NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Feel free to parlay both of my favorite bets in order to maximize your profit.
Indiana Pacers vs. Orlando Magic
Friday, April 9, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida
The Importance of Injuries
When on Wednesday I successfully picked the Hornets to cover the spread against the Thunder, I had written about injuries.
I wrote that Thunder injuries made them a demonstrably very different kind of team that made it match up poorly with the Hornets.
It’s true that, for today’s game, possibly Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon may both be absent for Indiana.
But fading Indiana as a result of their absence would be unjustifiable for two reasons.
One, NBA oddsmakers will adjust the spread in order to account for their absence.
Two, contrary to what was the case for OKC, their absence does not make Indiana a different kind of time.
Pacer Offense vs. Magic Defense
Even since both Sabonis and Brogdon have been absent — that is, since April 3 — the Pacers are primarily a team that wants to attack the basket.
Since April 3, they rank third in attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
In this span, they’ve also been the ninth-most efficient team within this range of the basket.
If their field goal percentage within five feet of the basket since April 3 were a season-long statistic, the Pacers would rank third in the category.
Whereas Sabonis and Brogdon absorbed a significant ratio of the team’s shot attempts, several other Pacer players are stepping up in their absence.
Doug McDermott is one efficient scorer at the basket who uses his length to finish over his defenders.
Caris LeVert is a solid ball-handler who will back himself up to give himself more room to speed, shift, or steam his way past his on-ball defender.
Guys like McDermott and LeVert will thrive against a Magic defense that all year has been uniquely vulnerable in the interior.
The acquisition of Wendell Carter has not changed this vulnerability in Orlando’s interior defense.
Currently, Orlando ranks second-to-worst in opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Generally speaking, the Magic defense has shown poor form lately, allowing 137 points to Utah, 119 to Denver, and 131 to Washington in its last three games.
This overall defensive vulnerability is something that an Indiana offense that has proven it can score in bunches without Sabonis and Brogdon can take advantage of.
Magic Offense vs. Pacer Defense
It’s really hard to like Orlando if you don’t like its defense to do well.
Offensively, the ceiling for the Magic is very low, especially since the Magic lost former top team scorers Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier.
Overall, the Magic rank second-to-last in points per game.
What Orlando especially likes to do on offense — run ball-screens for the ball-handler — is something that, based on PPP (points per possession), the Magic do very inefficiently.
Orlando’s offense matches up especially poorly against a Pacer defense that allows the sixth-fewest PPP off of the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, April 9, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Scoring Defense
It’s true that, recently, the Hornet defense has been allowing fewer points per game.
But let’s examine its recent opponents in order to answer an important question: has the Hornet defense improved or is it facing favorable opponents?
Since March 22, two of the nine opponents that Charlotte has faced rank top-10 in three-pointers made per game.
Those two opponents were a 14-37 Houston team that routinely lays eggs on offense and a Brooklyn team that scored 111 points in a blowout win despite missing James Harden in addition to Kevin Durant.
Perimeter Defense
On March 20, the Hornets faced a Clipper offense that regularly makes a lot of threes, that ranks fifth in three-pointers made per game, and that scored 125 points in its 27-point victory over Charlotte.
It’s no coincidence that the Hornets are failing to limit opposing offenses that are able to rely rather heavily on their three-point shooting.
Throughout the season, Charlotte has owned one of the NBA’s worst perimeter defenses.
The Hornets allow the sixth-highest rate of open three-point attempts and allow by far the highest rate of wide open three-point attempts.
So three-point shooting is the top way to thrive against the Hornet defense.
This detail is great news for a Buck offense that, with its drive-and-kick game and its floor-spacing, makes the fourth-most three-pointers per game.
There are several individual Buck players of all positions to watch out for in this respect.
One guy worth naming is Jrue Holiday, who is converting half of his three-point attempts this month.
Hornet Offense vs. Buck Defense
Charlotte has alternated three times in a row now between scoring over 100 points and fewer than 100 points in a game.
Expect this pattern to continue as the Hornets struggle to reach 100 points tonight against a Buck defense that it matches up poorly against.
In the half-court, the Hornets love to attack the basket.
I won’t be unfair and emphasize the absence of their top facilitator and top scorers like LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward since Giannis is listed as ‘questionable’ for Milwaukee tonight.
But even without guys like Ball and Hayward, the Hornets still love to attempt shots within five feet of the basket.
This reliance on inside scoring is problematic against a Milwaukee defense that is known for its drop coverage on ball-screens and its help defense inside.
Given their defensive emphasis on the interior, Milwaukee allows the second-fewest field goal attempts and the fifth-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket
Charlotte is also heavily reliant on scoring in transition to offset general issues with its efficiency in the half-court.
But the Bucks allow the fewest points in transition per game as they are stacked with guys who ably run the court.
Parlay Verdict
Indiana wants to score inside and, regardless of its injuries tonight, will do that well against Orlando’s porous interior defense.
Defensively, the Pacers’ characteristically solid ball-screen defense will stymy a Magic offense that already misses its top scorers, whose offensive ceiling has already been very low this season, and that already struggles to be efficient in the ball-screens that it loves to run.
Charlotte wants to score inside and run in transition, but collides with a Milwaukee defense that heavily emphasizes protecting the interior and limiting opposing scoring in transition.
Defensively, the Hornet perimeter defense is uniquely vulnerable. Milwaukee, with its loaded three-point shooting personnel, will take advantage.
Best Bet: Parlay Pacers ATS & Bucks ATS (Odds TBA)
Feel free to parlay both of my favorite bets in order to maximize your profit.
