NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Indiana Pacers vs. Houston Rockets
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston
Houston’s Recent Opposing Scoring Averages
In each of their last three games, the Rockets have allowed over 120 points.
But in order to see why Houston’s recent results are the way they are, we need to consider how opponents have been scoring so many of those points.
Phoenix was Houston’s last opponent. The Suns rank in the upper half in three-pointers made per game and converted 25 three-point attempts against the Rockets.
Before Houston was Golden State. The Warriors rank eighth in three-pointers made per game and made 14 in their win over Houston.
Lastly, the Rockets played the Clippers. The Clippers make the fifth-most threes per game and made 19 against Houston.
So three-point shooting has been and is the way to thrive offensively against the Rockets.
Indiana’s Offense vs. Houston’s Defense
The thing about Indiana is that it does not primarily want to shoot threes.
Rather, Indiana wants to attack inside. Since the beginning of the season, the Pacers have ranked among the leading teams in number of field goals attempted per game within five feet of the basket.
In contrast, the Pacers rank in the bottom half in three-pointers made per game.
With their preference not to shoot threes, the Pacers are not built stylistically like the offenses that have thrived against Houston.
So, offensively, the Pacers are not equipped to perform as well tonight.
Indiana’s Defense vs. Houston’s Offense
Indiana has allowed over 120 points in three of its last four games.
The one exception came against a lowly Orlando team that lost even more talent at the trade deadline and is currently averaging 96.7 points per game in its last three games.
Otherwise, the Pacer rim protection has been especially vulnerable. While they remain devoted to guarding the perimeter, they are allowing 68 points in the paint over their last three games.
The key here is Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Turner.
Indiana’s shot-blocking center was ruled out for Tuesday’s game after being unable to practice. He only played 20 minutes against Chicago and then missed his team’s last four games.
Although he is officially listed as ‘questionable’ with a left ankle sprain, I doubt that he will play tonight because he will not have practiced since Indiana is playing in the second leg of a back-to-back.
Even if he does manage to play, it seems extremely unrealistic for somebody who hasn’t even been able to practice to suddenly morph back into a player playing his best basketball.
At 3.5 blocks per game, Turner at his best stabilizes the Pacer interior defense like none of his teammates are able to.
He also allows his teammates to guard the perimeter more closely. They can afford to risk applying stronger on-ball pressure because if they fail to keep the opposing ball-handler in front of them Turner is there to clean up the mess at the rim.
For Houston, one Rocket player who will flourish is John Wall.
Wall loves to drive and attack the basket and can finish efficiently without having to deal with a healthy Turner.
Wall is in a particularly strong spot because he tends to bounce back after a poor scoring effort.
Christian Wood is an athletic and mobile center whose agility as a center makes him perfect for small-ball.
He, too, can succeed inside as Houston’s leading scorer against Indiana’s more vulnerable interior defense.
Side Verdict
Indiana is a terrible team to rely on when it is favored
Currently, the Pacers are on a 1-6 ATS run as the favorite.
They lack the defensive stability especially without a healthy Turner and the offensive crispness or consistency to cover chalk.
Total Verdict
I see Houston as having an advantage over the Pacers scoring-wise with its potential for thriving inside.
Led by Wall and Wood, the Rockets are built to continue Indiana’s streak of allowing over 120 points to offenses that aren’t a complete mess like Orlando’s.
While Indiana isn’t built to do what Houston’s most recent opponents have done to its defense, the Pacers still have a lot of guys who like to attack inside.
Malcolm Brogdon, with his 20 points per game in April, and All-Star Domantas Sabonis can put up plenty of points against Houston’s well-sized but unathletic starting center or its athletic but way undersized small-ball center.
Best Bet: Parlay Rockets +5.5 at -108 & Over 233 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Indiana Pacers vs. Houston Rockets
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston
Houston’s Recent Opposing Scoring Averages
In each of their last three games, the Rockets have allowed over 120 points.
But in order to see why Houston’s recent results are the way they are, we need to consider how opponents have been scoring so many of those points.
Phoenix was Houston’s last opponent. The Suns rank in the upper half in three-pointers made per game and converted 25 three-point attempts against the Rockets.
Before Houston was Golden State. The Warriors rank eighth in three-pointers made per game and made 14 in their win over Houston.
Lastly, the Rockets played the Clippers. The Clippers make the fifth-most threes per game and made 19 against Houston.
So three-point shooting has been and is the way to thrive offensively against the Rockets.
Indiana’s Offense vs. Houston’s Defense
The thing about Indiana is that it does not primarily want to shoot threes.
Rather, Indiana wants to attack inside. Since the beginning of the season, the Pacers have ranked among the leading teams in number of field goals attempted per game within five feet of the basket.
In contrast, the Pacers rank in the bottom half in three-pointers made per game.
With their preference not to shoot threes, the Pacers are not built stylistically like the offenses that have thrived against Houston.
So, offensively, the Pacers are not equipped to perform as well tonight.
Indiana’s Defense vs. Houston’s Offense
Indiana has allowed over 120 points in three of its last four games.
The one exception came against a lowly Orlando team that lost even more talent at the trade deadline and is currently averaging 96.7 points per game in its last three games.
Otherwise, the Pacer rim protection has been especially vulnerable. While they remain devoted to guarding the perimeter, they are allowing 68 points in the paint over their last three games.
The key here is Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Turner.
Indiana’s shot-blocking center was ruled out for Tuesday’s game after being unable to practice. He only played 20 minutes against Chicago and then missed his team’s last four games.
Although he is officially listed as ‘questionable’ with a left ankle sprain, I doubt that he will play tonight because he will not have practiced since Indiana is playing in the second leg of a back-to-back.
Even if he does manage to play, it seems extremely unrealistic for somebody who hasn’t even been able to practice to suddenly morph back into a player playing his best basketball.
At 3.5 blocks per game, Turner at his best stabilizes the Pacer interior defense like none of his teammates are able to.
He also allows his teammates to guard the perimeter more closely. They can afford to risk applying stronger on-ball pressure because if they fail to keep the opposing ball-handler in front of them Turner is there to clean up the mess at the rim.
For Houston, one Rocket player who will flourish is John Wall.
Wall loves to drive and attack the basket and can finish efficiently without having to deal with a healthy Turner.
Wall is in a particularly strong spot because he tends to bounce back after a poor scoring effort.
Christian Wood is an athletic and mobile center whose agility as a center makes him perfect for small-ball.
He, too, can succeed inside as Houston’s leading scorer against Indiana’s more vulnerable interior defense.
Side Verdict
Indiana is a terrible team to rely on when it is favored
Currently, the Pacers are on a 1-6 ATS run as the favorite.
They lack the defensive stability especially without a healthy Turner and the offensive crispness or consistency to cover chalk.
Total Verdict
I see Houston as having an advantage over the Pacers scoring-wise with its potential for thriving inside.
Led by Wall and Wood, the Rockets are built to continue Indiana’s streak of allowing over 120 points to offenses that aren’t a complete mess like Orlando’s.
While Indiana isn’t built to do what Houston’s most recent opponents have done to its defense, the Pacers still have a lot of guys who like to attack inside.
Malcolm Brogdon, with his 20 points per game in April, and All-Star Domantas Sabonis can put up plenty of points against Houston’s well-sized but unathletic starting center or its athletic but way undersized small-ball center.
Best Bet: Parlay Rockets +5.5 at -108 & Over 233 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
