Pappy's Picks NFL Week 6
- Thread starter PappyOSU
- Start date
PappyOSU
Pretty much a regular
Broncos +10.5 for 0.5 units
DEN/KC under 47.5 for 0.5 units
Cappers are pretty evenly split here. Computers and trends are driving the plays tonight, each market slightly favors Broncos and Under. Sharp money is slightly in each of these corners as well.
I’ll post results in the more traditional form along with my midweek update coming later tonight.
Good luck everyone
DEN/KC under 47.5 for 0.5 units
Cappers are pretty evenly split here. Computers and trends are driving the plays tonight, each market slightly favors Broncos and Under. Sharp money is slightly in each of these corners as well.
I’ll post results in the more traditional form along with my midweek update coming later tonight.
Good luck everyone
PappyOSU
Pretty much a regular
The Ravens -5.5 will be the London play in the morning for 1.5 units after the below data is normalized and adjusted according to procedure.
This is locked in as an official play and will be included in the final release that is upcoming.
This week I wanted to post a bit more detail to help people understand what goes into this so I can remain transparent. I dont want to confuse the crap out of people either. If you dont care about that and just want picks, well thats what im here for anyways lol. Just refer to the matchup chart below. Left hand side for top single team picks, their opponent and their strength is to the right of them, the final spreads and recommended units to bet will be posted after I squeeze in some sleep
-Final 10% wrap up will start as soon as the alarm goes off and be done 90min before the early games kick off at 10AM (1PM ET). Capturing this valuable information and adjusting to the current market signals are why final plays arent posted until closer to kickoff. Ill always do my best to get this wrapped up and sent asap each morning to allow time to react if you want to follow. We will try again next week for a midweek update post too.
-The Niners are currently the most selected team of the week from the pool of qualifying input sources. The Niners total score will be reduced to account for the early week bets from early week sources according to a line that is now dust in the wind. Each pick is entered according to the spread at the time the pick was made. We've currently seen about 8.5 points of movement since the opener. An enormous amount in the NFL but the final composite score reflects this.
-The Browns are currently the least selected team out of the same pool of qualifying sources. Most Brownie backers have come out of the woods late week after the substantial line movement that has taken place in this game. We will likely start to see sharp money step in at some point by the morning to get some steam points back. Still in this case for this matchup the Niners will almost certainly still be a max bet. Its not always the case where the most popular pick is matched up against the least popular pick either. Everything is independently recorded without bias, and at the end after you smash it all together the cream rises to the top.
-The best pound for pound pick currently is the Jets of all teams. They only have 10 picks from qualifying sources so far which isnt a lot at this stage, but what is keeping them close on the scoreboard right now is the higher quality mix of who/what has picked them, and/or the high confidence level of each pick registered on them. 5 stars or 2 thumbs up or best bet or GOW or high % trends or whatever the language is of whatever picked them.. The scoring system is what gets everything to speak the same language. Once all these inputs speak the same language they can tell the same story.
-If morning data favors the Jets it could pull the Eagles off the board as an official pick, for example. This type of real-time risk managing helps the system stay agile enough to ever completely bomb a weekend. Vast majority of people following expect a big weekend but to me the high floor created by these checks and balances is the best feature of my system in my opinion. I just wanted to highlight this part of the whole thing, its what I'm most proud of.
Example) Last year I finished the week above 60% in either CFB or NFL 16 times, compared to only 4 times finishing either sport below 40%. This allows you to (hopefully) always be in a position to fight another week without having to buy back in more than 1 time. Play the long game, enjoy the ride, stay focused, manage your bank roll balance and stick to your unit amounts.
-The Lions vs Bucs game is a dead heat and currently nets out as a 1 point wash "for information only" type of play. Will be interesting to see if one team can emerge by the morning once gameday sources are all scored. I mention this example because depending on where someone goes to get their pick information, you would either be certain the Lions were pound town or that the Bucs are a layup. I see this being a battle to the last second. Unless someone runs away with the morning scoring this is one ill be staying away from.
I always appreciate feedback too if you want to start seeing more or less information included on the final board. Willing to adjust for the greater good, Im not stubborn.. unless you ask my wife. Talk again soon Go Dolphins
This is locked in as an official play and will be included in the final release that is upcoming.
