Padres vs. Giants: MLB Best Bets
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, September 27, 2020 at 3:05 p.m. ET
Smiling Smyly
San Francisco starter Drew Smyly (0-0, 3.38 ERA) has been pitching even better than his surface stats indicate.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is 1.91 while his xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league average ratio of fly balls to home runs is 2.75.
In all four of his starts, his FIP was under 3.00.
Part of Smyly’s success is evident in his improved command. He’s walking fewer batters than last year and giving up .98 fewer home runs per nine innings than his career average.
Most noticeably, he is striking out 13.40 batters per nine innings, which are 4.52 more than his career average.
Smyly’s Stuff
One thing that Smyly is doing differently this year is he’s throwing more of his curveball.
This adjustment in pitch usage frequency is intelligent because his curveball has become more lethal this season.
Right now, batters are hitting .175 against this pitch.
It has greater velocity — last year, his curve averaged 77.58 mph while, this year, it averages 80.40 mph.
Moreover, Smyly’s curveball enjoys more movement and more location.
When he throws it for a strike, it lands in the lowest row of the strike zone with 56 percent frequency.
Measured by whiff percentage, this pitch is his most reliable one also because, as attested by visual pitching charts, he’s great at just missing the strike zone.
Batters struggle to discern, given its movement, tight location, and increased velocity, whether this pitch will land for a strike or not. So they’ll either whiff or make weak contact leading to an out.
There is no escape for them from this great pitch because Smyly is comfortable throwing it in all parts of the count both to lefties and to righties.
Smyly vs Padre Batters
In addition to his curveball, Smyly throws his fastball with 44 percent frequency.
So his curveball and fastball combine to make up 81.5 percent of his arsenal. He also mixes in a cutter with 18.5 percent frequency that, in terms of opposing BA, is actually his best pitch.
I like Smyly against Padre batters today because they rank 20th in slugging against his two favorite pitches combined from lefties.
When one also accounts for his anyhow solid cutter, the Padres drop to 24th in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
Who Will Start For San Diego?
Right now, San Diego has not announced its starter. I doubt that anyone on that team even has an answer to this question right now!
Let’s rule out some options.
Zach Davies will pitch today (Saturday).
Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet pitched on Friday.
Mike Clevinger, who normally follows Davies, was pulled after pitching an inning on Wednesday due to an injury that is still afflicting him.
Rookie Adrian Morejon does have the endurance to be a starter and he came in for Clevinger. But he only lasted one inning as he got rocked while throwing 35 pitches.
Paddack, Lamet, and Davies will be too tired to pitch tomorrow (Sunday). Clevinger will probably not be fit. Morejon may be ready.
Salivating Options
The rookie Morejon could start. Joey Lucchesi could as well.
Lucchesi has been bouncing back and forth between San Diego and San Diego’s alternate training site at the University of San Diego.
As evidenced by his current 7.94 ERA, Lucchesi is not fit to pitch professionally right now.
Morejon, with his 4.86 ERA, doesn’t look any more appealing primarily because he is a lefty (as is Lucchesi).
Giant batters are raking against lefties — they rank fifth in hitting .271 against them.
Luis Patino could start. His ERA, FIP, and xFIP are over 5.00.
So no matter what, the Padres will have to rely on an inferior option — one that is inferior by MLB standards and one that is certainly inferior to Clevinger.
They therefore find themselves in a uniquely tough situation that we want to exploit.
Giant Batters
San Francisco hitters are in a superb spot in their home ballpark which they favor to a unique degree.
In San Francisco, they’re hitting .277 and slug .496.
Their comfort at home is difference-making particularly if Patino starts.
Patino is a flamethrower as he relies over 60 percent of the time on his high-velocity fastball.
But the Giants rank fifth in slugging .591 against the high-velo (94-98 mph) fastball from righties at home.
As for batters, look out for Brandon Belt. Belt is hitting well right now and he slugs .758 at home.
The Verdict
The Giants will send an underrated starter in Smyly while the Padres counter with an unwanted unknown that they will match up well and better against at home.
I favor a first-half bet in order to exploit San Francisco’s unique edge in starting pitching.
