Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 20
Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards
Thursday, May 20, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET (TNT) at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
Washington’s Defensive Style
On defense, Washington wants to encourage the opposing offense to attempt mid-range shots because, according to analytics experts, mid-range shooting provides the worst risk-reward ratio for an offense.
The Wizards do this — encourage opposing mid-range shot attempts — partly by trying to prevent the opponent from attempting shots at the basket.
In this respect, the Wizards have been more successful than any other team. They allow the fewest field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Positioning is important: in establishing ideal positioning, Wizard defenders hope to make shot attempts near the basket look less attractive to an opposing offense.
When their defense gets set, they like to pack the paint, having defenders sag off of opposing potential three-point shooters and keeping defenders in or near the paint.
You can see the entire game between the Wizards and Lakers:
Notice in the beginning how the Lakers attempt one three-pointer after another despite not being a team that wants to attempt a lot of threes.
Besides packing the paint, the Wizards like to do a lot of switching.
Look at 5:04 in the above video as the Lakers are about to execute a ball-screen.
Washington switches, so that it can position a defender in front of the basket before the Laker ball-handler is able to reach the basket.
In beating his opponent to his desired spot, the Wizard defender is able to draw a charge, thus preventing the opposing team from attempting a shot within five feet of the basket.
Series History & Pacer Offense
Indiana and Washington faced each other three times this season.
While the Wizards went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, their defense does not explain why they won the regular season battle.
One could easily think that Washington’s defense should provide some explanation for the team’s regular season success against Indiana because the Pacers attempt more field goals within five feet of the basket than every team besides one.
Surely, if the Pacers are not comfortable scoring in the way that they prefer doing, then they will struggle.
But in three games against Washington, the Pacers scored 124 points, 141 points, and 132 points (including overtime), respectively.
The 132-point effort was in the most recent game between these teams, a one-point nail-biter on May 8 in which the Wizards won by a point and failed to cover the spread.
Pacer Offense vs. Wizard Defense
Indiana knows how to score as it wants to against the Wizard defense.
In the second-to-last game between both teams, on May 3, Indiana attempted 36 field goals within five feet of the basket and converted 63.9 percent of them. In both respects, field goal attempts and efficiency, the Pacers exceeded their regular season averages within five feet of the basket.
In the last meeting between these teams, the Pacers managed to attempt 44 field goals within five feet of the basket and converted 68.2 percent of them.
Video footage reveals how the Pacers like to keep the Wizard defense spread out in order to prevent the Wizards from packing the paint.
One way in which Indiana will accomplish this is by positioning players on the corners in order to pin down opposing defenders near the perimeter.
Indiana will also score early in the shot clock in order to prevent defenders from converging inside.
Generally, Indiana is a fast-paced team. The Pacers rank fourth in pace.
Their fast pace allows them to attack a defense before it can set itself.
On defense, Pacer defenders create a lot of havoc. They force turnovers, deflect passes, and block shots in order to run the floor and generate instant offense.
They attempt the third-most field goals in transition.
In the half-court, the Pacers create intense and fast-moving player and ball movement, helping them be the fastest offense in terms of miles per hour.
So also because of their half-court offense, the Pacers rank top-five in rate of shots attempted within the first six seconds of the shot clock.
They will pass to a cutter, drive, pull opposing centers away from the basket in order to have bigger scorers post up on smaller defenders, or find other ways to quickly attack a spread-out defense.
Injury Impact
It is true that Indiana will miss more players, including Caris LeVert, TJ Warren, and Myles Turner.
But Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are vastly more important to the Wizard offense.
In the 133-132 overtime triumph, for example, the duo compared for 83 points, not counting their assists.
Both players will play tonight, but neither one is healthy.
Beal admitted that he is less than 100%. Westbrook, whose field goal percentage was even lower than Beal’s on Tuesday, was also evidently ailing against Boston.
Washington only scored 100 points and both players combined for a +/- rating of -39 because of their injuries.
Indiana’s key players, though, are healthier and were able to rest more in Tuesday’s blowout win over Charlotte.
Malcolm Brogdon was 6-of-10 on the floor and produced eight assists.
The Pacer offense gladly ran through Nikola Jok…err…I mean Domantas Sabonis.
Sabonis can bully smaller defenders inside. When defended by guys who won’t let him bully them, he can run the offense with positive court vision and crisp passes. He nearly accomplished a triple-double on Tuesday.
So while Washington may be the healthier team in some senses of the word, injuries will hurt them in more meaningful ways.
The Verdict
With early offense actions and transition offense, the Pacers will continue to light up the Wizard defense.
Spearheaded by ailing Russ and Beal, the Wizard offense won’t keep pace.
Indiana enters tonight with five-game ATS winning streaks both overall and as an underdog.
For the above reasons, expect them to have Washington on upset alert tonight.
