NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics
Friday, February 26, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
Pacer Offense vs. Celtic Defense
A tremendous part of Indiana’s offense is attacking the basket.
Key here is Domantas Sabonis, who plays well above his size and is known as a physical type of player.
Though known as a three-point shooter throughout his career, Doug McDermott is using his length more often to finish over defenders. He’s converting 65.5 percent of his attempts within five feet of the basket.
Malcolm Brogdon is someone who can create for himself off the dribble. He, too, likes to attack the basket.
Overall, no team attempts more field goals per game within five feet of the basket than Indiana and it’s not even close.
Defensively, few teams struggle to protect the rim more than Boston.
Center Daniel Theis is relatively mobile for a center.
But at 6’8, 245 pounds, he’s rather undersized for the position.
I get that Sabonis isn’t the biggest center in the world, either.
Playing style is key here, though. Theis is a small-ball kind of center who is comfortable out in space.
Sabonis is averaging 21.5 points per game largely because of how he uses his physicality inside.
With Theis and other rim-protectng liabilities, the Celtics rank sixth-worst in limiting field goal percentage within five feet of the basket where they will struggle against the bully Sabonis and his teammates.
Celtic Offense vs. Pacer Defense
For its offense, Boston relies heavily on pick-and-roll actions for the ball-handler.
On defense, however, Indiana typically performs strongly against teams who are reliant on this play type.
Most recently, the Pacers held a Utah team that runs this type of play with the second-most frequency to 103 points.
Overall, they rank eight-best in limiting PPP (points per possession) on this play type.
A big part of the credit for Indiana’s ball-screen defense goes to Brogdon, who is more physical and can fight through ball-screens.
Boston’s Rut
Note that the Celtics are struggling to find any sort of success at the moment.
They are suffering 0-3 SU and ATS runs. Their last three straight-up losses came as the favored team.
Phoenix Suns vs. Chicago Bulls
Friday, February 26, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago, Illinois
The Return of Wendell Carter Jr.
The reintroduction of center Wendell Carter Jr. into Chicago’s lineup has made a tremendous difference for the Bull defense.
One might ask: isn’t Carter Jr. not the biggest center out there and didn’t i just criticize Theis’ defense as a result of his physical limitations?
But i’ll make the same point: it’s about playing bigger than you are. Carter Jr. does just that with his 7’5 wingspan.
He also uses his IQ to deter a lot of shots at the basket.
Since February 15, his first day back on the job, Chicago ranks seventh-best at limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket. Carter Jr. is a big reason why.
Phoenix Offense vs. Bull Defense
One of Phoenix’s most reliable sources of offense has been its efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Offensively, Phoenix is in trouble against a Bull defense that is equipped to take away what the Suns do best.
Carter Jr. is already well-tested as Chicago’s defensive anchor.
Lately, for example, he helped limit Domantas Sabonis to arguably his worst outing of the year based on field goal percentage and number of turnovers.
Recently, the Suns have been more reliant on attempting shots further away from the basket.
But Carter Jr. is important here, too, albeit indirectly.
His presence gives Bull defenders the confidence to guard more aggressively away from the basket.
By guarding aggressively, they do a great job of limiting the frequency with which opposing shooters manage to procure open or wide-open three-point attempts.
Chicago Offense vs. Phoenix Defense
This is a great spot for the Sun defense, typically one of the NBA’s best in limiting opposing scoring but coming off a poor performance.
Good defenses like the Suns — which rank fourth-best in scoring defense — will want to reestablish their pride in the next game.
Match-up wise, Phoenix’s defense is in a good position to bounce back against Chicago’s offense.
The Bulls love to run pick-and-roll actions for the ball-handler.
But the Suns excel at stopping teams who prefer this play type.
For example, they held Portland, which also relies heavily on this same play type, to 100 points.
They also held the Magic and the mighty Jazz who, like Chicago, ranks top-six in frequency of ball-screens for the ball-handler, to fewer than 100 points.
