Pitching change! See below for rewrite!
Los Padres Look Muy Bien Against los Doyers in Monterrey
San Diego wraps up a three-game „home“ series with the Dodgers in Monterrey, Mexico. The game is at 4 ET and can be viewed on ESPN. The Padres are worth investing in against the overpriced Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
MLB Pick: San Diego
These two teams are playing in Monterrey, Mexico, which is an eight-hour drive from Houston. The altitude here is about 1,000 meters higher than in San Diego, so don’t be shocked if the game total is higher than expected.
You might think me crazy for wanting to invest in the worst team in baseball. But remember that baseball is not like football. In baseball, even the worst team wins dozens of games. What makes the worst team an enticing betting option is that bettors will get it at a huge ‚plus‘ value and can therefore strike a handsome profit by picking the right time to back it. Depending on the odds, bet San Diego on the ML or on the RL (+1 1/2).
Speaking of overpriced, LA starter Rich Hill (1-1, 6.00 ERA) has consistently been fade-worthy. If you have backed him in all three of his starts, then you are down 194 dollars because LA has lost as -170 and -124 chalk with him as the starter. The aging Dodger has been a shell of his former self. He has given up 10 runs in his past two starts despite having the advantage of 6+ days’ rest before his last one, in which case he had been at his best in the brighter stages of his career. Hill now heads into his worst-career month in terms of FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck).
Hill is striking out fewer batters, walking more, and allowing more home runs. Overall, the rate of hard contact which he is allowing is up 19% from his career average. He has two primary pitches, the fastball and the curve. His curve is being slugged at the highest rate which it has experienced since 2013. Consequently, Hill is falling back on his fastball more frequently. When is curve is ineffective, hitters don’t have to worry about it, but can instead sit on his fastball. Batters are achieving a .632 slugging percentage against his fastball, which he is throwing 59% of the time.
The key match-up factor is that Hill is left-handed. San Diego’s OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) is .35 higher against left-handed starters than right-handed starters and .43 higher against southpaws than right-handed pitchers overall. Although one typically doesn’t associate offensive prowess with San Diego, the lineup is primed to do well today. The Padres rank seventh in slugging against the fastball, Hill’s pitch, thrown by southpaws at an average max of 90mph, which is Hill’s average fastball velocity. Look out for Jose Pirela, whose OPS is .762 against lefties.
Eric Lauer (0-1, 10.13 ERA) counters for San Diego. Lauer’s first career start was in the venue which is hardest for starting pitchers, Coors Field, and his ERA reflects it. Monterrey’s altitude is about 3500 feet lower than that of Denver and will suit Lauer more, who looked much better in his second start in San Francisco, yielding a 1.57 FIP. Lauer will not struggle any more than Hill, who is also a fly ball pitcher, in this altitude.
The reason that the Padres’ lineup has an advantage today is because the Dodgers, contrary to the Padres, continue to struggle against left-handed pitchers, which is why Lauer matches up well against them. LA’s OPS is .85 lower against left-handed starters and .57 lower against left-handed pitchers overall.
The Padres’ bullpen offers another advantage with an FIP 1.03 lower than that of the Dodgers and it will secure the upset.
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Los Padres Look Muy Bien Against los Doyers in Monterrey
San Diego wraps up a three-game „home“ series with the Dodgers in Monterrey, Mexico. The game is at 4 ET and can be viewed on ESPN. The Padres are worth investing in against the overpriced Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
MLB Pick: San Diego
These two teams are playing in Monterrey, Mexico, which is an eight-hour drive from Houston. The altitude here is about 1,000 meters higher than in San Diego, so don’t be shocked if the game total is higher than expected.
You might think me crazy for wanting to invest in the worst team in baseball. But remember that baseball is not like football. In baseball, even the worst team wins dozens of games. What makes the worst team an enticing betting option is that bettors will get it at a huge ‚plus‘ value and can therefore strike a handsome profit by picking the right time to back it. Depending on the odds, bet San Diego on the ML or on the RL (+1 1/2).
Speaking of overpriced, LA starter Rich Hill (1-1, 6.00 ERA) has consistently been fade-worthy. If you have backed him in all three of his starts, then you are down 194 dollars because LA has lost as -170 and -124 chalk with him as the starter. The aging Dodger has been a shell of his former self. He has given up 10 runs in his past two starts despite having the advantage of 6+ days’ rest before his last one, in which case he had been at his best in the brighter stages of his career. Hill now heads into his worst-career month in terms of FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck).
Hill is striking out fewer batters, walking more, and allowing more home runs. Overall, the rate of hard contact which he is allowing is up 19% from his career average. He has two primary pitches, the fastball and the curve. His curve is being slugged at the highest rate which it has experienced since 2013. Consequently, Hill is falling back on his fastball more frequently. When is curve is ineffective, hitters don’t have to worry about it, but can instead sit on his fastball. Batters are achieving a .632 slugging percentage against his fastball, which he is throwing 59% of the time.
The key match-up factor is that Hill is left-handed. San Diego’s OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) is .35 higher against left-handed starters than right-handed starters and .43 higher against southpaws than right-handed pitchers overall. Although one typically doesn’t associate offensive prowess with San Diego, the lineup is primed to do well today. The Padres rank seventh in slugging against the fastball, Hill’s pitch, thrown by southpaws at an average max of 90mph, which is Hill’s average fastball velocity. Look out for Jose Pirela, whose OPS is .762 against lefties.
Eric Lauer (0-1, 10.13 ERA) counters for San Diego. Lauer’s first career start was in the venue which is hardest for starting pitchers, Coors Field, and his ERA reflects it. Monterrey’s altitude is about 3500 feet lower than that of Denver and will suit Lauer more, who looked much better in his second start in San Francisco, yielding a 1.57 FIP. Lauer will not struggle any more than Hill, who is also a fly ball pitcher, in this altitude.
The reason that the Padres’ lineup has an advantage today is because the Dodgers, contrary to the Padres, continue to struggle against left-handed pitchers, which is why Lauer matches up well against them. LA’s OPS is .85 lower against left-handed starters and .57 lower against left-handed pitchers overall.
The Padres’ bullpen offers another advantage with an FIP 1.03 lower than that of the Dodgers and it will secure the upset.
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