Best Bet: Giants First-Half ML (Odds TBA)
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, September 27, 2020 at 3:05 p.m. ET
Smiling Smyly
San Francisco starter Drew Smyly (0-0, 3.38 ERA) has been pitching even better than his surface stats indicate.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is 1.91 while his xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league average ratio of fly balls to home runs is 2.75.
In all four of his starts, his FIP was under 3.00.
Part of Smyly’s success is evident in his improved command. He’s walking fewer batters than last year and giving up .98 fewer home runs per nine innings than his career average.
Most noticeably, he is striking out 13.40 batters per nine innings, which are 4.52 more than his career average.
Smyly’s Stuff
One thing that Smyly is doing differently this year is he’s throwing more of his curveball.
This adjustment in pitch usage frequency is intelligent because his curveball has become more lethal this season.
Right now, batters are hitting .175 against this pitch.
It has greater velocity — last year, his curve averaged 77.58 mph while, this year, it averages 80.40 mph.
Moreover, Smyly’s curveball enjoys more movement and more location.
When he throws it for a strike, it lands in the lowest row of the strike zone with 56 percent frequency.
Measured by whiff percentage, this pitch is his most reliable one also because, as attested by visual pitching charts, he’s great at just missing the strike zone.
Batters struggle to discern, given its movement, tight location, and increased velocity, whether this pitch will land for a strike or not. So they’ll either whiff or make weak contact leading to an out.
There is no escape for them from this great pitch because Smyly is comfortable throwing it in all parts of the count both to lefties and to righties.
Smyly vs Padre Batters
In addition to his curveball, Smyly throws his fastball with 44 percent frequency.
So his curveball and fastball combine to make up 81.5 percent of his arsenal. He also mixes in a cutter with 18.5 percent frequency that, in terms of opposing BA, is actually his best pitch.
I like Smyly against Padre batters today because they rank 20th in slugging against his two favorite pitches combined from lefties.
When one also accounts for his anyhow solid cutter, the Padres drop to 24th in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
Who Will Start For San Diego?
Right now, San Diego has not announced its starter. I doubt that anyone on that team even has an answer to this question right now!
Let’s rule out some options.
Zach Davies will pitch today (Saturday).
Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet pitched on Friday.
Mike Clevinger, who normally follows Davies, was pulled after pitching an inning on Wednesday due to an injury that is still afflicting him.
Rookie Adrian Morejon does have the endurance to be a starter and he came in for Clevinger. But he only lasted one inning as he got rocked while throwing 35 pitches.
Paddack, Lamet, and Davies will be too tired to pitch tomorrow (Sunday). Clevinger will probably not be fit. Morejon may be ready.
Salivating Options
The rookie Morejon could start. Joey Lucchesi could as well.
Lucchesi has been bouncing back and forth between San Diego and San Diego’s alternate training site at the University of San Diego.
As evidenced by his current 7.94 ERA, Lucchesi is not fit to pitch professionally right now.
Morejon, with his 4.86 ERA, doesn’t look any more appealing primarily because he is a lefty (as is Lucchesi).
Giant batters are raking against lefties — they rank fifth in hitting .271 against them.
Luis Patino could start. His ERA, FIP, and xFIP are over 5.00.
So no matter what, the Padres will have to rely on an inferior option — one that is inferior by MLB standards and one that is certainly inferior to Clevinger.
They therefore find themselves in a uniquely tough situation that we want to exploit.
Giant Batters
San Francisco hitters are in a superb spot in their home ballpark which they favor to a unique degree.
In San Francisco, they’re hitting .277 and slug .496.
Their comfort at home is difference-making particularly if Patino starts.
Patino is a flamethrower as he relies over 60 percent of the time on his high-velocity fastball.
But the Giants rank fifth in slugging .591 against the high-velo (94-98 mph) fastball from righties at home.
As for batters, look out for Brandon Belt. Belt is hitting well right now and he slugs .758 at home.
The Verdict
The Giants will send an underrated starter in Smyly while the Padres counter with an unwanted unknown that they will match up well and better against at home.
I favor a first-half bet in order to exploit San Francisco’s unique edge in starting pitching.
Best Bet: Giants First-Half ML (Odds TBA)
