New England's Brady Bunch Won't Keep Pace With Kansas City
New England (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) at Kansas City (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS)
Saturday, January 20, 6:40 p.m. ET (CBS)
NFL Pick: Chiefs ATS
Kansas City's defense is not exactly the same one that got gashed in KC's 43-40 Week 6 loss against the Patriots. But one important continuity comes on the ground. The Chiefs ranked dead-last in opposing YPC, allowing five. When these teams met, Sony Michel and James White combined for 145 rushing yards on 30 carries (4.8 YPC). Even Arizona's last-ranked rush offense (in terms of YPC) found success against the Chiefs. David Johnson averaged 4.7 YPC against them, despite averaging 3.6 during the regular season.
New England ranks third in run-blocking. Its offensive line repeatedly opened up impressive holes against what was supposed to be a formidable Charger defense and Sony Michel averaged 5.4 YPC. Michel's success has been historic. Last year's first-round pick has accrued more rushing yards than any other rookie running back under Bill Belichik, despite missing three games and accruing only four carries in another.
The advantage that Michel and New England's offensive line give the Patriots won't suffice for them to cover. Kansas City's prolific offense will score a lot, meaning that the Patriots will have to keep pace, which they won't be able to do simply by running. New England will have to pass well enough. But the Patriots' offense will not have the edge against Kansas City's defense in this respect.
In the Week 6 match-up, Brady went 24-for-35 for 340 yards and a touchdown. But don't forget that, at the time, Kansas City's secondary was so thin that it had a wide receiver practicing at safety. Cornerback Charvarius Ward is one emergence in KC's secondary. Against the Colts, he played 51 snaps, more than any other Chiefs defender, and allowed only four receptions on eight targets for 42 yards, breaking up four passes in the process. Against New England, he did not play at all.
Another change is safety Daniel Sorensen, who replaced Josh Shaw. Shaw had helped cost the Chiefs the game against New England by giving up a key deep pass against Gronk. In the past two games, Kansas City's improved pass defense has allowed 16 points combined, while limiting Derek Carr and Andrew Luck each to under 205 yards.
A crucial element in any game plan to defeat the Brady-led Patriots is a successful pass rush. When the Patriots lost to Tennessee 34-10, the Titans achieved three sacks and seven quarterback hits. When they lost to Detroit 26-10, the Lions accrued two sacks and six quarterback hits. In both games, Brady was largely ineffective. The Chiefs boast one of the NFL's best pass rushes. Their adjusted sack rate is .1% lower than Detroit and they rank seventh in the category.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Leaving work on this fine Tuesday... <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LetsRoll?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#LetsRoll</a> <a href="https://t.co/f3acrgZPyr">pic.twitter.com/f3acrgZPyr</a></p>— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) <a href=" ">15. Januar 2019</a></blockquote>
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Finally, when the Chiefs and Patriots played, Justin Houston was absent. The veteran edge rusher is a monstrous part of Kansas City's pass rush. Despite playing in only 12 games, he was third on the team with nine sacks, third in tackles for loss, and third in quarterback hits. The weakness of New England's pass protection is its tackles, who will struggle with Houston.
Kansas City's pass rush isn't even dependent on Houston. Defensive end Chris Jones led the team with 15.5 sacks, 19 tackles for loss, and 29 quarterback hits. He terrorized Colts center Ryan Kelly, who had been a big reason for Indianapolis having one of the highest-ranked offensive lines. Moreover, linebacker Dee Ford accrued 13 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, and 29 quarterback hits. The list goes on. KC's linebackers will need to blanket New England's running back James White in coverage as they did other prolific running back targets like Cincinnati's Joe Mixon.
New England's pass attack misses its deep threat Josh Gordon, without whom Brady's YPA was 6.5, 1.6 lower than with. In order to stay competitive, the Pats will need Brady to push the ball downfield. Brady will run into a dominant pass rush, improved linebacker and secondary play, and Michel won't help him out then.
