Pappy's Picks NFL Week 8
- Thread starter PappyOSU
- Start date
PappyOSU
Pretty much a regular
Will Add lines and clean this up but here are the 10AM picks on the far left column
| Pick | Source Count | Composite Score | Avg Confidence | Opponent Count | Opponent Score | Opponent Confidence |
| Vikings PK | 30 | 156 | 5.20 | 26 | 148 | 5.69 |
| Jags | 28 | 154 | 5.50 | 26 | 129 | 4.96 |
| Panthers | 37 | 202 | 5.46 | 23 | 128 | 5.57 |
| Commanders | 23 | 122 | 5.30 | 21 | 104 | 4.95 |
| Rams +7 | 29 | 152 | 5.24 | 20 | 103 | 5.15 |
| Giants | 25 | 125 | 5.00 | 19 | 95 | 5.00 |
| Titans | 39 | 201 | 5.15 | 17 | 94 | 5.53 |
| Saints | 28 | 154 | 5.50 | 16 | 78 | 4.88 |
| Dolphins | 33 | 173 | 5.24 | 14 | 73 | 5.21 |
PappyOSU
Pretty much a regular
Ok got it cleaned up for early games
Totals Of the Week
| Pick | Source Count | Opponent Count | Composite Score | Avg Confidence | Opponent Confidence |
| Titans +2.5 | 39 | 17 | 107 | 5.15 | 5.53 |
| Dolphins -7.5 | 33 | 14 | 100 | 5.24 | 5.21 |
| Saints -1.5 | 28 | 16 | 76 | 5.50 | 4.88 |
| Panthers +3.5 | 37 | 23 | 74 | 5.46 | 5.57 |
| Rams +7 | 29 | 20 | 49 | 5.24 | 5.15 |
| Giants +3 | 25 | 19 | 30 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Jags -2 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 5.50 | 4.96 |
| Commanders +7 | 23 | 21 | 18 | 5.30 | 4.95 |
| Vikings PK | 30 | 26 | 8 | 5.20 | 5.69 |
Totals Of the Week
| HOU/CAR | Under 43.5 | 7 | 1 |
| ATL/TEN | Under 35.5 | 5 | 0 |
PappyOSU
Pretty much a regular
@emg2525 I have the board updated below after normalizing the composite scores. That was all raw data but here is what it spits out to.
Thanks for bringing up the unit betting amounts because I am rolling out a new scoring system this week. I've been test driving a few alternative scoring systems in parallel with the one you are used to seeing.
Goal of my experiment was to see if I could squeeze value using the same input/output concept (I can) but also to make it a little easier for everyone to follow based on feedback ive received.
2 main changes are the max bet is now 4 units, and everything is now based on a 1-100 scoring system. Im dialing up the units because I can justify the risk/reward based of historical record and the success the top of the board has each year (this year especially). So it made sense financially to expand, but also it made sense to keep it simple for anyone not familiar with how the scoring works to evolve towards a 1-100 scoring system. If anything goes over 100 I havent quite gotten that far yet how to handle it, all I know is im betting it. LOL
Got some nice plays on the board still this afternoon, and MNF has the best bet of the week (currently 6-0 YTD, took last weekend off)
Everyone get in there and fire away. Lets beat these bookies up. I hope this information helps and wish you all the best of luck.
Thanks for bringing up the unit betting amounts because I am rolling out a new scoring system this week. I've been test driving a few alternative scoring systems in parallel with the one you are used to seeing.
Goal of my experiment was to see if I could squeeze value using the same input/output concept (I can) but also to make it a little easier for everyone to follow based on feedback ive received.
2 main changes are the max bet is now 4 units, and everything is now based on a 1-100 scoring system. Im dialing up the units because I can justify the risk/reward based of historical record and the success the top of the board has each year (this year especially). So it made sense financially to expand, but also it made sense to keep it simple for anyone not familiar with how the scoring works to evolve towards a 1-100 scoring system. If anything goes over 100 I havent quite gotten that far yet how to handle it, all I know is im betting it. LOL
Got some nice plays on the board still this afternoon, and MNF has the best bet of the week (currently 6-0 YTD, took last weekend off)
Everyone get in there and fire away. Lets beat these bookies up. I hope this information helps and wish you all the best of luck.
| Spreads | Pick Count | Opponent Count | Avg Confidence | Opponent Confidence | Composite Score | Recommended Units |
| Lions -7.5 | 35 | 11 | 5.29 | 4.91 | 93 | 4 (Max) |
| Bengals +4.5 | 35 | 11 | 5.43 | 5.36 | 92 | 4 (Max) |
| Titans +2.5 | 39 | 17 | 5.15 | 5.53 | 75 | 3 |
| Dolphins -7.5 | 33 | 14 | 5.24 | 5.21 | 70 | 3 |
| Seahawks -4 | 32 | 18 | 5.34 | 5.11 | 55 | 2 |
| Saints -1.5 | 28 | 16 | 5.50 | 4.88 | 53 | 2 |
| Panthers +3.5 | 37 | 23 | 5.46 | 5.57 | 52 | 2 |
| Rams +7 | 29 | 20 | 5.24 | 5.15 | 34 | 1 |
| Ravens -9.5 | 24 | 18 | 5.21 | 4.89 | 26 | 0.5 |
| Giants +3 | 25 | 19 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 21 | 0.5 |
| Jags -2 | 28 | 26 | 5.50 | 4.96 | 18 | Lean |
| Broncos +7 | 22 | 20 | 5.23 | 4.75 | 14 | Lean |
| Commanders +7 | 23 | 21 | 5.30 | 4.95 | 13 | Lean |
| Vikings PK | 30 | 26 | 5.20 | 5.69 | 6 | Info |
| Bears +9.5 | 23 | 21 | 4.91 | 5.33 | 1 | Info |
| Totals Of The Week | Pick Count | Opponent Count | Avg Confidence | Opponent Confidence | Composite Score | Recommended Units |
| HOU/CAR Under 43.5 | 7 | 1 | NA | NA | NA | 2 |
| ATL/TEN Under 35.5 | 5 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | 1.5 |
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