Packers vs Broncos Week 3 NFL Odds & Predictions
Denver Broncos (0-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1)
When/Where: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field
Odds: Packers -7.5, O/U 44
TV: FOX
Under its new head coach Vic Fangio, Denver’s defense isn't what it used to be. The Broncos rank last in adjusted sack rate. Bradley Chubb and Von Miller have been disturbingly quiet with neither one posting a sack so far.
One reason for Denver’s lack of pass rush is its lack of quality in the defensive interior where, in Fangio’s world, quality push is supposed to free up the edge rushers. Another reason is that Von Miller and Chubb aren’t being moved along the defense to keep opposing blockers guessing as to who they’re going to block.
Denver’s pass rush is a major reason why last year’s Broncos ranked fourth in pass defense by DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). This year, they rank 26th in the category as opposing quarterbacks are more comfortable.
Pessimism seems justified as the Bronco pass defense has enjoyed inordinate opportunity to post stronger numbers. In its season opener, Denver fell behind by multiple scores when Oakland coach Jon Gruden’s offense grew vanilla. Denver then benefited from facing a Chicago offense led by an inept Mitchell Trubisky whose inaccuracy, timing-related issues, and poor decision-making won’t keep him in the NFL for long.
Now Denver faces arguably the most talented quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. While Green Bay’s offense is slowly developing under a new head coach and new offensive coordinator, it hasn’t faced the easiest opening pair of opponents in Chicago and Minnesota. The Packers showed promise in Week 2, opening with 21 straight points against the Vikings from scripted plays.
The Packers are facing a vulnerable defense. After Chris Harris, Denver is weak in the secondary. Even Harris can’t promise much against one of the league’s best receivers in Davante Adams, who has scored a touchdown or eclipsed 100 receiving yards in 74 percent of his games with Aaron Rodgers and regularly owns the league’s top cornerbacks.
Isaac Yiadom is having to serve as Denver’s number-two cornerback while Bryce Callahan struggles with his injured foot. Yiadom has constantly been a favorite target for opposing quarterbacks.
Even if Callahan were to return, he’s barely practiced. The free agent signing's lack of chemistry with the rest of Denver’s secondary would be conspicuous as Fangio’s hybridized zone-man defense calls for a unique quality of communication between defensive backs.
Tight ends and pass-catching running backs continue to pose a problem for Denver’s pass defense, as they did last year. Expect a nice game from Aaron Jones, who shows crisp route-running ability, above-average ball skills, and the ability to make nice receptions even against tight coverage.
On offense, Denver’s problems are incomparable. The Broncos have essentially only scored when facing soft defenses later in games, which is why they rank last in scoring 1.5 points per first half.
Quarterback Joe Flacco has been a statistically subpar quarterback for several years and he misses much of a go-to receiver in Denver. He promises to do little against a Packer defense that’s playing superbly as a unit. ranking 10th in sack percentage and second in opposing passer rating
Key offseason additions that are panning out include Za’Darius Smith, whom PFF rated as the 19th-best edge rusher last year. At cornerback, Jaire Alexander made the NFL’s all-rookie team last year. Currently, he ranks top-six in opposing yards per target, pass breakups, and coverage rating.
Green Bay’s run defense also is better than advertised as it dealt with Dalvin Cook last week, nearly half of whose yards came on a single broken play.
While Denver’s offense struggles to do anything, Green Bay’s isn’t sufficiently in-tune to endanger the „over.“ Still, its offense boasts difference-makers in Rodgers and Adams plus the match-up friendly Aaron Jones. Green Bay's defense will also give the offense more opportunities by making big plays. Currently, it ranks fourth in takeaways per game.
Picks: Packers -7.5 & Under 44
Denver Broncos (0-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1)
When/Where: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field
Odds: Packers -7.5, O/U 44
TV: FOX
Under its new head coach Vic Fangio, Denver’s defense isn't what it used to be. The Broncos rank last in adjusted sack rate. Bradley Chubb and Von Miller have been disturbingly quiet with neither one posting a sack so far.
One reason for Denver’s lack of pass rush is its lack of quality in the defensive interior where, in Fangio’s world, quality push is supposed to free up the edge rushers. Another reason is that Von Miller and Chubb aren’t being moved along the defense to keep opposing blockers guessing as to who they’re going to block.
Denver’s pass rush is a major reason why last year’s Broncos ranked fourth in pass defense by DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). This year, they rank 26th in the category as opposing quarterbacks are more comfortable.
Pessimism seems justified as the Bronco pass defense has enjoyed inordinate opportunity to post stronger numbers. In its season opener, Denver fell behind by multiple scores when Oakland coach Jon Gruden’s offense grew vanilla. Denver then benefited from facing a Chicago offense led by an inept Mitchell Trubisky whose inaccuracy, timing-related issues, and poor decision-making won’t keep him in the NFL for long.
Now Denver faces arguably the most talented quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. While Green Bay’s offense is slowly developing under a new head coach and new offensive coordinator, it hasn’t faced the easiest opening pair of opponents in Chicago and Minnesota. The Packers showed promise in Week 2, opening with 21 straight points against the Vikings from scripted plays.
The Packers are facing a vulnerable defense. After Chris Harris, Denver is weak in the secondary. Even Harris can’t promise much against one of the league’s best receivers in Davante Adams, who has scored a touchdown or eclipsed 100 receiving yards in 74 percent of his games with Aaron Rodgers and regularly owns the league’s top cornerbacks.
Isaac Yiadom is having to serve as Denver’s number-two cornerback while Bryce Callahan struggles with his injured foot. Yiadom has constantly been a favorite target for opposing quarterbacks.
Even if Callahan were to return, he’s barely practiced. The free agent signing's lack of chemistry with the rest of Denver’s secondary would be conspicuous as Fangio’s hybridized zone-man defense calls for a unique quality of communication between defensive backs.
Tight ends and pass-catching running backs continue to pose a problem for Denver’s pass defense, as they did last year. Expect a nice game from Aaron Jones, who shows crisp route-running ability, above-average ball skills, and the ability to make nice receptions even against tight coverage.
On offense, Denver’s problems are incomparable. The Broncos have essentially only scored when facing soft defenses later in games, which is why they rank last in scoring 1.5 points per first half.
Quarterback Joe Flacco has been a statistically subpar quarterback for several years and he misses much of a go-to receiver in Denver. He promises to do little against a Packer defense that’s playing superbly as a unit. ranking 10th in sack percentage and second in opposing passer rating
Key offseason additions that are panning out include Za’Darius Smith, whom PFF rated as the 19th-best edge rusher last year. At cornerback, Jaire Alexander made the NFL’s all-rookie team last year. Currently, he ranks top-six in opposing yards per target, pass breakups, and coverage rating.
Green Bay’s run defense also is better than advertised as it dealt with Dalvin Cook last week, nearly half of whose yards came on a single broken play.
While Denver’s offense struggles to do anything, Green Bay’s isn’t sufficiently in-tune to endanger the „over.“ Still, its offense boasts difference-makers in Rodgers and Adams plus the match-up friendly Aaron Jones. Green Bay's defense will also give the offense more opportunities by making big plays. Currently, it ranks fourth in takeaways per game.
Picks: Packers -7.5 & Under 44
