Padres vs. Phillies NLCS Game 3 Pick and Prediction
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, October 21, 2022 at 7:37 p.m. ET (FS1) at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Who Starts for San Diego?
Joe Musgrove starts for the Padres today.
Musgrove is San Diego's most profitable pitcher.
Overall, San Diego is yielding +6.3 units in his starts.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game today, Musgrove has been a road warrior.
Musgrove on the Road
San Diego is yielding +7.2 units in his road starts.
This is odd to say, because Petco Park, home of the Padres, is known as a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but Musgrove has been performing better away from home.
Some competitors relish hostile environments, and Musgrove is certainly at least comfortable away from the Padre faithful.
It's not like his competition away from home has been soft, either.
Outside of Petco Park, victims of his include the Mets and Dodgers.
Musgrove's Recent Form
Musgrove has been at his best in his most recent starts, achieving his peak form at just the right time of year.
His ERA is 1.56 in his last seven starts.
Musgrove's excellent form has contributed to the following ongoing trend: San Diego is 3-0 in Musgrove's last three starts.
Two of those three opponents were playoff teams, the Mets and Dodgers.
In his last six starts, Musgrove has allowed a combined total of three earned runs.
Meanwhile, he lasted at least six innings in five of those starts.
Musgrove's Pitch Quality
Part of what Musgrove's strength consists in is the unique variety in his arsenal.
He doesn't throw a single pitch as much as 25 percent of the time.
Specifically, he features a slider, fastball, cutter, and curveball between 19.0 and 25.5 percent of the time.
This variety makes him less predictable.
Difficult to Hit
Musgrove thrives because these his pitches are difficult to hit.
His current superb form persists against teams, like the Dodgers, who match up excellently against him on paper in that they have an eminently high slugging rate against his pitches thrown by righties.
Obviously, other teams repeatedly face inferior iterations of his pitches thrown by other pitchers, which is why they hit other pitchers well but not Musgrove.
Two of Musgrove's pitch characteristics are frequent borderline location, which is evident in heat maps, and a high spin rate.
His fastball spin rate, for example, is in the 98thpercentile.
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Ranger Suarez starts for Philadelphia today.
While the Philadelphia money-line is chalked because the Phillies are playing home, this doesn't make sense to me, because of Musgrove's road warrior status and also because of Suarez.
Suarez yields a 4.27 home ERA compared to a 3.20 road ERA, and his win percentage is accordingly higher away from home.
Suarez vs. Padre Batters
A southpaw, Suarez features a sinker, changeup, and fastball.
These three pitches combine to make up about 80 percent of his arsenal.
Padre batters merit optimism tonight because, outside of their uniquely pitcher-friendly ballpark, they rank 4thin slugging .445 against Suarez's favorite pitches from lefties.
Bullpen Advantage
In terms of ERA, Philadelphia has one of baseball's worst bullpens.
Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez can be effective, but, if they are effective, Philadelphia's bullpen output is highly problematic outside of the two innings pitched by those two pitchers.
For example, they've converted Zach Eflin to a reliever, and his ERA is 8.31 in 4.1 postseason innings.
With a stronger start from Musgrove, San Diego will be able to focus on having its best relievers secure a victory.
Overall, San Diego's bullpen is statistically anyhow much more effective than Philadelphia's.
The Verdict
While I think that San Diego wins this game by multiple runs, the Padre money-line is so cheap that it is hard for me, purely on principle, to advocate for the run-line.
But what sounds like a good idea is to be a bit greedy and to also invest a bit extra in the Padre run-line.
So let's put our one standard unit on the San Diego money-line and sprinkle a quarter unit on the Padre run-line, for a big night.
Score Prediction: Padres 6 - Phillies 1
Best Bet: Padres ML at -109 with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, October 21, 2022 at 7:37 p.m. ET (FS1) at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Who Starts for San Diego?
Joe Musgrove starts for the Padres today.
Musgrove is San Diego's most profitable pitcher.
Overall, San Diego is yielding +6.3 units in his starts.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game today, Musgrove has been a road warrior.
Musgrove on the Road
San Diego is yielding +7.2 units in his road starts.
This is odd to say, because Petco Park, home of the Padres, is known as a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but Musgrove has been performing better away from home.
Some competitors relish hostile environments, and Musgrove is certainly at least comfortable away from the Padre faithful.
It's not like his competition away from home has been soft, either.
Outside of Petco Park, victims of his include the Mets and Dodgers.
Musgrove's Recent Form
Musgrove has been at his best in his most recent starts, achieving his peak form at just the right time of year.
His ERA is 1.56 in his last seven starts.
Musgrove's excellent form has contributed to the following ongoing trend: San Diego is 3-0 in Musgrove's last three starts.
Two of those three opponents were playoff teams, the Mets and Dodgers.
In his last six starts, Musgrove has allowed a combined total of three earned runs.
Meanwhile, he lasted at least six innings in five of those starts.
Musgrove's Pitch Quality
Part of what Musgrove's strength consists in is the unique variety in his arsenal.
He doesn't throw a single pitch as much as 25 percent of the time.
Specifically, he features a slider, fastball, cutter, and curveball between 19.0 and 25.5 percent of the time.
This variety makes him less predictable.
Difficult to Hit
Musgrove thrives because these his pitches are difficult to hit.
His current superb form persists against teams, like the Dodgers, who match up excellently against him on paper in that they have an eminently high slugging rate against his pitches thrown by righties.
Obviously, other teams repeatedly face inferior iterations of his pitches thrown by other pitchers, which is why they hit other pitchers well but not Musgrove.
Two of Musgrove's pitch characteristics are frequent borderline location, which is evident in heat maps, and a high spin rate.
His fastball spin rate, for example, is in the 98thpercentile.
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Ranger Suarez starts for Philadelphia today.
While the Philadelphia money-line is chalked because the Phillies are playing home, this doesn't make sense to me, because of Musgrove's road warrior status and also because of Suarez.
Suarez yields a 4.27 home ERA compared to a 3.20 road ERA, and his win percentage is accordingly higher away from home.
Suarez vs. Padre Batters
A southpaw, Suarez features a sinker, changeup, and fastball.
These three pitches combine to make up about 80 percent of his arsenal.
Padre batters merit optimism tonight because, outside of their uniquely pitcher-friendly ballpark, they rank 4thin slugging .445 against Suarez's favorite pitches from lefties.
Bullpen Advantage
In terms of ERA, Philadelphia has one of baseball's worst bullpens.
Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez can be effective, but, if they are effective, Philadelphia's bullpen output is highly problematic outside of the two innings pitched by those two pitchers.
For example, they've converted Zach Eflin to a reliever, and his ERA is 8.31 in 4.1 postseason innings.
With a stronger start from Musgrove, San Diego will be able to focus on having its best relievers secure a victory.
Overall, San Diego's bullpen is statistically anyhow much more effective than Philadelphia's.
The Verdict
While I think that San Diego wins this game by multiple runs, the Padre money-line is so cheap that it is hard for me, purely on principle, to advocate for the run-line.
But what sounds like a good idea is to be a bit greedy and to also invest a bit extra in the Padre run-line.
So let's put our one standard unit on the San Diego money-line and sprinkle a quarter unit on the Padre run-line, for a big night.
Score Prediction: Padres 6 - Phillies 1
Best Bet: Padres ML at -109 with BetOnline
