Let's Spice Up Our Wednesday With A Parlay
San Diego (52-60) at Seattle (47-68)
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Mariners RL (Parlay With Yankees ML)
Seattle's Yusei Kikuchi (4-8, 5.49 ERA) has seen his ERA rise after recently facing multiple lineups that rank in the upper half in runs scored per game. He's done well facing the weaker ones, though, giving up two runs in 6.2 innings against Detroit on July 26 and picking up the win against Baltimore a month prior. San Diego, like Baltimore and Detroit, ranks bottom-10 in runs per game.
In Kikuchi's best games, one thing that he tends to do well is start ahead of the count. Against Detroit, for example, his first-pitch strike percentage was 72, which is important for giving him a statistically better chance to succeed in the at-bat.
He gladly avails himself of a slider and a curveball to complement his first-pitch fastball usage. He throws the former two pitches combined 46 percent of the time against lefties and 41 against righties. His slider has tight movement and lands with 48 percent frequency in the lowest row of the strike zone. His curveball has strong and tricky movement and he places it with unusual balance across different parts of the zone.
San Diego is worth fading tonight because it has lost all six games in the second half of the season that immediately followed a win. Also, it's lost seven games in a row when the opposing starter was left-handed. Against lefties, the Padres are yielding -8.4 units and batting .20 lower than right-handed ones. Expect little from team BA leader Fernando Tatis, who's hitting .227 in his past seven days.
Joey Lucchesi (7-6, 4.23 ERA) hasn't been helping San Diego become more consistent. He's San Diego's last profitable pitcher, yielding -5.6 units, and the Padres have lost the last four games in which he started. Outside of San Diego's pitcher-friendly climate, his ERA is 6.46. The Padres are 3-6 in his road starts, losing 3.6 units.
Lucchesi displays worrisome form, yielding an FIP over 5.00 in four of his last five starts. His main problem has been command. He's allowed at least one homer in four of his last five starts and at least three walks in each of his last three.
His higher walk rate is interesting because he throws first-pitch strikes at a strong rate. Perhaps, with only two primary pitches, he lacks the quality to throw strikes more consistently. Only 38 percent of his pitches land in the strike zone. This fact makes him a good matchup for Seattle, whose lineup has the second-best plate discipline based on low percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone. Watch out for Domingo Santana, who has a double against Lucchesi in two at-bats and slugs .534 against lefties.
New York Yankees (74-39) at Baltimore (38-75)
When: 7:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (Parlay With Mariners RL)
Baltimore's John Means (8-6, 3.12 ERA) may seem attractive given his low ERA. But it masks a 4.46 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding). He's been fortunate in that many of the hits that he's allowing have come without runners in scoring position. He's stranding runners at an unsustainably high rate, 80.1 percent. Means also shows poor form, yielding an FIP over 6.00 in three consecutive outings, and having given up at least one homer in four straight starts.
Means relies heavily on his fastball, throwing it over the half the time. Even though he likes this pitch, opponents hit .272 against it and he lacks alternatives. It possesses below-average velocity. He places added spin on it and likes to elevate it to try and get batters to swing underneath it, which would result in a fly ball. In general, he's very much a fly ball pitcher as he induces grounders only 34.9 percent of the time. This characteristic tendency makes him a tasty matchup for a Yankees lineup that slugs .494 against fly ball pitchers.
No matter who it faces, New York is hitting the ball extremely well. The Yanks have scored at least six runs in six of their last seven games and they won all seven by multiple runs. They take care of business against bad teams like Baltimore, which they've beaten 11 times in a row, 10 of which came by multiple runs. Watch out for DJ LeMahieu, who's hitting .350 with a double and two homers in his last seven days and slugs .638 against lefties.
James Paxton (6-6, 4.31 ERA) may show a worryingly high ERA. However, his ERA does not accurately reflect his game-by-game quality, but the fact that he's had a few catastrophic performances. All of his catastrophes came against lineups that rank in the upper half in home runs per game and that took Paxton deep multiple times. Baltimore, though, ranks bottom-10 in the category.
Like Means, Paxton relies heavily on his fastball. Unlike Means, his fastball is solid. It averages 95.74 mph, boasts strong movement, and he elevates it consistently. For these reasons, it's a strong whiff pitch, for which it ranks in the 84th percentile, and opponents rarely make hard contact against it.
Paxton is undefeated in three career starts at Camden Yards. Current Baltimore batters have faced him only 35 times, but hit .229. Trey Mancini, for example, is 1-for-8 (.125) with three strikeouts.
Given the above reasons, taking New York on the run-line would be completely reasonable if you want to enhance the profitability of your parlay.
