Panthers vs. Saints NFL Week 18 Picks & Prediction: Saints to Race Past Panthers
Best Bet: Saints -4.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Saints 31 - Panthers 20
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, January 8, 2023 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans
Carolina's Key Injuries
I find the odds for this game surprising because of Carolina's key injuries.
Top cover cornerback Jaycee Horn had wrist surgery that will likely keep him out of this game.
Fellow important cornerback Donte Jackson is on Injured Reserve.
Carolina's lack of depth at cornerback was obvious in the sudden dominance of Tom Brady, who in most recent weeks had seemed to be showing his age.
Against Carolina, Brady amassed an absurd 432 yards and three touchdowns while completing 34 of his 45 pass attempts and throwing zero interceptions.
He had fun connecting especially with Mike Evans, who exceeded 200 yards receiving largely thanks to some deep bombs.
The ease with which Tampa Bay scored -- the Bucs scored 30 points for the first time since Week 3 - bodes promise for a Saint offense that, based on previous weeks, may inspire minimal hope.
Chris Olave
Given Carolina's absences in the secondary, it is critical to know whether New Orleans has the weaponry to take advantage.
Expect a big game from Saint wide receiver Chris Olave, whose excellent speed -- his 40-yard dash ranks in the 94thpercentile -- is just one asset of his that makes him dangerous on any given play.
His speed helps explain why he is targeted deep so often, just like Evans was for Tampa Bay last week.
Quick scores, which New Orleans can obtain especially through Olave, are great for the "over," because they mean a lot of points in little time, and they will help New Orleans score more than enough points to cover the spread.
Carolina's Run Defense
The Panther run defense may seem to be of a higher quality based on its most recent results.
But Carolina's run defense has benefitted from encountering softer challenges.
Most recently, Carolina faced a Tampa Bay team that ranks dead-last in rushing yards per game.
In other recent games, the Panthers got to face backup-laden rush attacks like Seattle's, Steeler Najee Harris who is still averaging fewer than four YPC after his great performance last Sunday, and Detroit running backs who had generally been struggling to be efficient.
But when Carolina's run defense was tested, it struggled.
Bengal running back Joe Mixon had his best game of the season against Carolina.
Moreover, Bronco Latavius Murray had his most efficient performance, as measured by YPC, against the Panthers.
Alvin Kamara
With running back Alvin Kamara, New Orleans is well-built to take advantage of Carolina's vulnerable run defense.
Most recently, Kamara's 4.6 YPC helped his team upset top-seeded Philadelphia.
In addition to being a high-level pass-catcher, Kamara has always been notoriously hard to bring down as a runner.
New Orleans Secondary's Outlook
Top cornerback Marshon Lattimore is back -- he played in Week 17 and accrued six tackles against the Eagles.
Lattimore is a four-time Pro Bowler who is always primed to stymy the opponent's top pass-catcher.
Based on yardage total and reception rate, he thrived against all of his opponents besides superstar Justin Jefferson.
Lattimore did not allow more than 17 yards to Mike Evans or Seattle's DK Metcalf.
Falcon Drake London hardly fared better.
Carolina misses having a dangerous wide receiver. Its pass-catching personnel won't challenge New Orleans' healthy secondary.
Saint Pass Rush
Saint cornerbacks will be aided by their pass rush.
Several New Orleans players are dangerous as pass-rushers.
Their leader is Cam Jordan, who has 8.5 sacks to go with his 12 tackles for loss.
He helps New Orleans rank fourth in sack percentage
Problematically for Carolina, quarterback Sam Darnold is completing all of 41.2 percent of his passes under pressure, and Carolina easily ranks in the bottom-half in preventing sacks.
The Verdict
New Orleans will score relentlessly with its key weapons at wide receiver and running back who will take advantage of key absences in Carolina's defense.
The Panthers, led by former backup running backs, lack the weaponry at wide receiver and the competence at quarterback to keep pace.
For the above reasons, expect the Saints to cover, while New Orleans' often quick and explosive scoring will do the most to ensure that the game goes "over" the total.
I recommend that you invest in the "over" in addition to the Saints.
