Packers vs. Cowboys Wild Card Game Odds & Picks: Stop Doubting Green Bay
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 4:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
The Myth of Dallas at Home
Bettors seem blindly inclined to bet on the Cowboys because they are playing at home.
But the Cowboys have cooled off since their dominating win in Week 14 over rival Philadelphia.
They lost by 21 in Buffalo, by two in Miami against a Dolphins team that struggles against playoff teams, and they won by one at home against Detroit.
In those games, they scored ten against Buffalo, 20 against Miami, and 20 at home against Detroit.
While they did demolish Washington in Week 18, their success against a losing team that clearly mailed it in playing for a head coach who its players knew was going to be fired doesn't change this downward trend.
Besides, Dallas' great success at home this season has been inflated by its performances against bad defenses like Washington's, and against teams like the Jets who lack the capability on offense to sustain drives and keep their defense off the field.
So, while they beat up the Jets and Giants at home, they only beat almost-playoff team Seattle at home by six and the Lions at home by one.
Staying within a score is something that Green Bay is more than capable of doing.
While the Packers might not seem like much of a playoff team since they are only 9-8, keep in mind that this is a different team than it was earlier in the season.
Green Bay was 3-6. The Packers have, since then, won six of their last eight games.
They've also won their last three games.
Aaron Jones
Whereas Dallas relies heavily on a single player, its star wide receiver, Green Bay's offense is impressively well-rounded.
Crucially, Packers running back Aaron Jones is healthy and hitting his stride (no pun intended) at just the right time.
He enters Sunday's game having run for over 110 yards in each of his last three games.
What is impressive about this trend is the quality of competition he's faced.
Jones ran for 120 yards on 20 carries against a Vikings team that ranks eighth against the run – Dallas ranks 16th by comparison.
Most recently, Jones ran for 111 yards on five YPC against a Chicago team that ranks number one against the run.
His success against the best run defense justifies continued confidence in him.
Earlier in the season, he along with his offensive line had struggled with injury-related issues, but they have clearly overcome these issues.
Jordan Love
Green Bay's Jordan Love is arguably the hottest quarterback in the NFL.
He enters Saturday's game having achieved a passer rating of over 109 in each of his last four games.
Love has sustained his success against a vastly improved Chicago defense and against a Carolina defense that ranks third against the pass – Dallas ranks fifth by comparison.
Green Bay's pass attack would get a boost if speedy deep threat Christian Watson finally returned, but the ascent of versatile Jayden Reed and the depth of Green Bay's pass-catching talent compensates for Watson's absence – the Packers clearly don't need him.
All the more so since they match up well against a Dallas defense that has often struggled against motion and play-action, which are two prominent features of Green Bay's pass attack.
The fact that their pass attack, like their rush attack, thrives against even top-caliber defensive competition emphasizes the extent to which oddsmakers are underrating Green Bay.
Green Bay's Improved Defense
Regardless of the extent to which Dallas has cooled off on offense, Green Bay's defense is greatly improved.
The Packers did suffer a funk, but they've clearly overcome it, having held Minnesota to ten points and a Chicago team to nine points that, for comparison's sake, has scored nearly twice as many points in Cleveland where the NFL's top defense plays.
Green Bay boasts a high-quality cornerback in Jaire Alexander who has earned All-Pro honors multiple times and who can help limit CeeDee Lamb, Dallas' most prominent offensive weapon.
The Packers are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards over the last three weeks, making them a great candidate to keep Dallas' offense one-dimensional, especially since running back Tony Pollard hasn't posed a meaningful threat.
Dallas' offense will suffer for lacking the well-rounded quality of Green Bay's offense.
Best Bet: Packers +7.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 4:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
The Myth of Dallas at Home
Bettors seem blindly inclined to bet on the Cowboys because they are playing at home.
But the Cowboys have cooled off since their dominating win in Week 14 over rival Philadelphia.
They lost by 21 in Buffalo, by two in Miami against a Dolphins team that struggles against playoff teams, and they won by one at home against Detroit.
In those games, they scored ten against Buffalo, 20 against Miami, and 20 at home against Detroit.
While they did demolish Washington in Week 18, their success against a losing team that clearly mailed it in playing for a head coach who its players knew was going to be fired doesn't change this downward trend.
Besides, Dallas' great success at home this season has been inflated by its performances against bad defenses like Washington's, and against teams like the Jets who lack the capability on offense to sustain drives and keep their defense off the field.
So, while they beat up the Jets and Giants at home, they only beat almost-playoff team Seattle at home by six and the Lions at home by one.
Staying within a score is something that Green Bay is more than capable of doing.
While the Packers might not seem like much of a playoff team since they are only 9-8, keep in mind that this is a different team than it was earlier in the season.
Green Bay was 3-6. The Packers have, since then, won six of their last eight games.
They've also won their last three games.
Aaron Jones
Whereas Dallas relies heavily on a single player, its star wide receiver, Green Bay's offense is impressively well-rounded.
Crucially, Packers running back Aaron Jones is healthy and hitting his stride (no pun intended) at just the right time.
He enters Sunday's game having run for over 110 yards in each of his last three games.
What is impressive about this trend is the quality of competition he's faced.
Jones ran for 120 yards on 20 carries against a Vikings team that ranks eighth against the run – Dallas ranks 16th by comparison.
Most recently, Jones ran for 111 yards on five YPC against a Chicago team that ranks number one against the run.
His success against the best run defense justifies continued confidence in him.
Earlier in the season, he along with his offensive line had struggled with injury-related issues, but they have clearly overcome these issues.
Jordan Love
Green Bay's Jordan Love is arguably the hottest quarterback in the NFL.
He enters Saturday's game having achieved a passer rating of over 109 in each of his last four games.
Love has sustained his success against a vastly improved Chicago defense and against a Carolina defense that ranks third against the pass – Dallas ranks fifth by comparison.
Green Bay's pass attack would get a boost if speedy deep threat Christian Watson finally returned, but the ascent of versatile Jayden Reed and the depth of Green Bay's pass-catching talent compensates for Watson's absence – the Packers clearly don't need him.
All the more so since they match up well against a Dallas defense that has often struggled against motion and play-action, which are two prominent features of Green Bay's pass attack.
The fact that their pass attack, like their rush attack, thrives against even top-caliber defensive competition emphasizes the extent to which oddsmakers are underrating Green Bay.
Green Bay's Improved Defense
Regardless of the extent to which Dallas has cooled off on offense, Green Bay's defense is greatly improved.
The Packers did suffer a funk, but they've clearly overcome it, having held Minnesota to ten points and a Chicago team to nine points that, for comparison's sake, has scored nearly twice as many points in Cleveland where the NFL's top defense plays.
Green Bay boasts a high-quality cornerback in Jaire Alexander who has earned All-Pro honors multiple times and who can help limit CeeDee Lamb, Dallas' most prominent offensive weapon.
The Packers are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards over the last three weeks, making them a great candidate to keep Dallas' offense one-dimensional, especially since running back Tony Pollard hasn't posed a meaningful threat.
Dallas' offense will suffer for lacking the well-rounded quality of Green Bay's offense.
Best Bet: Packers +7.5 at -110 with BetOnline