Best Bet: Pacers +3 at -108 with Heritage
Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards
Thursday, May 20, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET (TNT) at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
Washington’s Defensive Style
On defense, Washington wants to encourage the opposing offense to attempt mid-range shots because, according to analytics experts, mid-range shooting provides the worst risk-reward ratio for an offense.
The Wizards do this — encourage opposing mid-range shot attempts — partly by trying to prevent the opponent from attempting shots at the basket.
In this respect, the Wizards have been more successful than any other team. They allow the fewest field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Positioning is important: in establishing ideal positioning, Wizard defenders hope to make shot attempts near the basket look less attractive to an opposing offense.
When their defense gets set, they like to pack the paint, having defenders sag off of opposing potential three-point shooters and keeping defenders in or near the paint.
You can see the entire game between the Wizards and Lakers:
Notice in the beginning how the Lakers attempt one three-pointer after another despite not being a team that wants to attempt a lot of threes.
Besides packing the paint, the Wizards like to do a lot of switching.
Look at 5:04 in the above video as the Lakers are about to execute a ball-screen.
Washington switches, so that it can position a defender in front of the basket before the Laker ball-handler is able to reach the basket.
In beating his opponent to his desired spot, the Wizard defender is able to draw a charge, thus preventing the opposing team from attempting a shot within five feet of the basket.
Series History & Pacer Offense
Indiana and Washington faced each other three times this season.
While the Wizards went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, their defense does not explain why they won the regular season battle.
One could easily think that Washington’s defense should provide some explanation for the team’s regular season success against Indiana because the Pacers attempt more field goals within five feet of the basket than every team besides one.
Surely, if the Pacers are not comfortable scoring in the way that they prefer doing, then they will struggle.
But in three games against Washington, the Pacers scored 124 points, 141 points, and 132 points (including overtime), respectively.
The 132-point effort was in the most recent game between these teams, a one-point nail-biter on May 8 in which the Wizards won by a point and failed to cover the spread.
Pacer Offense vs. Wizard Defense
Indiana knows how to score as it wants to against the Wizard defense.
In the second-to-last game between both teams, on May 3, Indiana attempted 36 field goals within five feet of the basket and converted 63.9 percent of them. In both respects, field goal attempts and efficiency, the Pacers exceeded their regular season averages within five feet of the basket.
In the last meeting between these teams, the Pacers managed to attempt 44 field goals within five feet of the basket and converted 68.2 percent of them.
Video footage reveals how the Pacers like to keep the Wizard defense spread out in order to prevent the Wizards from packing the paint.
One way in which Indiana will accomplish this is by positioning players on the corners in order to pin down opposing defenders near the perimeter.
Indiana will also score early in the shot clock in order to prevent defenders from converging inside.
Generally, Indiana is a fast-paced team. The Pacers rank fourth in pace.
Their fast pace allows them to attack a defense before it can set itself.
On defense, Pacer defenders create a lot of havoc. They force turnovers, deflect passes, and block shots in order to run the floor and generate instant offense.
They attempt the third-most field goals in transition.
In the half-court, the Pacers create intense and fast-moving player and ball movement, helping them be the fastest offense in terms of miles per hour.
So also because of their half-court offense, the Pacers rank top-five in rate of shots attempted within the first six seconds of the shot clock.
They will pass to a cutter, drive, pull opposing centers away from the basket in order to have bigger scorers post up on smaller defenders, or find other ways to quickly attack a spread-out defense.
Injury Impact
It is true that Indiana will miss more players, including Caris LeVert, TJ Warren, and Myles Turner.
But Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are vastly more important to the Wizard offense.
In the 133-132 overtime triumph, for example, the duo compared for 83 points, not counting their assists.
Both players will play tonight, but neither one is healthy.
Beal admitted that he is less than 100%. Westbrook, whose field goal percentage was even lower than Beal’s on Tuesday, was also evidently ailing against Boston.
Washington only scored 100 points and both players combined for a +/- rating of -39 because of their injuries.
Indiana’s key players, though, are healthier and were able to rest more in Tuesday’s blowout win over Charlotte.
Malcolm Brogdon was 6-of-10 on the floor and produced eight assists.
The Pacer offense gladly ran through Nikola Jok…err…I mean Domantas Sabonis.
Sabonis can bully smaller defenders inside. When defended by guys who won’t let him bully them, he can run the offense with positive court vision and crisp passes. He nearly accomplished a triple-double on Tuesday.
So while Washington may be the healthier team in some senses of the word, injuries will hurt them in more meaningful ways.
The Verdict
With early offense actions and transition offense, the Pacers will continue to light up the Wizard defense.
Spearheaded by ailing Russ and Beal, the Wizard offense won’t keep pace.
Indiana enters tonight with five-game ATS winning streaks both overall and as an underdog.
For the above reasons, expect them to have Washington on upset alert tonight.
Best Bet: Pacers +3 at -108 with Heritage
