NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Indiana Pacers vs. Sacramento Kings
Monday, January 11, 2020 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California
Trends
As of now, Sacramento is riding a five-game ATS losing streak.
There are two things to note here: average margin of defeat and points allowed.
During this five-game streak, the Kings have lost three times by over 20 points despite not being dogged by more than 5.5 points in any one of them.
In particular, they are being blown out in games where they are the underdog.
Moreover, Sacramento’s last four opponents accrued at least 125 points.
If this defensive trend continues, then we’ll only need the Kings to score around 100 points, which they have done in eight of their 10 games so far, in order to hit the over.
Perimeter Defense
Sacramento allows so many points partly because its perimeter defense is so poor.
A solid measure of the quality of Sacramento’s three-point defense is the following statistic: Sacramento allows the second-highest frequency of open three-point attempts.
“Open” here is defined as the nearest defender being 4-6 feet removed from the shooter. This statistic means that opposing shooters regularly attempt comfortable and uncontested shots behind the arc.
This defensive weakness is not something that Sacramento is able to patch up. The Kings allow the most open three-point attempts, meaning that teams regularly take advantage of what the hapless Kings are offering them.
Warren’s Absence: No Big Deal
Oddsmakers are giving us a better deal both on the “over” and on Indiana because TJ Warren is absent.
Now, I love Warren and he’s obviously a great player. But my point here is that NBA Oddsmakers are not accounting for match-up.
Warren was by no means ever a three-point shooter. So he isn’t the kind of player, anyways, who wants to exploit the Kings’ defensive weakness.
Indiana’s Advantage
Indiana’s match-up advantage explains the value that we find in betting on the Pacers and the “over.”
The Pacers possess plenty of three-point shooters who will exploit Sacramento’s defensive weakness.
Look out especially for Malcolm Brogdon, who is converting 47.5 percent of his three-point attempts.
Also look for Victor Oladipo, who is shooting 39.7 percent from behind the arc.
Domantas Sabonis
Indiana will find open shooters because of their energetic off-ball movement.
One key player who will facilitate their movement is center Domantas Sabonis, who is a great passing big man. He ranks second on the team averaging 6.1 assists per game.
The Pacers like to run their offense through Sabonis. Coming down the court, he already surprises people by using his positive vision and accurate passing to generate propitious ball movement.
He’s also crucial in the half-court game where he will absorb attention in the defense from the post position or the elbow.
Defensively, Sacramento is absolutely a team that will need to devote attention to any high-quality post player on the other team, especially a former All-Star team member like Sabonis.
The Kings allow the highest field goal percentage against shot attempts taken less than 10 feet removed from the basket.
They suffer from this statistic because they lack adequate rim protection and because they have to devote extra energy to trying to give their perimeter defense any security, which makes them more vulnerable in the interior.
So Sabonis can hurt them with his post-up game. In this area of the court, in front of the opponent’s basket, he possesses a variety of moves and shot types in his arsenal that makes him hard to stop.
In particular, he is known for his spin move and his soft hook shot.
The attention that he demands helps explain why he accrues so many assists. This attention also helps explain why Indiana is the third-most efficient team, as measured by PPP (points per possession), in executing a spot-up play.
On the other side, the Kings are one of the worst teams in defending the spot-up. They rank fifth-to-last in opposing PPP against this play type.
While Brogdon is more so somebody who will create for himself, guys like Aaron Holiday and Justin Holiday are effective and statistically efficient spot-up shooters, who will benefit from Sabonis.
With Sabonis posing such a threat, this is also the kind of game for Myles Turner to thrive in, as he is also comfortable spotting up.
The Rising Rookie
Oddsmakers do not account for the ascension of Sacramento guard Tyrese Haliburton.
As evident in games against Chicago and Denver, for example, there is a correlation between his playing time and the game exceeding the posted total.
Haliburton is playing more minutes in January because he is scoring more.
He is efficient both inside and outside the arc and accrues a lot of assists his solid vision. His versatility assures positive spacing and energetic ball movement and therefore makes the offense more threatening and more prolific.
While the Kings don’t have the weaponry and especially lack the defense to keep pace with Indiana, they have a rising stud, who was a steal in the NBA Draft, who will help them score enough points for the “over” to hit.
The Verdict
Sacramento is playing terribly especially on defense, which is why they are repeatedly failing to cover and repeatedly playing in games that go “over” the posted total.
Indiana has the personnel to exploit the Kings’ particular weakness, which is three-point defense. While the Kings can counter with still lesser known but ascending talents like Haliburton, they’re not the type of team to match their defense’s worst efforts with any regularity.
