Pappy's Picks Super Bowl (181-164-7 YTD 53% +52.5 units)

[PappyOSU]

Was an up and down playoffs for the Composite System. Started 9-3 in the Wild Card +10.5 units. I then promptly gave it all back to the gambling gods with my worst weekend in the past 4 years going 1-4-1 down 10 units.. lol. Thankfully I was able to salvage things in the conference titles, going 3-1 and +6 units.

So its been a profitable playoffs (+6.5 units) as we look at the final game of the year. Then 7 months of misery commonly referred to as the off season. Goes by too fast every year.

Turning focus to the Super Bowl, this one is always a bit dicey. Reason is because there will be outstanding sources of input on each side of the fence for spread and total. Ill tally it all up and do my best to find an edge but typically its 50/50 so I have passed on this game and just focused on ridiculous prop bets and disappointment in my super bowl square pool. If something presents itself though, ill be firing


Record recap for now as I begin gathering information from the industry. LFG

RECORD BY TYPE	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	+52.5	181	164	7	53%
CFB Spread Record	+9	76	73	1	51%
NFL Spread Record	+43	91	78	5	54%
CFB Totals Record	0	0	0	0	NA
NFL Totals Record	+0.5	14	13	1	52%

RECORD BY UNIT	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	+52.5	181	164	7	53%
4 Unit Bets	+12	10	7	0	59%
3.5 Unit Bets	+7	5	3	0	63%
3 Unit Bets	+21	16	9	0	64%
2.5 Unit Bets	+7.5	16	13	0	55%
2 Unit Bets	+22	29	18	2	62%
1.5 Unit Bets	-16.5	22	33	1	40%
1 Unit Bets	-3	45	48	2	48%
0.5 Unit Bets	+2.5	38	33	2	54%

 

[jpfeck]

52.5 to the good, well done!! I wish I could say the same…

Thank you for all of your Insight

 

[PappyOSU]

Glad you enjoy it brother. That's what I do this for!

Ill keep grinding and doing everything I can to help each week.

 

[B.A.R.]

Appreciate your contributions

 

[PappyOSU]

Appreciate your contributions

Likewise

 

[PappyOSU]

Ok everyone. Ive done my best here.

For system purposes, the Chiefs +2.5 comes in at 2 units, and the under 47.5 comes in at 1 unit. Lots of sharps and other great sources backing each side and total. Lots of trends supporting each as well. Computer sims back the Chiefs almost unanimously. Most pros and most top Joes siding with KC, pros seem to love the under. Results are as follows:

Pick	Source Picks	Opponent Picks	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Chiefs +2.5	148	100	52	2
KC/SF Under 47.5	44	20	30	1

For props... .5 units on the following

Kyle Juszczyk over 4.5 receiving yards -120
Brock Purdy under 31.5 pass attempts -115
Both teams score a rushing TD +130
Travis Kelce over 72.5 receiving yards -115
Travis Kelce MVP +1000
Travis Kelce first TD +550
Over 2.5 players with a passing attempt +140


My gut has the Niners personally, mostly because the books need it and they seem happy taking such a lopsided handle and not doing too much to adjust the line for a more even split. Books appear to be content going all in on SF so I will back those guys despite the market data I have gathered and the system play that backs the Chiefs. So the system likes the Chiefs, but me personally I will be pulling for Nick Bosa and Chase Young making Pat sandwiches all evening (go Bucks) and siding with the Niners. Also the under and the props listed above. Enjoy the game everyone, regardless of the outcome. Stay within your betting (and alcohol) limits, grub on some good food, and best of luck to you all. Until next year... Pappy out

 

[jpfeck]

Like the Juszczyk, and have him in a handful of plays. enjoy the game!

 

[B.A.R.]

Ok everyone. Ive done my best here.

For system purposes, the Chiefs +2.5 comes in at 2 units, and the under 47.5 comes in at 1 unit. Lots of sharps and other great sources backing each side and total. Lots of trends supporting each as well. Computer sims back the Chiefs almost unanimously. Most pros and most top Joes siding with KC, pros seem to love the under. Results are as follows:

Pick	Source Picks	Opponent Picks	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Chiefs +2.5	148	100	52	2
KC/SF Under 47.5	44	20	30	1

For props... .5 units on the following

Kyle Juszczyk over 4.5 receiving yards -120
Brock Purdy under 31.5 pass attempts -115
Both teams score a rushing TD +130
Travis Kelce over 72.5 receiving yards -115
Travis Kelce MVP +1000
Travis Kelce first TD +550
Over 2.5 players with a passing attempt +140


My gut has the Niners personally, mostly because the books need it and they seem happy taking such a lopsided handle and not doing too much to adjust the line for a more even split. Books appear to be content going all in on SF so I will back those guys despite the market data I have gathered and the system play that backs the Chiefs. So the system likes the Chiefs, but me personally I will be pulling for Nick Bosa and Chase Young making Pat sandwiches all evening (go Bucks) and siding with the Niners. Also the under and the props listed above. Enjoy the game everyone, regardless of the outcome. Stay within your betting (and alcohol) limits, grub on some good food, and best of luck to you all. Until next year... Pappy out

Great stuff.

Nice job on passing attempts.