Expect, therefore, that the Suns limit Chicago to 100 points or fewer.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Golden State Warriors
Friday, February 26, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco, California
Charlotte’s Perimeter Defense
The poor quality of Charlotte’s perimeter defense is evident in the fact that Charlotte ranks 10th-worst in limiting opposing open three-point attempts and worst in limiting opposing wide open three-point attempts.
Teams that love to shoot three-pointers are able to take advantage. Most recently, Utah exploited Charlotte’s defense for 132 points.
One might wonder why the Warriors, though, recently lost to Charlotte while only producing 100 points.
In that game, superstar Steph Curry did not play.
Warrior Offense vs. Hornet Defense
As one would expect, Curry is converting 42.7 percent of his three-point attempts.
He is coming off a rare bad outing, but remains typically good at bouncing back in the next game.
His unlimited range and his smooth release make him extremely difficult to guard. He’s a major weapon that opposing defenses have to focus on.
Poor perimeter defense presents a unique problem against a Warrior team that largely because of Curry ranks seventh in three-pointers made per game.
Hornet Offense vs. Warrior Defense
As evident in their positive defensive ratings, both Andrew Wiggins and James Wiseman are valuable defenders.
Wiggins is effective at swatting passes when opposing wings try to drive to the basket.
As a rim protector, Wiseman is making strides as he utilizes his length and athleticism to co-lead the Warriors with Wiggins in blocks per game.
Both players help explain why Golden State ranks seventh-best in limiting opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Strong rim protection is uniquely valuable against a Hornet offense that mostly wants to attack the basket.
Charlotte also wants to run a lot in transition to offset a rather inefficient half-court offense.
But as measured by opposing PPP, the Warriors likewise own one of the top transition defenses.
It helps to have intelligent defenders like Draymond Green who does a lot of things to orchestrate Golden State’s transition defense.
Parlay Verdict
Indiana will bully slumping Boston inside while the Celtics struggle with the Pacers’ ball-screen defense.
Chicago and Phoenix defenses will take away what the opposing offense likes to do best.
Golden State will outshoot Charlotte while confining the Hornets to its half-court offense, which will be uniquely limited tonight.
Parlay: Pacers +3 at -110, Bulls/Suns under 228.5 at -110, Warriors -6 at -115 at +581 with Bookmaker
Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics
Friday, February 26, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
Pacer Offense vs. Celtic Defense
A tremendous part of Indiana’s offense is attacking the basket.
Key here is Domantas Sabonis, who plays well above his size and is known as a physical type of player.
Though known as a three-point shooter throughout his career, Doug McDermott is using his length more often to finish over defenders. He’s converting 65.5 percent of his attempts within five feet of the basket.
Malcolm Brogdon is someone who can create for himself off the dribble. He, too, likes to attack the basket.
Overall, no team attempts more field goals per game within five feet of the basket than Indiana and it’s not even close.
Defensively, few teams struggle to protect the rim more than Boston.
Center Daniel Theis is relatively mobile for a center.
But at 6’8, 245 pounds, he’s rather undersized for the position.
I get that Sabonis isn’t the biggest center in the world, either.
Playing style is key here, though. Theis is a small-ball kind of center who is comfortable out in space.
Sabonis is averaging 21.5 points per game largely because of how he uses his physicality inside.
With Theis and other rim-protectng liabilities, the Celtics rank sixth-worst in limiting field goal percentage within five feet of the basket where they will struggle against the bully Sabonis and his teammates.
Celtic Offense vs. Pacer Defense
For its offense, Boston relies heavily on pick-and-roll actions for the ball-handler.
On defense, however, Indiana typically performs strongly against teams who are reliant on this play type.
Most recently, the Pacers held a Utah team that runs this type of play with the second-most frequency to 103 points.
Overall, they rank eight-best in limiting PPP (points per possession) on this play type.
A big part of the credit for Indiana’s ball-screen defense goes to Brogdon, who is more physical and can fight through ball-screens.
Boston’s Rut
Note that the Celtics are struggling to find any sort of success at the moment.
They are suffering 0-3 SU and ATS runs. Their last three straight-up losses came as the favored team.