Best Bet: Parlay Pacers -5 at -108 & Over 226 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Indiana Pacers vs. Sacramento Kings
Monday, January 11, 2020 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California
Trends
As of now, Sacramento is riding a five-game ATS losing streak.
There are two things to note here: average margin of defeat and points allowed.
During this five-game streak, the Kings have lost three times by over 20 points despite not being dogged by more than 5.5 points in any one of them.
In particular, they are being blown out in games where they are the underdog.
Moreover, Sacramento’s last four opponents accrued at least 125 points.
If this defensive trend continues, then we’ll only need the Kings to score around 100 points, which they have done in eight of their 10 games so far, in order to hit the over.
Perimeter Defense
Sacramento allows so many points partly because its perimeter defense is so poor.
A solid measure of the quality of Sacramento’s three-point defense is the following statistic: Sacramento allows the second-highest frequency of open three-point attempts.
“Open” here is defined as the nearest defender being 4-6 feet removed from the shooter. This statistic means that opposing shooters regularly attempt comfortable and uncontested shots behind the arc.
This defensive weakness is not something that Sacramento is able to patch up. The Kings allow the most open three-point attempts, meaning that teams regularly take advantage of what the hapless Kings are offering them.
Warren’s Absence: No Big Deal
Oddsmakers are giving us a better deal both on the “over” and on Indiana because TJ Warren is absent.
Now, I love Warren and he’s obviously a great player. But my point here is that NBA Oddsmakers are not accounting for match-up.
Warren was by no means ever a three-point shooter. So he isn’t the kind of player, anyways, who wants to exploit the Kings’ defensive weakness.
Indiana’s Advantage
Indiana’s match-up advantage explains the value that we find in betting on the Pacers and the “over.”
The Pacers possess plenty of three-point shooters who will exploit Sacramento’s defensive weakness.
Look out especially for Malcolm Brogdon, who is converting 47.5 percent of his three-point attempts.
Also look for Victor Oladipo, who is shooting 39.7 percent from behind the arc.
Domantas Sabonis
Indiana will find open shooters because of their energetic off-ball movement.
One key player who will facilitate their movement is center Domantas Sabonis, who is a great passing big man. He ranks second on the team averaging 6.1 assists per game.
The Pacers like to run their offense through Sabonis. Coming down the court, he already surprises people by using his positive vision and accurate passing to generate propitious ball movement.
He’s also crucial in the half-court game where he will absorb attention in the defense from the post position or the elbow.
Defensively, Sacramento is absolutely a team that will need to devote attention to any high-quality post player on the other team, especially a former All-Star team member like Sabonis.
The Kings allow the highest field goal percentage against shot attempts taken less than 10 feet removed from the basket.
They suffer from this statistic because they lack adequate rim protection and because they have to devote extra energy to trying to give their perimeter defense any security, which makes them more vulnerable in the interior.
So Sabonis can hurt them with his post-up game. In this area of the court, in front of the opponent’s basket, he possesses a variety of moves and shot types in his arsenal that makes him hard to stop.
In particular, he is known for his spin move and his soft hook shot.
The attention that he demands helps explain why he accrues so many assists. This attention also helps explain why Indiana is the third-most efficient team, as measured by PPP (points per possession), in executing a spot-up play.
On the other side, the Kings are one of the worst teams in defending the spot-up. They rank fifth-to-last in opposing PPP against this play type.
While Brogdon is more so somebody who will create for himself, guys like Aaron Holiday and Justin Holiday are effective and statistically efficient spot-up shooters, who will benefit from Sabonis.
With Sabonis posing such a threat, this is also the kind of game for Myles Turner to thrive in, as he is also comfortable spotting up.
The Rising Rookie
Oddsmakers do not account for the ascension of Sacramento guard Tyrese Haliburton.
As evident in games against Chicago and Denver, for example, there is a correlation between his playing time and the game exceeding the posted total.
Haliburton is playing more minutes in January because he is scoring more.
He is efficient both inside and outside the arc and accrues a lot of assists his solid vision. His versatility assures positive spacing and energetic ball movement and therefore makes the offense more threatening and more prolific.
While the Kings don’t have the weaponry and especially lack the defense to keep pace with Indiana, they have a rising stud, who was a steal in the NBA Draft, who will help them score enough points for the “over” to hit.
The Verdict
Sacramento is playing terribly especially on defense, which is why they are repeatedly failing to cover and repeatedly playing in games that go “over” the posted total.
Indiana has the personnel to exploit the Kings’ particular weakness, which is three-point defense. While the Kings can counter with still lesser known but ascending talents like Haliburton, they’re not the type of team to match their defense’s worst efforts with any regularity.
Best Bet: Parlay Pacers -5 at -108 & Over 226 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
