Pappy's Picks CFB Week 0

PappyOSU

Pretty much a regular
Lets get this thing started. Week 0 is upon us and time to start digging into the betting market. We enter a CFB season unlike anything we have seen before. 12 team playoff, massive shakeup in conference realignment scheduling, roster turnover at an all time high thanks to NIL and the Portal. These are quantifiable impacts that we will be addressing all season long and will do our best to account for any new betting edges that present themselves as a result. Lets stay on top of them all as we dive in each week.

For those that are new to betting, also to those who have been betting for a long time, I want to remind you all of the importance of bankroll management. This is the one thing I will focus on as the driving force behind my posted plays. I will be posting straight bets against the spread or over/under the total. -110 odds. Buy in with your starting bankroll at the start of the season, follow the system, and we will cash out profits at the end of the year together.

Also be sure to bet within your comfort level. Set a standard amount you bet on each game (1 unit) that is a predetermined % of your starting bankroll buy-in (usually between 1%-5%). For example ill be starting with a bankroll of $1000 and using a 2% unit bet as my standard amount. So my 1 unit bet is $20. My max bet is set at 4 units, which equals $80. Last year I was up over 50 units ($1000 profit), the year prior I went over 100 units ($2000 profit). I encourage you to trust the process here. Fill in the math for yourself according to your own starting bankroll and your comfortable unit bet amount, but the idea is account longevity. I can go over some bankroll management strategies with those who are interested but the Kelly Criterion is the the current rule of thumb to follow if you want to look that up. We don't buy in a second time though. We cash out at the end.

Ill do my best to roll out some responsible parlay picks as well.. because who doesn't love a good 5 teamer.. but I just caution you that this is not the way to build bankroll and stay profitable. They call parlays sucker bets for a reason, and bookies will gladly take your action on them because they know the house will always win in the long run. So just use caution and my advice is to stick to straight bets as much as possible.

That's all for now. Discussion and diversified perspectives is how we can collaborate and win together. Ill start posting some content later today and throughout the week, including an updated board that is simple and clear to follow. Final plays will be posted early morning Saturday, about 3 hours before the first kickoff to give everyone who wants to follow my composite betting system enough time to finalize their bets for the week. If not following, I encourage you to at least use the data to sharpen your own card for the week. My goal is to help kick some bookie ass.

LFG
 
CFB Week 0 - Final Composite Results

PickSpreadUnitsTotal Composite ScoreSource CountOpposing Source CountPriceSportsBook
SMU-26.5250123-109BetRivers
Hawaii-39.5139101-114FanDuel
Florida St-10.50.5201311-102Sporttrade
New Mexico.+13.5Info753-108FanDuel

Write-Up coming next
 
CFB Week 0 - Final Composite Results


PickSpreadUnitsTotal Composite ScoreSource CountOpposing Source CountPriceSportsBook
SMU-26.5250123-109BetRivers
Hawaii-39.5139101-114FanDuel
Florida St-10.50.5201311-102Sporttrade
New Mexico.+13.5Info753-108FanDuel

Write-Up coming next


ADD IN:

CFB Week 0 - Composite Results for Totals

PickTotalUnitsTotal Composite ScoreSource CountOpposing Source CountPriceSports Book
Florida St/Ga Tech OVER
54.5
1
21
6​
2​
-105​
Caesars
SMU/Nevada UNDER
55.5
0.5
16
5​
2​
-110​
Caesars
 
Results are in. Composite system registered 6 plays overall this week. 4 spreads, 2 totals.

FSU -10.5 (0.5units)

Florida State has a large amount of roster turnover and their OC is suspended for this game. Yes that is true and the main gripe against FSU - reason for backing GT. What I have seen over the years, at least in my experience and memory, is when there is a coaching suspension the team always seems to step up for the temporary coach. Like when Ryan Day stepped in for Urban Meyer and beat the snot out of everyone they played, or when Larry Johnson stepped in for Ryan Day and made Sparty submit. NFL Dan Campbell, Antonio Pierce... You see it a lot. At least my eyes do.

So I think you will get the most from Florida St's 2 deep when the ball in in their possession. For an 18 year old young man that is a golden ticket opportunity to wedge your way into more playing time going forward. Impress the new guy, new guy stands up for you. So the roster turnover ad coaching shakeup for Florida St in this situation I dont necessarily see it as the same disadvantage that others are including in their handicap.

The total for the Florida St game again, FSU has a new coach with his own golden ticket and not going to be afraid to play action chuck it as he leans on his massive advantage he has Run O vs. Run D. I see multiple big plays coming from DJ U and a steady dose of bruises coming from the rushing attack.

Ga Tech has plenty of juice on offense themselves with Haynes King running the show with plenty of starts under his belt. Perhaps some happy feet caused by FSU talented pash rush leads to a bump in GT turnovers which I think ultimately decides this one and keeps FSU ahead ATS

I gotta run to a birthday party for my nephew, will post the next write up on the way lol.

BOL, LFG
 
SMU -26.5
Under 55.5

This is a spot for Nevada that hasn't been kind to them in recent years. Yes there are similarities to Nevada's opener against Kansas last year and they almost came away with a win. I'm just not seeing a repeat of that performance this opener however unless turnover and penalties go in favor of Nevada. Not sure how many of these games were season openers, but if history keeps repeating itself since 2019 Nevada is 1-6 ATS when getting 21 or more, 3-6 ATS as a home dog.

There is some backdoor cover concern as with all games built like this, but I think SMU can keep it moving if it gets to pulling starters. Id expect them to eventually pull their QB and if that happens at least SMU top 7 WRs from last year return to help pick up the slack. QB2 will be throwing to some experienced dudes, and it helps going against one of the worst pass D's in the country. I think experience for SMU helps keep the backdoor shut and they cruise to a methodical beatdown

Best of luck everyone.
 
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