Padres vs. Giants MLB Odds, Preview, and Prediction
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Playoff Implications
Today's game between San Diego and San Francisco is important in view of what's at stake for the Giants.
Currently, San Francisco leads the Dodgers by one game in the NL West: the Giants are 106-55 while the Dodgers are 105-56.
This is the last game of the regular season and the Giants have control over their own destiny.
If they win today's game, then they will clinch the NL West.
If they lose this game against the Padres and if the Dodgers beat Milwaukee, then a one-game tiebreaker would take place tomorrow in order to decide who will win the NL West and who would get the first wildcard spot.
A popular betting angle is to bet on the team that needs to win. But this repeatedly proves to be a fallacious angle.
In the Giants' case, they are in this position -- needing a win (or Dodgers loss) today -- precisely because this angle did not work out: yesterday, the Padres beat San Francisco 3-2 in extras.
So, the Padres are still trying. They are playing spoiler without anything to lose. They would like to finish their season off with a win.
I am not saying to play the Padres. Instead, I recommend to avoid playing a side altogether. I think that it is best to attack the total for this game.
Reiss Knehr
You may not know who Padre starter Reiss Knehr is.
He is a 24-year old who repeatedly bounces around from Triple-A to the majors.
After a month of being back in the minors, he pitched on September 24 and then September 28 for the Padres.
Besides his awful 4.85 ERA, what is arguably most worrisome about Knehr is the trouble that he has throwing strikes. He allows a ridiculous 6.23 walks per nine innings.
Part of his high walk rate is due to a lack of control. Part of it is also a consequence of his pitching strategy.
Heat maps show that Knehr likes to work the boundaries of the strike zone. Naturally, pitchers who try to locate more of their pitches so far away from the middle of the plate will walk more batters.
Knehr's second-biggest problem is his lack of quality pitches.
His cutter is nearly his second-most frequent pitch. Together with his slider, both pitches combine to make up 24 percent of his arsenal.
When he throws either pitch, he gets himself into a lot of trouble. Opponents slug .444 against his slider and .571 against his cutter.
While it's a good thing, for Knehr, that he is trying to throw more than two pitches so that he has more variety to offer, he needs to be more effective with his cutter and slider.
Knehr vs. Giant Batters
I like Giant batters today because they match up excellently against this undeveloped youngster.
Against Knehr's two favorite pitches, the fastball and change-up, thrown by righties, San Francisco ranks third in slugging .491.
Logan Webb
You might have heard how Giant starter Logan Webb is enjoying a strong second half of the season.
While this is statistically true, his strong second half is primarily a product of the success that he found in August.
So far, as measured by ERA, September is his second-worst month of the season.
He owes his bad September to two starts in particular as he yielded an ERA over 7.00 in both of those starts.
One of those awful starts came against the Cubs, the other against these Padres.
Webb vs. Padre Batters
I like San Diego batters today because so many of them enjoy strong numbers against Webb.
Four different Padre players -- Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar, Trent Grisham, and Eric Hosmer bat over .400 in at least five career at-bats against Webb.
Likewise, four Padre players -- Myers, Profar, Grisham, and Jake Cronenworth -- slug at least .500 in five or more career at-bats against the Giant starter.
The Verdict
Whether the Giants clinch the NL West today is a question I'm happy to sidestep in view of the strong numbers that San Diego batters have cultivated against Webb.
Overall, the Padres hit .370 and slug .519 in 54 combined at-bats against Webb.
Meanwhile, San Diego's starter is an unreliable youngster who Giant batters match up well against.
For the above reasons, expect a higher-scoring affair.
Best Bet: First-Half Over (Odds TBA)
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Playoff Implications
Today's game between San Diego and San Francisco is important in view of what's at stake for the Giants.
Currently, San Francisco leads the Dodgers by one game in the NL West: the Giants are 106-55 while the Dodgers are 105-56.
This is the last game of the regular season and the Giants have control over their own destiny.
If they win today's game, then they will clinch the NL West.
If they lose this game against the Padres and if the Dodgers beat Milwaukee, then a one-game tiebreaker would take place tomorrow in order to decide who will win the NL West and who would get the first wildcard spot.
A popular betting angle is to bet on the team that needs to win. But this repeatedly proves to be a fallacious angle.
In the Giants' case, they are in this position -- needing a win (or Dodgers loss) today -- precisely because this angle did not work out: yesterday, the Padres beat San Francisco 3-2 in extras.
So, the Padres are still trying. They are playing spoiler without anything to lose. They would like to finish their season off with a win.
I am not saying to play the Padres. Instead, I recommend to avoid playing a side altogether. I think that it is best to attack the total for this game.
Reiss Knehr
You may not know who Padre starter Reiss Knehr is.
He is a 24-year old who repeatedly bounces around from Triple-A to the majors.
After a month of being back in the minors, he pitched on September 24 and then September 28 for the Padres.
Besides his awful 4.85 ERA, what is arguably most worrisome about Knehr is the trouble that he has throwing strikes. He allows a ridiculous 6.23 walks per nine innings.
Part of his high walk rate is due to a lack of control. Part of it is also a consequence of his pitching strategy.
Heat maps show that Knehr likes to work the boundaries of the strike zone. Naturally, pitchers who try to locate more of their pitches so far away from the middle of the plate will walk more batters.
Knehr's second-biggest problem is his lack of quality pitches.
His cutter is nearly his second-most frequent pitch. Together with his slider, both pitches combine to make up 24 percent of his arsenal.
When he throws either pitch, he gets himself into a lot of trouble. Opponents slug .444 against his slider and .571 against his cutter.
While it's a good thing, for Knehr, that he is trying to throw more than two pitches so that he has more variety to offer, he needs to be more effective with his cutter and slider.
Knehr vs. Giant Batters
I like Giant batters today because they match up excellently against this undeveloped youngster.
Against Knehr's two favorite pitches, the fastball and change-up, thrown by righties, San Francisco ranks third in slugging .491.
Logan Webb
You might have heard how Giant starter Logan Webb is enjoying a strong second half of the season.
While this is statistically true, his strong second half is primarily a product of the success that he found in August.
So far, as measured by ERA, September is his second-worst month of the season.
He owes his bad September to two starts in particular as he yielded an ERA over 7.00 in both of those starts.
One of those awful starts came against the Cubs, the other against these Padres.
Webb vs. Padre Batters
I like San Diego batters today because so many of them enjoy strong numbers against Webb.
Four different Padre players -- Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar, Trent Grisham, and Eric Hosmer bat over .400 in at least five career at-bats against Webb.
Likewise, four Padre players -- Myers, Profar, Grisham, and Jake Cronenworth -- slug at least .500 in five or more career at-bats against the Giant starter.
The Verdict
Whether the Giants clinch the NL West today is a question I'm happy to sidestep in view of the strong numbers that San Diego batters have cultivated against Webb.
Overall, the Padres hit .370 and slug .519 in 54 combined at-bats against Webb.
Meanwhile, San Diego's starter is an unreliable youngster who Giant batters match up well against.
For the above reasons, expect a higher-scoring affair.
Best Bet: First-Half Over (Odds TBA)
