Panthers vs. Buccaneers NFL Week 17 Picks and Predictions: Panthers to Challenge Bucs with Defense
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Panthers 17 -- Buccaneers 14
Best Bet: Under
Tampa Bay's Run Defense
Tampa Bay's run defense might not seem impressive, because it ranks 17thand 17this not a good ranking.
However, consider which rush attacks Tampa Bay's run defense has succeeded against and which ones it has struggled with.
Most recent results illustrate the pattern of Tampa Bay's run defense performances.
In their last two games, the Bucs conceded a modest 79 rushing yards to Arizona's starting running back and, before the Cardinal game, 45 rushing yards to Cincinnati's running back duo.
Before facing the Bengals and Cards, Tampa Bay struggled with San Francisco.
Led by Christian McCaffrey's 119 rushing yards, San Francisco amassed over 200 rushing yards against the Bucs.
These results show that Tampa Bay struggles to stop top-level rushing attacks while it is reliable against ground attacks that are more modest in terms of quality.
This pattern continues -- for example, they couldn't limit Brown star running back Nick Chubb to below 100 yards, but they held New Orleans mediocre-ranked rush attack to 66 yards on 2.6 YPC.
All of this is to say that Tampa Bay's rush attack is not elite but still pretty good.
In determining whether Carolina's rush attack will succeed against the Buc defense, we need to consider whether the quality of Carolina's running personnel places it in a category with Cleveland and San Francisco or with New Orleans and Cincinnati.
Carolina's Rush Attack
The most recent performances of Carolina's running backs create an incredibly misleading impression of their quality.
Three weeks ago, Carolina faced a Seahawk team that had been getting gashed by every opponent -- even the bottom-feeder Ram rush attack, for example, had amassed 171 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC against the Seahawks, before the Panthers got to face them.
Most recently, the Panthers faced a Lion run defense that was disadvantaged by turf conditions in Charlotte for which they were evidently not prepared. The Lions were flat, failing to find their footing in order to disengage from blocks and complete tackles.
In between their games against Detroit and Seattle, Carolina tellingly mustered 21 rushing yards on an atrocious 1.3 YPC against a Steeler team that is allowing about five times more rushing yards per game.
The Panther rush attack will not threaten the Bucs, because it lacks a Nick Chubb or Christian McCaffrey.
In fact, Carolina dealt McCaffrey away and now features his former backups.
Led by Lavonte David and his 8.5 run stuffs plus a forced fumble, Tampa Bay does have the star personnel with which to shut down Carolina's rush attack.
Sam Darnold
For Carolina, quarterback Sam Darnold, whose starting job is perennially uncertain, will have to carry the load by himself.
But Darnold lacks even the confidence to be productive -- he regularly fails to approach 200 passing yards.
Without a strong game from Carolina's rush attack, there's little hope for the whole Panther offense.
Carolina is, in sum, playing with many players in key positions who would be backups on most other teams, and Tampa Bay is equipped to stop them.
Tom Brady's Struggles
Tampa Bay's pass attack will likewise struggle to sustain drives, especially since he gets so little run support from a starting running back who averages 3.6 YPC.
Tom Brady has failed to avoid throwing interceptions even while he's avoided being too daring.
Despite often settling for shorter passes -- Brady ranks 33rd in yards per attempt -- he has thrown two interceptions in each of his last three games.
Jaycee Horn
Despite being listed as 'doubtful' prior to last weekend, top Panther cornerback Jaycee Horn played against Detroit.
Horn's health is crucial because he ranks eighth in passer rating when targeted.
Despite spending much time shadowing the likes of Falcon Drake London and 49er Deebo Samuel, Horn rarely allows yards.
His ability to lock down opposing wide receivers is crucial against a Buc pass attack that, held back by the aging and wearing Brady, already struggles to be productive.
The Verdict
Expect a low-scoring game in which either team lacks the resources to pull away.
I don't see why Carolina should be an underdog -- the Panthers have the stronger rush attack, a pass attack unimpeded by an interception-prone quarterback, and at least as able of a defense.
Carolina will win a narrow one. But we might as well take the free points.
