Pappy's Picks Week 10 (48-38 ATS 56% +26 units)

[PappyOSU]

Week 10 is here, LFG.

Week 9 finishes 6-4 +2 units. Best bet of the week cashes again with the LAC/NYJ Under. NFL top play on the board each week moves to 8-0 as we head into week 10 (no picks were made week 7).

NFL System moves to 48-38 ATS (56%) +26 units year to date. 13-7 past 2 weeks +19units. Things are starting to heat up and will do my best outwork any regression tendencies, and make sure im hexing all the jinxes. Lol. Staying focused.

NFL System last year was 68-36 ATS going into Week 10 (+52 units), but also worth mentioning that it came back to earth during the Back 9 too. Second half of last years regular season finished an uninspiring 57-48 and just +6.5 units. You're not gonna bring home many chicks from the bar with 6.5 units so the moral of that story is were not limping across the finish line again this year, no fuking way. So everyone fire yourselves up with the most legendary bathroom mirror halftime speech you got, keep contributing your handicapping talents to the board, and together we shall cash copious amounts of winners the rest of the way


My now automated YTD record splits that are so much freaking easier to maintain and share are as follows:

RECORD BY TYPE	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall Composite	+41.5	95	79	2	54.60%
CFB Spread Record	15.5	47	41	0	53.41%
NFL Spread Record	18.5	40	34	2	54.05%
CFB Totals Record	0	0	0	0	0.00%
NFL Totals Record	7.5	8	4	0	66.67%

RECORD BY UNIT	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall Composite	+41.5	95	79	2	54.60%
4 Unit Bets	12	3	0	0	100.00%
3.5 Unit Bets	0	0	0	0	0.00%
3 Unit Bets	24	13	5	0	72.22%
2.5 Unit Bets	-7.5	6	9	0	40.00%
2 Unit Bets	24	21	9	1	70.00%
1.5 Unit Bets	-18	9	21	0	30.00%
1 Unit Bets	6	28	22	0	56.00%
0.5 Unit Bets	1	15	13	1	53.57%

RECORD BY WEEK	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall Composite	+41.5	95	79	2	54.60%
CFB Week 1	6	10	6	0	62.50%
CFB Week 2	-2.5	4	7	0	36.36%
CFB Week 3	2	6	5	0	54.55%
CFB Week 4	6	7	2	0	77.78%
CFB Week 5	-7	1	4	0	20.00%
CFB Week 6	0.5	2	3	0	40.00%
CFB Week 7	2.5	10	11	0	47.62%
CFB Week 8	0	0	0	0	0.00%
CFB Week 9	0	0	0	0	0.00%
CFB Week 10	8	7	3	0	70.00%
NFL Week 1	1	7	5	0	58.33%
NFL Week 2	-6.5	6	9	0	40.00%
NFL Week 3	0.5	3	4	0	42.86%
NFL Week 4	6	8	3	0	72.73%
NFL Week 5	4	6	5	0	54.55%
NFL Week 6	2	5	5	0	50.00%
NFL Week 7	0	0	0	0	0.00%
NFL Week 8	17	7	3	2	70.00%
NFL Week 9	2	6	4	0	60.00%

Midweek update will be posted prior to kickoff of Thursday Night Football. CFB thread will be started and updated separately on that board.

Best of luck to everyone this week

 

[jpfeck]

thanks for the update Pappy

always look forward to your posts!

 

[PappyOSU]

impressive day; who are the sources making the picks ? various podcasts ?

Sorry never got back to you on this one Capo, wanted to carry it over here rather than bump an old thread.. Thanks for the kind words

Yes podcasts and radio shows are a distinct category of sources that have their picks measured into the overall chili pot. About 10 categories of ingredients are measured in overall, Each has their own qualification criteria for entry, and their own procedure for min/max scoring. The idea of the mutual fund approach is to have the best perspectives and angles of the betting industry all represented to either combine forces or keep each other in check.

When searching for the best recipe you never want to overpower any category or any ingredient, you never want to be too bland either. So its a never ending taste test on what works and what needs more and what needs less and what just tastes like shit. Constantly on the search for new and better ingredients, rotating out the underperforming stock and replacing it with new fresh ingredients, tweaking at the end with various toppings. I have a lot of fun doing this. Its easy to explain using food terms too lol. If you prefer Pizza or Sundaes more than Chili we can do that too. Haha

The composite scoring system is what allows each pick from each source in each category to speak the same language. Now that confidence levels and units and stars and %'s and ratios etc all speak the same language, they can easily tell the same story. Algorithms and stuff. Advancements through wayfinding. After 7 years it is becoming its own very unique historical trend database at this point, and its starting to feed value back into itself which is kinda cool to see my baby all grown up. Its an unforeseen but welcome addition that will only continue to grow.

As complex as everything is that goes into it, the only goal for what comes out is to be as simple as possible for everyone to understand.

Look at board, know who to bet, know how much to bet. Manage bankroll, hopefully win, at worst live to fight another day.

 

[PappyOSU]

thanks for the update Pappy

always look forward to your posts!

Appreciate you JP! The only reason I do this is to help others as much as possible. So feedback like this keeps me focused and driven to put in the work needed to have an advantage in this industry.

Ill do my best for you and everyone else who follows along

 

[PappyOSU]

Early Games. Ill add lines in a moment

Pick	Pick Count	Opp Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Steelers	36	19	98	4 (max)
Bengals	35	19	98	4 (max)
Niners	30	21	59	2
Saints	35	28	46	1.5
Bucs	28	23	31	1
Ravens	27	22	22	0.5

 

[PappyOSU]

Just updating to include lines for early games. Preparing to post the afternoon games now.

Pick	Pick Count	Opp Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Steelers -3	36	19	98	4 (max)
Bengals -5.5	35	19	98	4 (max)
Niners -3	30	21	59	2
Saints -2.5	35	28	46	1.5
Bucs -2.5	28	23	31	1
Ravens -5.5	27	22	22	0.5

 

[PappyOSU]

Afternoon Games Added.

SEA, LV, DAL, DET

Pick	Pick Count	Opp Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Steelers -3	36	19	98	4 (max)
Bengals -5.5	35	19	98	4 (max)
Seahawks -6	35	17	97	4 (max)
Raiders +1.5	36	20	89	3.5
Cowboys -17.5	38	21	88	3.5
Lions -2.5	31	19	66	2.5
Niners -3	30	21	59	2
Saints -2.5	35	28	46	1.5
Bucs -2.5	28	23	31	1
Ravens -5.5	27	22	22	0.5
Cardinals +2	25	22	11	Lean

 

[jpfeck]

Get ‘em Pappy!

 

[PappyOSU]

Monday Night Game added.

Bills -7.5 for 1.5 units

Good luck tonight everyone. Weekly recap and YTD record update coming next.

Pick	Pick Count	Opp Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Steelers -3	36	19	98	4 (max)
Bengals -5.5	35	19	98	4 (max)
Seahawks -6	35	17	97	4 (max)
Raiders +1.5	36	20	89	3.5
Cowboys -17.5	38	21	88	3.5
Lions -2.5	31	19	66	2.5
Niners -3	30	21	59	2
Bills -7.5	30	21	47	1.5
Saints -2.5	35	28	46	1.5
Bucs -2.5	28	23	31	1
Ravens -5.5	27	22	22	0.5
Cardinals +2	25	22	11	Lean

 

[jpfeck]

get it