.R.]

Indy motivated here of course. I just sprinkled the revenge factor on top of a line I already thought was low.

Are we considering home field worth 7 pts? or 3 pts?

3 to 3.5.....so flip it 6-7 points home versus away...

 

[The_Kid]

3 to 3.5.....so flip it 6-7 points home versus away...

That makes sense, specifically this year I don't think home field has helped Luck much.. at least not yet.

I'm overly excited because I got -105 at 7.5 with my book, so I went in heavy. Just trying to get some feedback to keep me humble.

 

[emkee]

That being said and agreeing this spread is inflated, I won't be betting the Colts this week.

 

[Tide High]

Revenge is the most overrated angle in sports betting.

not at all, but only because people play the revenge card way too much. a loss a previous year is not revenge. there are times where it can be played and is definitely worth points. see alabama the year after the cam newton comeback game. when the replay of the previous years game is played int he locker room 24/7 all offseason... that's revenge.

revenge is a huge motivator for preparation, especially in college. but "revenge" is not usually what we say it is. its not something that comes up often.

 

[BJPLAYER]

I tend to agree with emkee on the revenge thing....I seriously doubt that deflate gate has even been mentioned in the Pats practice this week and football has to be played at such a super intense level on most every play that revenge becomes moot....Pats haven't really played anyone that has put a decent game plan against them but in each game they have looked dominant. One guy that may come with a little more fire in his eyes is Brady. The colts put him through hell on a trumped up charge for no other reason than jealousy. Their front office is a bunch of pussies that can't win on their own merit so they resorted to dirty tricks and smeared one of the classiest guys in the NFL in the process. All that said it is difficult to lay more than 7 here but I would love to see 52-3. and the total looks too high to me. Luck may spend a good part of the day on his back with that inept o line so I can see under more than under.