Padres vs. Dodgers Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Pick
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Joe Musgrove’s Improvement
Following a three-year stint in lowly Pittsburgh, Padre Starter Joe Musgrove has improved so massively that MLB Oddsmakers are struggling to account for how good he is.
After four starts, his strikeout, walk, and opposing home run rates are better than they ever had been at any point in his career.
Likewise, he is yielding a career-low 1.04 ERA and he is also yielding career-lows in metrics like FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding). His FIP is 2.21.
Given his strong and sudden improvement now that he’s out of Pittsburgh, the “under” is a perfect 4-0 in his starts.
Musgrove’s Stronger Pitch Quality
Musgrove’s pitching arsenal is characterized by variety. He does not throw a single pitch more than 27 percent of the time.
Conversely, he throws five different pitches — a slider, cutter, curveball, 4-seam fastball, and change-up — with over 10 percent frequency.
His individual pitches have improved this year in different respects. For example, his slider is averaging 1.2 more MPH per pitch this year than ti did last year.
A similar increase in velocity is observable in his other pitches.
One pitch stands out as being important to him this year: his cutter. His cutter is the biggest reason for his improved variety.
Whereas he threw this pitch 6.4 percent of the time last year, he is throwing it with 24.8 percent frequency this year.
Because he is throwing more cutters, he is not having to rely as often on any single or mixture of pitches.
This increased cutter frequency is paying off as a result of its improved velocity and its new kind of vertical and horizontal movement.
Last year, his cutter yielded a .429 BA. This year, opponents are hitting .200 against it.
Even though his cutter is strong, it’s still only one of his “weaker” pitches. His slider and curveball, especially, have been more effective.
Musgrove vs. Dodger Batters
Because he weds variety with quality, he is effective against both left- and right-handed batters.
He possesses two classic weapons against opposite-handed batters, which he is more likely to employ against them: his curveball and change-up.
Opponents hit .118 against the former and .000 against the latter.
So he’s yielding a .279 slugging rate against lefties and a .179 slugging rate against righties.
This ability to own both lefties and righties is crucial against a Dodger lineup that is balanced in its reliance on a mixture of bigger-named left- and right-handed batters.
While the Dodgers do own good career numbers against Musgrove, 34 at-bats is a meaninglessly small data sample.
Plus, they have not faced Musgrove in his clearly new.and improved form.
Form-wise, L.A. does not appear in good shape, relying on later innings to have exceeded three runs one time in its past seven games.
Dustin May
Dodger starter Dustin May resembles Musgrove in that he is producing career-best statistics.
Most notably, he is allowing a career-low 2.93 ERA.
Moreover, his strikeout rate has exploded to 12.91 per nine innings.
Given his improvement, the “under” is 2-1 in his starts so far, with the one “over” coming back in early April when the Dodger lineup was experiencing strong form.
All of May’s pitches are yielding higher whiff percentages.
But his cutter is most responsible for May’s strikeout explosion, improving from a 23 percent whiff rate last year to a 50 percent one this year.
He’s improved the movement of his cutter. This pitch’s velocity — as long as that of his other primary pitches (sinker, curveball, and 4-seam fastball) places it among league leaders.
In addition to producing top-level movement in three of his four pitches, he has adjusted his pitch sequencing in multiple respects.
May will throw more breaking balls when ahead in the count, but still mixes in a 4-seam fastball that helps him remain less predictable.
May vs. Padre Batters
Based on FIP, May’s weakness is against left-handed batters.
I like Musgrove tonight because Padre batters lack the personnel to exploit this weakness.
Their biggest-named batter is a righty, Manny Machado.
Two of their lefties — Eric Hosmer and Trent Grisham — have numbers that appear worrisome.
But those worrisome numbers primarily reflect early-season surges. Both hitters have cooled off considerably since the early season.
Hosmer is experiencing a six-game streak without an extra-base hit while Grisham, in a similar vein, has seen his slugging rate drop 67 points in this series.
Verdict
Both Musgrove and May are reliable “under” pitchers because they have improved significantly this year.
