NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz
Friday, April 18, 2021 at 3 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah
Indiana’s Perimeter Defense: Statistics
A wide range of statistics shows the devotion of Indiana’s defense to locking down the perimeter.
The Pacers are the best at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Moreover, they allow the second-lowest rate of open three-point attempts and the third-lowest rate of wide open three-point attempts.
These last two statistics mean that Pacer defenders rarely allow opposing players four or more feet of space when attempting a shot behind the arc.
A lot of people want to credit center Myles Turner for the tightness of Indiana’s perimeter defense.
I don’t want to downplay Turner’s significance. He can be helpful switching onto an opponent behind the arc and he wants his teammates to guard the perimeter aggressively because he’ll use his shot-blocking prowess to clean up any messes at the rim.
So while it would be nice if Turner plays today — he’s still listed as ‘questionable’ with a left ankle sprain — it’s important to note that the significance of his absence is overstated when it comes to the Pacer perimeter defense.
Without him, statistically speaking, the Pacers are still doing the same high-level job of limiting open three-point shots and of running opposing shooters off the three-point line.
Indiana’s Perimeter Defense: Breakdown
Throughout the season, Indiana’s defense has been known for its schematic variety and creativity.
The Pacers will give opposing offenses a variety of looks, sometimes employing a 2-3 zone, for example.
With Caris LeVert back in the lineup, the Pacers are able to do more switching.
In some games, like a 109-94 win over Dallas a few weeks ago, Indiana stuck to switching and switched one-through-five, meaning that everybody in the lineup switched.
The Pacers have the personnel to switch with bigs like Domantas Sabonis.
Since the beginning of the season, power forward Sabonis has ranked among league leaders in defensive player movement.
He is willing to be switched onto opposing guards out on the perimeter where he’ll stay in front of his man, prevent an open look, and help run him off the three-point line.
Pacer Perimeter Defense vs. Jazz Offense
Perimeter defense is especially important against a Utah offense that is more reliant on any other team on creating and converting three-point opportunities.
The Jazz lead the league both in three-pointers made per game and in three-pointers attempted per game.
But one thing that Utah has struggled with offensively is switch-heavy schemes from the opposing defense.
Switching is a great tactic to employ against teams that rely heavily on ball-screens.
Utah does rely heavily on ball-screens. It employs the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler with the NBA’s highest frequency.
Its spot-up shooters also like to come off of screens in order to attempt a three-point shot.
Switching is a conceptually simple defensive counter.
Some teams don’t like to switch a lot because of the unfavorable match-ups that develop inside.
If a power forward like Sabonis is switched onto a guard, it means that a Pacer guard is having to try to guard an opposing big man inside.
In that win against Dallas, Indiana was able to concede the post. Kristaps Porzingis, for Dallas, accrued 31 points as he took advantage of more favorable match-ups created by Pacer switching.
But he couldn’t keep his team in the game by himself.
Since Utah is so reliant on shooting threes and since Utah lacks a meaningful post-up threat — its starting center, Rudy Gobert, only ranks fifth on the team in points per game — the Pacers can follow the same strategy.
Conceding the post would create minimal danger to the Pacer offense given Utah’s personnel.
Indiana Offense vs. Utah Defense
Offensively, Indiana wants to attack the basket. The Pacers attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
This preference makes the Pacer offense match up poorly against a Utah defense that ranks sixth-best in limiting field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Utah could not have stronger rim-protecting personnel. Gobert has won Defensive Player of the Year twice because of his ability to block and deter shot attempts at the rim.
His presence will help secure a low-scoring game tonight by helping to limit what the Pacer offense wants to do, just like Indiana’s defense is extra well-equipped to handle Utah’s offense.
Side Verdict
Since LeVert’s insertion into Indiana's starting lineup, the Pacers have been strong road underdogs, going 5-2 ATS in road games in which they are the underdog.
While Utah was a cover machine, oddsmakers have adjusted. And the Jazz have now failed to cover their last two home games.
Note that the Jazz find themselves in a particularly tough situation.
In the first leg of a back-to-back — Utah will play the Lakers tomorrow — the Jazz are suffering an 0-6 ATS run.