New England (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) at Kansas City (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS)
Saturday, January 20, 6:40 p.m. ET (CBS)
NFL Pick: Chiefs ATS
Kansas City's defense is not exactly the same one that got gashed in KC's 43-40 Week 6 loss against the Patriots. But one important continuity comes on the ground. The Chiefs ranked dead-last in opposing YPC, allowing five. When these teams met, Sony Michel and James White combined for 145 rushing yards on 30 carries (4.8 YPC). Even Arizona's last-ranked rush offense (in terms of YPC) found success against the Chiefs. David Johnson averaged 4.7 YPC against them, despite averaging 3.6 during the regular season.
New England ranks third in run-blocking. Its offensive line repeatedly opened up impressive holes against what was supposed to be a formidable Charger defense and Sony Michel averaged 5.4 YPC. Michel's success has been historic. Last year's first-round pick has accrued more rushing yards than any other rookie running back under Bill Belichik, despite missing three games and accruing only four carries in another.
The advantage that Michel and New England's offensive line give the Patriots won't suffice for them to cover. Kansas City's prolific offense will score a lot, meaning that the Patriots will have to keep pace, which they won't be able to do simply by running. New England will have to pass well enough. But the Patriots' offense will not have the edge against Kansas City's defense in this respect.
In the Week 6 match-up, Brady went 24-for-35 for 340 yards and a touchdown. But don't forget that, at the time, Kansas City's secondary was so thin that it had a wide receiver practicing at safety. Cornerback Charvarius Ward is one emergence in KC's secondary. Against the Colts, he played 51 snaps, more than any other Chiefs defender, and allowed only four receptions on eight targets for 42 yards, breaking up four passes in the process. Against New England, he did not play at all.
Another change is safety Daniel Sorensen, who replaced Josh Shaw. Shaw had helped cost the Chiefs the game against New England by giving up a key deep pass against Gronk. In the past two games, Kansas City's improved pass defense has allowed 16 points combined, while limiting Derek Carr and Andrew Luck each to under 205 yards.
A crucial element in any game plan to defeat the Brady-led Patriots is a successful pass rush. When the Patriots lost to Tennessee 34-10, the Titans achieved three sacks and seven quarterback hits. When they lost to Detroit 26-10, the Lions accrued two sacks and six quarterback hits. In both games, Brady was largely ineffective. The Chiefs boast one of the NFL's best pass rushes. Their adjusted sack rate is .1% lower than Detroit and they rank seventh in the category.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Leaving work on this fine Tuesday... <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LetsRoll?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#LetsRoll</a> <a href="https://t.co/f3acrgZPyr">pic.twitter.com/f3acrgZPyr</a></p>— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) <a href=" ">15. Januar 2019</a></blockquote>
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Finally, when the Chiefs and Patriots played, Justin Houston was absent. The veteran edge rusher is a monstrous part of Kansas City's pass rush. Despite playing in only 12 games, he was third on the team with nine sacks, third in tackles for loss, and third in quarterback hits. The weakness of New England's pass protection is its tackles, who will struggle with Houston.
Kansas City's pass rush isn't even dependent on Houston. Defensive end Chris Jones led the team with 15.5 sacks, 19 tackles for loss, and 29 quarterback hits. He terrorized Colts center Ryan Kelly, who had been a big reason for Indianapolis having one of the highest-ranked offensive lines. Moreover, linebacker Dee Ford accrued 13 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, and 29 quarterback hits. The list goes on. KC's linebackers will need to blanket New England's running back James White in coverage as they did other prolific running back targets like Cincinnati's Joe Mixon.
New England's pass attack misses its deep threat Josh Gordon, without whom Brady's YPA was 6.5, 1.6 lower than with. In order to stay competitive, the Pats will need Brady to push the ball downfield. Brady will run into a dominant pass rush, improved linebacker and secondary play, and Michel won't help him out then.
