Pappys Picks CFB Week 9 / YTD 79-52-3 ATS (59%)

PappyOSU

Pretty much a regular
Nice to meet you all, my name is Pappy and I'm fairly new as a poster but have followed along here for a while. I created a composite betting algorithm that's now in its 6th year. Think of it as a mutual fund approach to betting. All years have been profitable for both CFB and NFL.

I started the system for myself as a hobby. I have spent countless hours improving it over the years. The past 4 years I started posting the picks on an Ohio St message board community (I went to Ohio State). At the encouragement of others there to expand my audience, here I am. Glad to be a part of the community and let's keep it going. My only goal is to help people win. I greatly respect the hustle of so many people here. This stuff isn't easy, and you will always have my support. Positive vibes only and I'll do what I can to help along the way.

All posted bets and records are against the spread. So no ML no teasers no parlays, though you can certainly take the info and do what you want with it. Current overall YTD records and weekly splits as follows. I'll start an NFL thread as well for those plays specifically.
Unit P&LWinLossPushWin %
Overall YTD 6113279660.83%
CFB ATS Record15.57348358.87%
CFB Totals Record164060.00%
NFL ATS Record424422264.71%
NFL Totals Record2.595160.00%
Unit P&LWinLossPushWin %
Overall YTD6113279660.83%
CFB Week 01.5300100.00%
CFB Week 13124075.00%
CFB Week 22.5106158.82%
CFB Week 3397056.25%
CFB Week 49107058.82%
CFB Week 5-5.51011145.45%
CFB Week 6-879043.75%
CFB Week 75.595160.00%
CFB Week 85.593075.00%
NFL Week 111.5113078.57%
NFL Week 25.584161.54%
NFL Week 314.5102271.43%
NFL Week 47.595064.29%
NFL Week 5694069.23%
NFL Week 6-2.547036.36%
NFL Week 7222050.00%

All weekly picks are documented but can call over some people to confirm if anyone calls BS. Mostly though I'm confident I can just earn your trust here as well.

To quickly explain, after all data entry is complete my system spits out picks according to a custom scoring scale (which translates to recommended units). It cranks out a high volume of picks as you can see. 217 overall bets YTD between NFL and CFB, sitting 1 win shy of 61% overall. I don't know if that type of volume is the best strategy or not, probably not, but it's all tracked and analyzed very closely so as long as it isn't broke I'm not going to break it.

I will post the final CFB plays here in this thread no later than Saturday morning approximately 3 hours before kickoff. Final NFL plays will get posted in that thread no later than Sunday morning approximately 3 hours before kickoff. I'll also use each thread to identify any picks for games played on other nights, and to post some updates (leans) along the way when I can.

Just wanted to introduce myself and say I'm glad to be here. Any initial questions I'm happy to answer.

LFG
 
welcome pappy. Thanks for posting. Looks promising and hope it continues to hold up this well. look forward to your threads here and in NFL. thanks again
 
Appreciate the kind words. Ill do all I can to keep it going and avoid regressing to the mean. The way I see it is to keep approaching each week the exact same way and just stay focused. It doesnt look like there will be a qualifying composite score for any team tonight. ECU had a shot at it but ultimately fell short of an official recommended play. Id consider ECU as a lean at +3.5 but pass on anything below that. I will turn my focus towards tomorrow. There are quite a few Saturday plays that are already starting to rise to the top (UCF). I should be done with the composite scoring and have the picks posted tonight rather than tomorrow morning.

Ill personally throw a couple bucks down on ECU +3.5 just to have some rooting interest tonight, again that's not an official system play though. Best of luck to anyone betting tonight.
 
Final Composite Scores - Week 9 CFB
Pick/SpreadSource CountComposite ScoreRecommended Units
UCF -119693 (Max Bet)
Texas AM +216623 (Max Bet)
Louisville +3.516603 (Max Bet)
Missiouri +3.514552.5
Iowa St +1.514432
Notre Dame +1.512391.5
Texas Tech -211341.5
West Virginia +7.510291
Cal +178281
Miami OH -87261
Pitt +310251
Tulsa +1.57231
UTEP -2.56201
ODU +3.55190.5
EMU +6.56170.5
Ohio St -15.56170.5
Wyoming -11.55160.5
Florida St -23814FYI
SDSU +10614FYI
Temple +14.5614FYI
Kentucky +12713FYI
Marshall -2.5613FYI
Georgia -23.5713FYI
Arizona St -13.5513FYI
Charlotte +16313FYI
USF +17.5313FYI
Kansas St -1.5712FYI
Auburn +3.5412FYI
Illinois -7.5612FYI


Composite system has identified 17 official plays this week with 3 teams achieving a max bet final score. Lots of key sources love the top 3 teams, and very little contrarian input was identified for each opponent. I can get into a bit more detail about the scoring system but in a nutshell the composite score is a confidence ranking that translates directly to a recommended unit play. Go ahead and throw the top 3 or 5 plays in a parlay for the hell of it too. Feeling good about the board this weekend.

I have listed the next best composite scores that just missed the cut for your information only. See above. From this FYI group, I personally like Kansas St, Georgia, Kentucky, and SDSU the most.

Note: No O/U total plays registered this week. Baylor @ Texas Tech OVER 61 was the best of the bunch however and came very close to qualifying. If you want to take a total in CFB this weekend, this would be my choice.

Anyways, best of luck to all who tail (LFG) and also to those on the other side.
 
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