San Diego (52-60) at Seattle (47-68)
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Mariners RL (Parlay With Yankees ML)
Seattle's Yusei Kikuchi (4-8, 5.49 ERA) has seen his ERA rise after recently facing multiple lineups that rank in the upper half in runs scored per game. He's done well facing the weaker ones, though, giving up two runs in 6.2 innings against Detroit on July 26 and picking up the win against Baltimore a month prior. San Diego, like Baltimore and Detroit, ranks bottom-10 in runs per game.
In Kikuchi's best games, one thing that he tends to do well is start ahead of the count. Against Detroit, for example, his first-pitch strike percentage was 72, which is important for giving him a statistically better chance to succeed in the at-bat.
He gladly avails himself of a slider and a curveball to complement his first-pitch fastball usage. He throws the former two pitches combined 46 percent of the time against lefties and 41 against righties. His slider has tight movement and lands with 48 percent frequency in the lowest row of the strike zone. His curveball has strong and tricky movement and he places it with unusual balance across different parts of the zone.
San Diego is worth fading tonight because it has lost all six games in the second half of the season that immediately followed a win. Also, it's lost seven games in a row when the opposing starter was left-handed. Against lefties, the Padres are yielding -8.4 units and batting .20 lower than right-handed ones. Expect little from team BA leader Fernando Tatis, who's hitting .227 in his past seven days.
Joey Lucchesi (7-6, 4.23 ERA) hasn't been helping San Diego become more consistent. He's San Diego's last profitable pitcher, yielding -5.6 units, and the Padres have lost the last four games in which he started. Outside of San Diego's pitcher-friendly climate, his ERA is 6.46. The Padres are 3-6 in his road starts, losing 3.6 units.
Lucchesi displays worrisome form, yielding an FIP over 5.00 in four of his last five starts. His main problem has been command. He's allowed at least one homer in four of his last five starts and at least three walks in each of his last three.
His higher walk rate is interesting because he throws first-pitch strikes at a strong rate. Perhaps, with only two primary pitches, he lacks the quality to throw strikes more consistently. Only 38 percent of his pitches land in the strike zone. This fact makes him a good matchup for Seattle, whose lineup has the second-best plate discipline based on low percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone. Watch out for Domingo Santana, who has a double against Lucchesi in two at-bats and slugs .534 against lefties.
New York Yankees (74-39) at Baltimore (38-75)
When: 7:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (Parlay With Mariners RL)
Baltimore's John Means (8-6, 3.12 ERA) may seem attractive given his low ERA. But it masks a 4.46 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding). He's been fortunate in that many of the hits that he's allowing have come without runners in scoring position. He's stranding runners at an unsustainably high rate, 80.1 percent. Means also shows poor form, yielding an FIP over 6.00 in three consecutive outings, and having given up at least one homer in four straight starts.
Means relies heavily on his fastball, throwing it over the half the time. Even though he likes this pitch, opponents hit .272 against it and he lacks alternatives. It possesses below-average velocity. He places added spin on it and likes to elevate it to try and get batters to swing underneath it, which would result in a fly ball. In general, he's very much a fly ball pitcher as he induces grounders only 34.9 percent of the time. This characteristic tendency makes him a tasty matchup for a Yankees lineup that slugs .494 against fly ball pitchers.
No matter who it faces, New York is hitting the ball extremely well. The Yanks have scored at least six runs in six of their last seven games and they won all seven by multiple runs. They take care of business against bad teams like Baltimore, which they've beaten 11 times in a row, 10 of which came by multiple runs. Watch out for DJ LeMahieu, who's hitting .350 with a double and two homers in his last seven days and slugs .638 against lefties.
James Paxton (6-6, 4.31 ERA) may show a worryingly high ERA. However, his ERA does not accurately reflect his game-by-game quality, but the fact that he's had a few catastrophic performances. All of his catastrophes came against lineups that rank in the upper half in home runs per game and that took Paxton deep multiple times. Baltimore, though, ranks bottom-10 in the category.
Like Means, Paxton relies heavily on his fastball. Unlike Means, his fastball is solid. It averages 95.74 mph, boasts strong movement, and he elevates it consistently. For these reasons, it's a strong whiff pitch, for which it ranks in the 84th percentile, and opponents rarely make hard contact against it.
Paxton is undefeated in three career starts at Camden Yards. Current Baltimore batters have faced him only 35 times, but hit .229. Trey Mancini, for example, is 1-for-8 (.125) with three strikeouts.
Given the above reasons, taking New York on the run-line would be completely reasonable if you want to enhance the profitability of your parlay.
