Bet This MLB Parlay at (+271) on Wednesday
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Wednesday, July 13, 2022 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Who Starts for San Diego?
San Diego starts Joe Musgrove tonight.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, the "under" is 4-1 in Musgrove's starts against division rivals, and the "under" is hitting in 62.5 percent of his road starts.
As measured by a variety of statistics, such as ERA and FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), Musgrove is enjoying the best season of his career.
Interestingly, Musgrove is striking out fewer batters this year than he has in previous years.
Evidently, strikeouts are overrated.
What is crucial for Musgrove's success is his improved ability to induce soft contact.
Musgrove's Stuff
Musgrove is hard to hit because he commands a solid variety of pitches.
He throws four different pitches with between 17 and 27 percent frequency.
Opponents hit .149 against his slider, .236 against his fastball, .134 against his curveball, and .229 against his cutter.
As measured by percentile, he places a superb amount of spin on his fastball and curveball, which makes both pitches hard for batters to track.
With his slider and curveball, he repeatedly toys with the edges of the strike zone, often placing these pitches just outside of the strike zone and inducing batters to chase them.
His cutter benefits from an even distribution of placement along the different parts of the strike zone.
Musgrove vs. Rockie Batters
Musgrove looks particularly reliable tonight because his recent track record against the Rockies is excellent.
Last year, he allowed one earned run in 18.1 innings against Colorado.
This year, he shut them out in six innings.
While these starts took place outside of Coors Field, he has proven in his most recent starts there that he can perform well in this famously hitters-friendly venue.
Who Starts for Colorado?
Colorado starts Chad Kuhl tonight.
Kuhl is a bit odd because he pitches better at home, in high-altitude Denver, then he does away from home.
His excellence at home contributes to the following trend: the "under" is 5-1-1 in his home starts this year.
To be exact, his FIP is 3.67 at home compared to 4.85 on the road.
Kuhl vs. Padre Batters
Kuhl's dominant form in Colorado has victimized every opponent except an Arizona team that, given his pitching arsenal, matches up well against him.
Primarily, Kuhl throws a sinker-slider combo.
These pitches combine for about 75 percent of his arsenal.
Whereas the Diamondbacks rank sixth against these pitches from righties, the Padres rank in the bottom half.
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, July 13, 2022 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Who Starts for Houston?
Houston starts Cristian Javier tonight.
Javier is a strong "under" pitcher this season.
The "under" is hitting in 63.6 percent of his starts overall, in 80 percent of his road starts, and in 71.4 percent of his starts against division rivals.
Great Spot for Javier
Today, Javier looks particularly promising because he is in a great spot.
He has proven to be a strong bounce-back pitcher.
Thus, he is more reliable today because he is coming off a loss.
In all three of his previous starts off losses, he allowed two earned runs or fewer while yielding a sub-three FIP in all three starts.
Javier vs. Angel Batters
Tonight, Javier faces just the opponent that he should want to, in order to turn things around.
In 12.1 innings pitched against the Angels this year -- that is, in one start and two early-season relief appearances, -- he has allowed a combined total of one run.
He yielded a sub-two FIP in all three of those appearances and a sub-one FIP in two of them.
Overall, he has allowed three earned runs in 17.2 innings in these three starts.
Who Starts for the Angels?
L.A. starts the ridiculously consistent Shohei Ohtani tonight.
Ohtani has allowed zero earned runs in each of his last four starts.
His strong numbers this entire season have been well-earned, as he succeeded in Houston and against teams that match up well against him in view of the pitches that he throws.
Best Bet: Parlay Padres/Rockies Under 10.5 at -105 & Astros/Angels Under 7 at -105 at +271 odds with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Wednesday, July 13, 2022 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Who Starts for San Diego?
San Diego starts Joe Musgrove tonight.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, the "under" is 4-1 in Musgrove's starts against division rivals, and the "under" is hitting in 62.5 percent of his road starts.
As measured by a variety of statistics, such as ERA and FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), Musgrove is enjoying the best season of his career.
Interestingly, Musgrove is striking out fewer batters this year than he has in previous years.
Evidently, strikeouts are overrated.
What is crucial for Musgrove's success is his improved ability to induce soft contact.
Musgrove's Stuff
Musgrove is hard to hit because he commands a solid variety of pitches.
He throws four different pitches with between 17 and 27 percent frequency.
Opponents hit .149 against his slider, .236 against his fastball, .134 against his curveball, and .229 against his cutter.
As measured by percentile, he places a superb amount of spin on his fastball and curveball, which makes both pitches hard for batters to track.
With his slider and curveball, he repeatedly toys with the edges of the strike zone, often placing these pitches just outside of the strike zone and inducing batters to chase them.
His cutter benefits from an even distribution of placement along the different parts of the strike zone.
Musgrove vs. Rockie Batters
Musgrove looks particularly reliable tonight because his recent track record against the Rockies is excellent.
Last year, he allowed one earned run in 18.1 innings against Colorado.
This year, he shut them out in six innings.
While these starts took place outside of Coors Field, he has proven in his most recent starts there that he can perform well in this famously hitters-friendly venue.
Who Starts for Colorado?
Colorado starts Chad Kuhl tonight.
Kuhl is a bit odd because he pitches better at home, in high-altitude Denver, then he does away from home.
His excellence at home contributes to the following trend: the "under" is 5-1-1 in his home starts this year.
To be exact, his FIP is 3.67 at home compared to 4.85 on the road.
Kuhl vs. Padre Batters
Kuhl's dominant form in Colorado has victimized every opponent except an Arizona team that, given his pitching arsenal, matches up well against him.
Primarily, Kuhl throws a sinker-slider combo.
These pitches combine for about 75 percent of his arsenal.
Whereas the Diamondbacks rank sixth against these pitches from righties, the Padres rank in the bottom half.
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, July 13, 2022 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Who Starts for Houston?
Houston starts Cristian Javier tonight.
Javier is a strong "under" pitcher this season.
The "under" is hitting in 63.6 percent of his starts overall, in 80 percent of his road starts, and in 71.4 percent of his starts against division rivals.
Great Spot for Javier
Today, Javier looks particularly promising because he is in a great spot.
He has proven to be a strong bounce-back pitcher.
Thus, he is more reliable today because he is coming off a loss.
In all three of his previous starts off losses, he allowed two earned runs or fewer while yielding a sub-three FIP in all three starts.
Javier vs. Angel Batters
Tonight, Javier faces just the opponent that he should want to, in order to turn things around.
In 12.1 innings pitched against the Angels this year -- that is, in one start and two early-season relief appearances, -- he has allowed a combined total of one run.
He yielded a sub-two FIP in all three of those appearances and a sub-one FIP in two of them.
Overall, he has allowed three earned runs in 17.2 innings in these three starts.
Who Starts for the Angels?
L.A. starts the ridiculously consistent Shohei Ohtani tonight.
Ohtani has allowed zero earned runs in each of his last four starts.
His strong numbers this entire season have been well-earned, as he succeeded in Houston and against teams that match up well against him in view of the pitches that he throws.
Best Bet: Parlay Padres/Rockies Under 10.5 at -105 & Astros/Angels Under 7 at -105 at +271 odds with BetOnline