Their positive form will continue, Musgrove’s against a Dodger lineup that is struggling to hit against any starter, May’s against a Padre lineup that lacks in-form lefties.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4 at -125 with Bovada
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Joe Musgrove’s Improvement
Following a three-year stint in lowly Pittsburgh, Padre Starter Joe Musgrove has improved so massively that MLB Oddsmakers are struggling to account for how good he is.
After four starts, his strikeout, walk, and opposing home run rates are better than they ever had been at any point in his career.
Likewise, he is yielding a career-low 1.04 ERA and he is also yielding career-lows in metrics like FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding). His FIP is 2.21.
Given his strong and sudden improvement now that he’s out of Pittsburgh, the “under” is a perfect 4-0 in his starts.
Musgrove’s Stronger Pitch Quality
Musgrove’s pitching arsenal is characterized by variety. He does not throw a single pitch more than 27 percent of the time.
Conversely, he throws five different pitches — a slider, cutter, curveball, 4-seam fastball, and change-up — with over 10 percent frequency.
His individual pitches have improved this year in different respects. For example, his slider is averaging 1.2 more MPH per pitch this year than ti did last year.
A similar increase in velocity is observable in his other pitches.
One pitch stands out as being important to him this year: his cutter. His cutter is the biggest reason for his improved variety.
Whereas he threw this pitch 6.4 percent of the time last year, he is throwing it with 24.8 percent frequency this year.
Because he is throwing more cutters, he is not having to rely as often on any single or mixture of pitches.
This increased cutter frequency is paying off as a result of its improved velocity and its new kind of vertical and horizontal movement.
Last year, his cutter yielded a .429 BA. This year, opponents are hitting .200 against it.
Even though his cutter is strong, it’s still only one of his “weaker” pitches. His slider and curveball, especially, have been more effective.
Musgrove vs. Dodger Batters
Because he weds variety with quality, he is effective against both left- and right-handed batters.
He possesses two classic weapons against opposite-handed batters, which he is more likely to employ against them: his curveball and change-up.
Opponents hit .118 against the former and .000 against the latter.
So he’s yielding a .279 slugging rate against lefties and a .179 slugging rate against righties.
This ability to own both lefties and righties is crucial against a Dodger lineup that is balanced in its reliance on a mixture of bigger-named left- and right-handed batters.
While the Dodgers do own good career numbers against Musgrove, 34 at-bats is a meaninglessly small data sample.
Plus, they have not faced Musgrove in his clearly new.and improved form.
Form-wise, L.A. does not appear in good shape, relying on later innings to have exceeded three runs one time in its past seven games.
Dustin May
Dodger starter Dustin May resembles Musgrove in that he is producing career-best statistics.
Most notably, he is allowing a career-low 2.93 ERA.
Moreover, his strikeout rate has exploded to 12.91 per nine innings.
Given his improvement, the “under” is 2-1 in his starts so far, with the one “over” coming back in early April when the Dodger lineup was experiencing strong form.
All of May’s pitches are yielding higher whiff percentages.
But his cutter is most responsible for May’s strikeout explosion, improving from a 23 percent whiff rate last year to a 50 percent one this year.
He’s improved the movement of his cutter. This pitch’s velocity — as long as that of his other primary pitches (sinker, curveball, and 4-seam fastball) places it among league leaders.
In addition to producing top-level movement in three of his four pitches, he has adjusted his pitch sequencing in multiple respects.
May will throw more breaking balls when ahead in the count, but still mixes in a 4-seam fastball that helps him remain less predictable.
May vs. Padre Batters
Based on FIP, May’s weakness is against left-handed batters.
I like Musgrove tonight because Padre batters lack the personnel to exploit this weakness.
Their biggest-named batter is a righty, Manny Machado.
Two of their lefties — Eric Hosmer and Trent Grisham — have numbers that appear worrisome.
But those worrisome numbers primarily reflect early-season surges. Both hitters have cooled off considerably since the early season.
Hosmer is experiencing a six-game streak without an extra-base hit while Grisham, in a similar vein, has seen his slugging rate drop 67 points in this series.
Verdict
Both Musgrove and May are reliable “under” pitchers because they have improved significantly this year.
Their positive form will continue, Musgrove’s against a Dodger lineup that is struggling to hit against any starter, May’s against a Padre lineup that lacks in-form lefties.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4 at -125 with Bovada