Best Bet: Over 39.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Best Bet: Saints -4.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Saints 31 - Panthers 20
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, January 8, 2023 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans
Carolina's Key Injuries
I find the odds for this game surprising because of Carolina's key injuries.
Top cover cornerback Jaycee Horn had wrist surgery that will likely keep him out of this game.
Fellow important cornerback Donte Jackson is on Injured Reserve.
Carolina's lack of depth at cornerback was obvious in the sudden dominance of Tom Brady, who in most recent weeks had seemed to be showing his age.
Against Carolina, Brady amassed an absurd 432 yards and three touchdowns while completing 34 of his 45 pass attempts and throwing zero interceptions.
He had fun connecting especially with Mike Evans, who exceeded 200 yards receiving largely thanks to some deep bombs.
The ease with which Tampa Bay scored -- the Bucs scored 30 points for the first time since Week 3 - bodes promise for a Saint offense that, based on previous weeks, may inspire minimal hope.
Chris Olave
Given Carolina's absences in the secondary, it is critical to know whether New Orleans has the weaponry to take advantage.
Expect a big game from Saint wide receiver Chris Olave, whose excellent speed -- his 40-yard dash ranks in the 94thpercentile -- is just one asset of his that makes him dangerous on any given play.
His speed helps explain why he is targeted deep so often, just like Evans was for Tampa Bay last week.
Quick scores, which New Orleans can obtain especially through Olave, are great for the "over," because they mean a lot of points in little time, and they will help New Orleans score more than enough points to cover the spread.
Carolina's Run Defense
The Panther run defense may seem to be of a higher quality based on its most recent results.
But Carolina's run defense has benefitted from encountering softer challenges.
Most recently, Carolina faced a Tampa Bay team that ranks dead-last in rushing yards per game.
In other recent games, the Panthers got to face backup-laden rush attacks like Seattle's, Steeler Najee Harris who is still averaging fewer than four YPC after his great performance last Sunday, and Detroit running backs who had generally been struggling to be efficient.
But when Carolina's run defense was tested, it struggled.
Bengal running back Joe Mixon had his best game of the season against Carolina.
Moreover, Bronco Latavius Murray had his most efficient performance, as measured by YPC, against the Panthers.
Alvin Kamara
With running back Alvin Kamara, New Orleans is well-built to take advantage of Carolina's vulnerable run defense.
Most recently, Kamara's 4.6 YPC helped his team upset top-seeded Philadelphia.
In addition to being a high-level pass-catcher, Kamara has always been notoriously hard to bring down as a runner.
New Orleans Secondary's Outlook
Top cornerback Marshon Lattimore is back -- he played in Week 17 and accrued six tackles against the Eagles.
Lattimore is a four-time Pro Bowler who is always primed to stymy the opponent's top pass-catcher.
Based on yardage total and reception rate, he thrived against all of his opponents besides superstar Justin Jefferson.
Lattimore did not allow more than 17 yards to Mike Evans or Seattle's DK Metcalf.
Falcon Drake London hardly fared better.
Carolina misses having a dangerous wide receiver. Its pass-catching personnel won't challenge New Orleans' healthy secondary.
Saint Pass Rush
Saint cornerbacks will be aided by their pass rush.
Several New Orleans players are dangerous as pass-rushers.
Their leader is Cam Jordan, who has 8.5 sacks to go with his 12 tackles for loss.
He helps New Orleans rank fourth in sack percentage
Problematically for Carolina, quarterback Sam Darnold is completing all of 41.2 percent of his passes under pressure, and Carolina easily ranks in the bottom-half in preventing sacks.
The Verdict
New Orleans will score relentlessly with its key weapons at wide receiver and running back who will take advantage of key absences in Carolina's defense.
The Panthers, led by former backup running backs, lack the weaponry at wide receiver and the competence at quarterback to keep pace.
For the above reasons, expect the Saints to cover, while New Orleans' often quick and explosive scoring will do the most to ensure that the game goes "over" the total.
I recommend that you invest in the "over" in addition to the Saints.
Best Bet: Over 39.5 at -110 with BetOnline
