Pappy's Picks NFL Conference Titles

[PappyOSU]

1-4-1 last week is not acceptable to anyone who follows. Bad weeks suck. I will use it as tackling fuel to keep trying to improve and learn from them when they happen. Staying focused and LFG

I need to update my record splits and reflect the shit show from last weekend but here is where things stood prior.

RECORD BY TYPE	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	56.5	177	159	6	52.68%
CFB Spread Record	9	76	73	1	51.01%
NFL Spread Record	40.5	88	76	5	53.66%
CFB Totals Record	0	0	0	0	0.00%
NFL Totals Record	7	13	10	0	56.52%

RECORD BY UNIT	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	56.5	177	159	6	52.68%
4 Unit Bets	12	10	7	0	58.82%
3.5 Unit Bets	10.5	4	1	0	80.00%
3 Unit Bets	18	15	9	0	62.50%
2.5 Unit Bets	10	16	12	0	57.14%
2 Unit Bets	24	29	17	2	63.04%
1.5 Unit Bets	-18	21	33	0	38.89%
1 Unit Bets	-2	45	47	2	48.91%
0.5 Unit Bets	2	37	33	2	52.86%

Profit is there and thats the name of the game, but winning percentage is down considerably from prior years. Its just not that sexy to me so I know you guys agree. I cant wait to check under the hood this offseason and figure out why, but you all have my word that I will be relentless in my pursuit to improve this thing every single year.

Ill do my best to post an update tonight but I got some work to do still. Best friend from home is here in Vegas for a convention so ive been getting touristy on The Strip all week and now im broke and sore and tired AF lol.

No excuses play like a champion? Ok fine. Ill get after it and check back soon. LETS GOOOO

 

[PappyOSU]

As of this moment, the Lions and the Ravens each are standing out.. Lions +7 are the best play amongst the early and mid week source inputs.

Personally I think that the Lions are a great play and simply getting too many points in this situation. If you want to get those bets in then I will lean Ravens -3.5 and Lions +7 at the moment. Ill have the official results and plays posted Sunday morning.

Best of luck to everyone

 

[PappyOSU]

Scoring results for NFL Conference Titles are below. Lets do this

Pick	Source Count	Opposing Source Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Chiefs +4.5	34	18	81	3.5
Lions +7.5	36	21	78	3
DET/SF Under 52.5	23	12	54	2
KC/BAL Under 44.5	24	14	49	1.5

Since midweek update the Chiefs and Lions have been surging with sources picking each, which to me was a result of the favorable line movement. This also opened up the door for a few more trends to pop up and further increase each composite score.

Mahomes in the playoffs as an underdog is undefeated straight up. This is a Pat Mahomes pick make no mistake about it. There is quite a bit of Taylor Swift crap too (which was left out of the handicapping completely) Right or wrong. So if you believe that yourself then sprinkle some more on the Chiefs.

Lions are just getting too many points in a game of such importance. Fighting until the end, no matter what. If its close late you will have an underdog with increased backdoor opportunity and a favorite who will be draining clock down the stretch if they have the lead.

Chiefs +4.5 and Lions +7.5 today. Both games go under. LFG

Good luck to everyone, regardless who you are betting I hope this info helps you navigate the waters and manage your risk.