Best Bet: Parlay Pacers +9.5 at -108 & Under 235 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz
Friday, April 18, 2021 at 3 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah
Indiana’s Perimeter Defense: Statistics
A wide range of statistics shows the devotion of Indiana’s defense to locking down the perimeter.
The Pacers are the best at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Moreover, they allow the second-lowest rate of open three-point attempts and the third-lowest rate of wide open three-point attempts.
These last two statistics mean that Pacer defenders rarely allow opposing players four or more feet of space when attempting a shot behind the arc.
A lot of people want to credit center Myles Turner for the tightness of Indiana’s perimeter defense.
I don’t want to downplay Turner’s significance. He can be helpful switching onto an opponent behind the arc and he wants his teammates to guard the perimeter aggressively because he’ll use his shot-blocking prowess to clean up any messes at the rim.
So while it would be nice if Turner plays today — he’s still listed as ‘questionable’ with a left ankle sprain — it’s important to note that the significance of his absence is overstated when it comes to the Pacer perimeter defense.
Without him, statistically speaking, the Pacers are still doing the same high-level job of limiting open three-point shots and of running opposing shooters off the three-point line.
Indiana’s Perimeter Defense: Breakdown
Throughout the season, Indiana’s defense has been known for its schematic variety and creativity.
The Pacers will give opposing offenses a variety of looks, sometimes employing a 2-3 zone, for example.
With Caris LeVert back in the lineup, the Pacers are able to do more switching.
In some games, like a 109-94 win over Dallas a few weeks ago, Indiana stuck to switching and switched one-through-five, meaning that everybody in the lineup switched.
The Pacers have the personnel to switch with bigs like Domantas Sabonis.
Since the beginning of the season, power forward Sabonis has ranked among league leaders in defensive player movement.
He is willing to be switched onto opposing guards out on the perimeter where he’ll stay in front of his man, prevent an open look, and help run him off the three-point line.
Pacer Perimeter Defense vs. Jazz Offense
Perimeter defense is especially important against a Utah offense that is more reliant on any other team on creating and converting three-point opportunities.
The Jazz lead the league both in three-pointers made per game and in three-pointers attempted per game.
But one thing that Utah has struggled with offensively is switch-heavy schemes from the opposing defense.
Switching is a great tactic to employ against teams that rely heavily on ball-screens.
Utah does rely heavily on ball-screens. It employs the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler with the NBA’s highest frequency.
Its spot-up shooters also like to come off of screens in order to attempt a three-point shot.
Switching is a conceptually simple defensive counter.
Some teams don’t like to switch a lot because of the unfavorable match-ups that develop inside.
If a power forward like Sabonis is switched onto a guard, it means that a Pacer guard is having to try to guard an opposing big man inside.
In that win against Dallas, Indiana was able to concede the post. Kristaps Porzingis, for Dallas, accrued 31 points as he took advantage of more favorable match-ups created by Pacer switching.
But he couldn’t keep his team in the game by himself.
Since Utah is so reliant on shooting threes and since Utah lacks a meaningful post-up threat — its starting center, Rudy Gobert, only ranks fifth on the team in points per game — the Pacers can follow the same strategy.
Conceding the post would create minimal danger to the Pacer offense given Utah’s personnel.
Indiana Offense vs. Utah Defense
Offensively, Indiana wants to attack the basket. The Pacers attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
This preference makes the Pacer offense match up poorly against a Utah defense that ranks sixth-best in limiting field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Utah could not have stronger rim-protecting personnel. Gobert has won Defensive Player of the Year twice because of his ability to block and deter shot attempts at the rim.
His presence will help secure a low-scoring game tonight by helping to limit what the Pacer offense wants to do, just like Indiana’s defense is extra well-equipped to handle Utah’s offense.
Side Verdict
Since LeVert’s insertion into Indiana's starting lineup, the Pacers have been strong road underdogs, going 5-2 ATS in road games in which they are the underdog.
While Utah was a cover machine, oddsmakers have adjusted. And the Jazz have now failed to cover their last two home games.
Note that the Jazz find themselves in a particularly tough situation.
In the first leg of a back-to-back — Utah will play the Lakers tomorrow — the Jazz are suffering an 0-6 ATS run.
Best Bet: Parlay Pacers +9.5 at -108 & Under 235 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