Best Bet: Panthers ATS
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Panthers 17 -- Buccaneers 14
Best Bet: Under
Tampa Bay's Run Defense
Tampa Bay's run defense might not seem impressive, because it ranks 17thand 17this not a good ranking.
However, consider which rush attacks Tampa Bay's run defense has succeeded against and which ones it has struggled with.
Most recent results illustrate the pattern of Tampa Bay's run defense performances.
In their last two games, the Bucs conceded a modest 79 rushing yards to Arizona's starting running back and, before the Cardinal game, 45 rushing yards to Cincinnati's running back duo.
Before facing the Bengals and Cards, Tampa Bay struggled with San Francisco.
Led by Christian McCaffrey's 119 rushing yards, San Francisco amassed over 200 rushing yards against the Bucs.
These results show that Tampa Bay struggles to stop top-level rushing attacks while it is reliable against ground attacks that are more modest in terms of quality.
This pattern continues -- for example, they couldn't limit Brown star running back Nick Chubb to below 100 yards, but they held New Orleans mediocre-ranked rush attack to 66 yards on 2.6 YPC.
All of this is to say that Tampa Bay's rush attack is not elite but still pretty good.
In determining whether Carolina's rush attack will succeed against the Buc defense, we need to consider whether the quality of Carolina's running personnel places it in a category with Cleveland and San Francisco or with New Orleans and Cincinnati.
Carolina's Rush Attack
The most recent performances of Carolina's running backs create an incredibly misleading impression of their quality.
Three weeks ago, Carolina faced a Seahawk team that had been getting gashed by every opponent -- even the bottom-feeder Ram rush attack, for example, had amassed 171 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC against the Seahawks, before the Panthers got to face them.
Most recently, the Panthers faced a Lion run defense that was disadvantaged by turf conditions in Charlotte for which they were evidently not prepared. The Lions were flat, failing to find their footing in order to disengage from blocks and complete tackles.
In between their games against Detroit and Seattle, Carolina tellingly mustered 21 rushing yards on an atrocious 1.3 YPC against a Steeler team that is allowing about five times more rushing yards per game.
The Panther rush attack will not threaten the Bucs, because it lacks a Nick Chubb or Christian McCaffrey.
In fact, Carolina dealt McCaffrey away and now features his former backups.
Led by Lavonte David and his 8.5 run stuffs plus a forced fumble, Tampa Bay does have the star personnel with which to shut down Carolina's rush attack.
Sam Darnold
For Carolina, quarterback Sam Darnold, whose starting job is perennially uncertain, will have to carry the load by himself.
But Darnold lacks even the confidence to be productive -- he regularly fails to approach 200 passing yards.
Without a strong game from Carolina's rush attack, there's little hope for the whole Panther offense.
Carolina is, in sum, playing with many players in key positions who would be backups on most other teams, and Tampa Bay is equipped to stop them.
Tom Brady's Struggles
Tampa Bay's pass attack will likewise struggle to sustain drives, especially since he gets so little run support from a starting running back who averages 3.6 YPC.
Tom Brady has failed to avoid throwing interceptions even while he's avoided being too daring.
Despite often settling for shorter passes -- Brady ranks 33rd in yards per attempt -- he has thrown two interceptions in each of his last three games.
Jaycee Horn
Despite being listed as 'doubtful' prior to last weekend, top Panther cornerback Jaycee Horn played against Detroit.
Horn's health is crucial because he ranks eighth in passer rating when targeted.
Despite spending much time shadowing the likes of Falcon Drake London and 49er Deebo Samuel, Horn rarely allows yards.
His ability to lock down opposing wide receivers is crucial against a Buc pass attack that, held back by the aging and wearing Brady, already struggles to be productive.
The Verdict
Expect a low-scoring game in which either team lacks the resources to pull away.
I don't see why Carolina should be an underdog -- the Panthers have the stronger rush attack, a pass attack unimpeded by an interception-prone quarterback, and at least as able of a defense.
Carolina will win a narrow one. But we might as well take the free points.
Best Bet: Panthers ATS