Indiana Pacers vs. Orlando Magic
Friday, April 9, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida
The Importance of Injuries
When on Wednesday I successfully picked the Hornets to cover the spread against the Thunder, I had written about injuries.
I wrote that Thunder injuries made them a demonstrably very different kind of team that made it match up poorly with the Hornets.
It’s true that, for today’s game, possibly Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon may both be absent for Indiana.
But fading Indiana as a result of their absence would be unjustifiable for two reasons.
One, NBA oddsmakers will adjust the spread in order to account for their absence.
Two, contrary to what was the case for OKC, their absence does not make Indiana a different kind of time.
Pacer Offense vs. Magic Defense
Even since both Sabonis and Brogdon have been absent — that is, since April 3 — the Pacers are primarily a team that wants to attack the basket.
Since April 3, they rank third in attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
In this span, they’ve also been the ninth-most efficient team within this range of the basket.
If their field goal percentage within five feet of the basket since April 3 were a season-long statistic, the Pacers would rank third in the category.
Whereas Sabonis and Brogdon absorbed a significant ratio of the team’s shot attempts, several other Pacer players are stepping up in their absence.
Doug McDermott is one efficient scorer at the basket who uses his length to finish over his defenders.
Caris LeVert is a solid ball-handler who will back himself up to give himself more room to speed, shift, or steam his way past his on-ball defender.
Guys like McDermott and LeVert will thrive against a Magic defense that all year has been uniquely vulnerable in the interior.
The acquisition of Wendell Carter has not changed this vulnerability in Orlando’s interior defense.
Currently, Orlando ranks second-to-worst in opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Generally speaking, the Magic defense has shown poor form lately, allowing 137 points to Utah, 119 to Denver, and 131 to Washington in its last three games.
This overall defensive vulnerability is something that an Indiana offense that has proven it can score in bunches without Sabonis and Brogdon can take advantage of.
Magic Offense vs. Pacer Defense
It’s really hard to like Orlando if you don’t like its defense to do well.
Offensively, the ceiling for the Magic is very low, especially since the Magic lost former top team scorers Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier.
Overall, the Magic rank second-to-last in points per game.
What Orlando especially likes to do on offense — run ball-screens for the ball-handler — is something that, based on PPP (points per possession), the Magic do very inefficiently.
Orlando’s offense matches up especially poorly against a Pacer defense that allows the sixth-fewest PPP off of the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, April 9, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Scoring Defense
It’s true that, recently, the Hornet defense has been allowing fewer points per game.
But let’s examine its recent opponents in order to answer an important question: has the Hornet defense improved or is it facing favorable opponents?
Since March 22, two of the nine opponents that Charlotte has faced rank top-10 in three-pointers made per game.
Those two opponents were a 14-37 Houston team that routinely lays eggs on offense and a Brooklyn team that scored 111 points in a blowout win despite missing James Harden in addition to Kevin Durant.
Perimeter Defense
On March 20, the Hornets faced a Clipper offense that regularly makes a lot of threes, that ranks fifth in three-pointers made per game, and that scored 125 points in its 27-point victory over Charlotte.
It’s no coincidence that the Hornets are failing to limit opposing offenses that are able to rely rather heavily on their three-point shooting.
Throughout the season, Charlotte has owned one of the NBA’s worst perimeter defenses.
The Hornets allow the sixth-highest rate of open three-point attempts and allow by far the highest rate of wide open three-point attempts.
So three-point shooting is the top way to thrive against the Hornet defense.
This detail is great news for a Buck offense that, with its drive-and-kick game and its floor-spacing, makes the fourth-most three-pointers per game.
There are several individual Buck players of all positions to watch out for in this respect.
One guy worth naming is Jrue Holiday, who is converting half of his three-point attempts this month.
Hornet Offense vs. Buck Defense
Charlotte has alternated three times in a row now between scoring over 100 points and fewer than 100 points in a game.
Expect this pattern to continue as the Hornets struggle to reach 100 points tonight against a Buck defense that it matches up poorly against.
In the half-court, the Hornets love to attack the basket.
I won’t be unfair and emphasize the absence of their top facilitator and top scorers like LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward since Giannis is listed as ‘questionable’ for Milwaukee tonight.
But even without guys like Ball and Hayward, the Hornets still love to attempt shots within five feet of the basket.
This reliance on inside scoring is problematic against a Milwaukee defense that is known for its drop coverage on ball-screens and its help defense inside.
Given their defensive emphasis on the interior, Milwaukee allows the second-fewest field goal attempts and the fifth-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket
Charlotte is also heavily reliant on scoring in transition to offset general issues with its efficiency in the half-court.
But the Bucks allow the fewest points in transition per game as they are stacked with guys who ably run the court.
Parlay Verdict
Indiana wants to score inside and, regardless of its injuries tonight, will do that well against Orlando’s porous interior defense.
Defensively, the Pacers’ characteristically solid ball-screen defense will stymy a Magic offense that already misses its top scorers, whose offensive ceiling has already been very low this season, and that already struggles to be efficient in the ball-screens that it loves to run.
Charlotte wants to score inside and run in transition, but collides with a Milwaukee defense that heavily emphasizes protecting the interior and limiting opposing scoring in transition.
Defensively, the Hornet perimeter defense is uniquely vulnerable. Milwaukee, with its loaded three-point shooting personnel, will take advantage.
Best Bet: Parlay Pacers ATS & Bucks ATS (Odds TBA)
