PappyOSU
Pretty much a regular
System finished up 8 units last week and has been on a roll. I’ll post the YTD record splits here when I get home
Couple NFL notes I’ve picked up from my research so far.. these are my own thoughts outside of my composite algorithm.
LAC won last week against Cincy despite not playing their best football according to metrics, BAL have allowed almost twice as many pts this year than LAC and just had emotional drag out fight loss against PIT. Could argue the wrong team is favored here, take the points with LAC
Miami has covered 8 straight games against NE. Simple handicap.
LV and Minshew struggle against blitz and nobody does it more relentlessly than DEN. Bo Nix is on fire. LV might be the worst team in the league and have cluster injuries on D and RB and OL. DEN as healthy as it gets. Great spot for DEN
Since 2022 games at 50 or higher totals are 34-17 to the under. Prime time unders last 10 years 58% but prime time overs this season are 10-4. At 51 pts we see regression of the seasonal “over” trend towards the larger sample size “under” trend in LAC v BAL
NYG locker room is in turmoil over the QB situation and nobody is backing Tommy Cutlets. Fade them
Sea 1-5 ATS at home this year. Flip side is Geno one of the best QBs in NFL this year when not pressured and ARI brings pressure at one of lowest rates in NFL. Tough call on this game
Since bye PHI is undefeated and top team in NFL in EPA on defense. Not stepping in front of this freight train, Fly Eagles.
Double digit favorite on the road Mahomes is 0-4 in his career, he is playing a well rested CAR team off a bye with nothing else to play for and not in a full tank for top pick situation, this is their Super Bowl and keep it within the number
TL/DR? My personal strongest plays are..
LAC
LAC/BAL under
MIA
PHI
DEN (Best bet)
CAR
TB
Couple NFL notes I’ve picked up from my research so far.. these are my own thoughts outside of my composite algorithm.
LAC won last week against Cincy despite not playing their best football according to metrics, BAL have allowed almost twice as many pts this year than LAC and just had emotional drag out fight loss against PIT. Could argue the wrong team is favored here, take the points with LAC
Miami has covered 8 straight games against NE. Simple handicap.
LV and Minshew struggle against blitz and nobody does it more relentlessly than DEN. Bo Nix is on fire. LV might be the worst team in the league and have cluster injuries on D and RB and OL. DEN as healthy as it gets. Great spot for DEN
Since 2022 games at 50 or higher totals are 34-17 to the under. Prime time unders last 10 years 58% but prime time overs this season are 10-4. At 51 pts we see regression of the seasonal “over” trend towards the larger sample size “under” trend in LAC v BAL
NYG locker room is in turmoil over the QB situation and nobody is backing Tommy Cutlets. Fade them
Sea 1-5 ATS at home this year. Flip side is Geno one of the best QBs in NFL this year when not pressured and ARI brings pressure at one of lowest rates in NFL. Tough call on this game
Since bye PHI is undefeated and top team in NFL in EPA on defense. Not stepping in front of this freight train, Fly Eagles.
Double digit favorite on the road Mahomes is 0-4 in his career, he is playing a well rested CAR team off a bye with nothing else to play for and not in a full tank for top pick situation, this is their Super Bowl and keep it within the number
TL/DR? My personal strongest plays are..
LAC
LAC/BAL under
MIA
PHI
DEN (Best bet)
CAR
TB
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