This week I wanted to post a bit more detail to help people understand what goes into this so I can remain transparent. I dont want to confuse the crap out of people either. If you dont care about that and just want picks, well thats what im here for anyways lol. Just refer to the matchup chart below. Left hand side for top single team picks, their opponent and their strength is to the right of them, the final spreads and recommended units to bet will be posted after I squeeze in some sleep
| Pick | Source Count | Total Score | Avg Score | Opponent | Opponent Count | Total Score | Avg Score |
| Niners | 30 | 161 | 5.37 | Browns | 5 | 23 | 4.60 |
| Bengals | 27 | 141 | 5.22 | Seahawks | 7 | 39 | 5.57 |
| Colts | 24 | 133 | 5.54 | Jags | 15 | 79 | 5.27 |
| Rams | 25 | 131 | 5.24 | Cardinals | 9 | 46 | 5.11 |
| Dolphins | 24 | 130 | 5.42 | Panthers | 9 | 44 | 4.89 |
| Raiders | 24 | 125 | 5.21 | Patriots | 7 | 37 | 5.29 |
| Eagles | 23 | 120 | 5.22 | Jets | 10 | 56 | 5.60 |
| Ravens | 23 | 119 | 5.17 | Titans | 13 | 68 | 5.23 |
| Bears | 21 | 115 | 5.48 | Vikings | 17 | 85 | 5.00 |
| Bills | 20 | 106 | 5.30 | Giants | 12 | 61 | 5.08 |
| Bucs | 19 | 101 | 5.32 | Lions | 19 | 100 | 5.26 |
| Saints | 19 | 98 | 5.16 | Texans | 16 | 82 | 5.13 |
| Falcons | 17 | 93 | 5.47 | Commanders | 17 | 80 | 4.71 |
| Chargers | 18 | 92 | 5.11 | Cowboys | 15 | 82 | 5.47 |
-Final 10% wrap up will start as soon as the alarm goes off and be done 90min before the early games kick off at 10AM (1PM ET). Capturing this valuable information and adjusting to the current market signals are why final plays arent posted until closer to kickoff. Ill always do my best to get this wrapped up and sent asap each morning to allow time to react if you want to follow. We will try again next week for a midweek update post too.
-The Niners are currently the most selected team of the week from the pool of qualifying input sources. The Niners total score will be reduced to account for the early week bets from early week sources according to a line that is now dust in the wind. Each pick is entered according to the spread at the time the pick was made. We've currently seen about 8.5 points of movement since the opener. An enormous amount in the NFL but the final composite score reflects this.
-The Browns are currently the least selected team out of the same pool of qualifying sources. Most Brownie backers have come out of the woods late week after the substantial line movement that has taken place in this game. We will likely start to see sharp money step in at some point by the morning to get some steam points back. Still in this case for this matchup the Niners will almost certainly still be a max bet. Its not always the case where the most popular pick is matched up against the least popular pick either. Everything is independently recorded without bias, and at the end after you smash it all together the cream rises to the top.
-The best pound for pound pick currently is the Jets of all teams. They only have 10 picks from qualifying sources so far which isnt a lot at this stage, but what is keeping them close on the scoreboard right now is the higher quality mix of who/what has picked them, and/or the high confidence level of each pick registered on them. 5 stars or 2 thumbs up or best bet or GOW or high % trends or whatever the language is of whatever picked them.. The scoring system is what gets everything to speak the same language. Once all these inputs speak the same language they can tell the same story.
-If morning data favors the Jets it could pull the Eagles off the board as an official pick, for example. This type of real-time risk managing helps the system stay agile enough to ever completely bomb a weekend. Vast majority of people following expect a big weekend but to me the high floor created by these checks and balances is the best feature of my system in my opinion. I just wanted to highlight this part of the whole thing, its what I'm most proud of.
Example) Last year I finished the week above 60% in either CFB or NFL 16 times, compared to only 4 times finishing either sport below 40%. This allows you to (hopefully) always be in a position to fight another week without having to buy back in more than 1 time. Play the long game, enjoy the ride, stay focused, manage your bank roll balance and stick to your unit amounts.
-The Lions vs Bucs game is a dead heat and currently nets out as a 1 point wash "for information only" type of play. Will be interesting to see if one team can emerge by the morning once gameday sources are all scored. I mention this example because depending on where someone goes to get their pick information, you would either be certain the Lions were pound town or that the Bucs are a layup. I see this being a battle to the last second. Unless someone runs away with the morning scoring this is one ill be staying away from.
I always appreciate feedback too if you want to start seeing more or less information included on the final board. Willing to adjust for the greater good, Im not stubborn.. unless you ask my wife. Talk again soon Go Dolphins
Last edited:
2nd this.
PappyOSU
Pretty much a regular
| Pick | Source Count | Opponent Count | Composite Score | Recommended Units |
| Bengals -3 | 37 | 12 | 75 | 3 Max |
| Niners -9.5 | 37 | 14 | 69 | 3 Max |
| Colts +4.5 | 38 | 16 | 66 | 3 Max |
| Dolphins -14 | 32 | 15 | 51 | 2.5 |
| Raiders -3 | 28 | 13 | 45 | 2 |
| Rams -7 | 29 | 15 | 42 | 2 |
| Eagles -6.5 | 27 | 13 | 39 | 1.5 |
| Ravens -5.5 | 23 | 13 | 30 | 1.5 |
| Saints -2 | 23 | 17 | 20 | 1 |
| Bills -15 | 24 | 18 | 18 | 0.5 |
| Chargers +1.5 | 21 | 18 | 13 | Lean |
| Bears +3 | 24 | 20 | 12 | Lean |
| Bucs +3 | 23 | 22 | 3 | Info |
| Falcons -1.5 | 22 | 21 | 3 | Info |