Phoenix Suns vs. Chicago Bulls
Friday, February 26, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago, Illinois
The Return of Wendell Carter Jr.
The reintroduction of center Wendell Carter Jr. into Chicago’s lineup has made a tremendous difference for the Bull defense.
One might ask: isn’t Carter Jr. not the biggest center out there and didn’t i just criticize Theis’ defense as a result of his physical limitations?
But i’ll make the same point: it’s about playing bigger than you are. Carter Jr. does just that with his 7’5 wingspan.
He also uses his IQ to deter a lot of shots at the basket.
Since February 15, his first day back on the job, Chicago ranks seventh-best at limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket. Carter Jr. is a big reason why.
Phoenix Offense vs. Bull Defense
One of Phoenix’s most reliable sources of offense has been its efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Offensively, Phoenix is in trouble against a Bull defense that is equipped to take away what the Suns do best.
Carter Jr. is already well-tested as Chicago’s defensive anchor.
Lately, for example, he helped limit Domantas Sabonis to arguably his worst outing of the year based on field goal percentage and number of turnovers.
Recently, the Suns have been more reliant on attempting shots further away from the basket.
But Carter Jr. is important here, too, albeit indirectly.
His presence gives Bull defenders the confidence to guard more aggressively away from the basket.
By guarding aggressively, they do a great job of limiting the frequency with which opposing shooters manage to procure open or wide-open three-point attempts.
Chicago Offense vs. Phoenix Defense
This is a great spot for the Sun defense, typically one of the NBA’s best in limiting opposing scoring but coming off a poor performance.
Good defenses like the Suns — which rank fourth-best in scoring defense — will want to reestablish their pride in the next game.
Match-up wise, Phoenix’s defense is in a good position to bounce back against Chicago’s offense.
The Bulls love to run pick-and-roll actions for the ball-handler.
But the Suns excel at stopping teams who prefer this play type.
For example, they held Portland, which also relies heavily on this same play type, to 100 points.
They also held the Magic and the mighty Jazz who, like Chicago, ranks top-six in frequency of ball-screens for the ball-handler, to fewer than 100 points.
Expect, therefore, that the Suns limit Chicago to 100 points or fewer.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Golden State Warriors
Friday, February 26, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco, California
Charlotte’s Perimeter Defense
The poor quality of Charlotte’s perimeter defense is evident in the fact that Charlotte ranks 10th-worst in limiting opposing open three-point attempts and worst in limiting opposing wide open three-point attempts.
Teams that love to shoot three-pointers are able to take advantage. Most recently, Utah exploited Charlotte’s defense for 132 points.
One might wonder why the Warriors, though, recently lost to Charlotte while only producing 100 points.
In that game, superstar Steph Curry did not play.
Warrior Offense vs. Hornet Defense
As one would expect, Curry is converting 42.7 percent of his three-point attempts.
He is coming off a rare bad outing, but remains typically good at bouncing back in the next game.
His unlimited range and his smooth release make him extremely difficult to guard. He’s a major weapon that opposing defenses have to focus on.
Poor perimeter defense presents a unique problem against a Warrior team that largely because of Curry ranks seventh in three-pointers made per game.
Hornet Offense vs. Warrior Defense
As evident in their positive defensive ratings, both Andrew Wiggins and James Wiseman are valuable defenders.
Wiggins is effective at swatting passes when opposing wings try to drive to the basket.
As a rim protector, Wiseman is making strides as he utilizes his length and athleticism to co-lead the Warriors with Wiggins in blocks per game.
Both players help explain why Golden State ranks seventh-best in limiting opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Strong rim protection is uniquely valuable against a Hornet offense that mostly wants to attack the basket.
Charlotte also wants to run a lot in transition to offset a rather inefficient half-court offense.
But as measured by opposing PPP, the Warriors likewise own one of the top transition defenses.
It helps to have intelligent defenders like Draymond Green who does a lot of things to orchestrate Golden State’s transition defense.
Parlay Verdict
Indiana will bully slumping Boston inside while the Celtics struggle with the Pacers’ ball-screen defense.
Chicago and Phoenix defenses will take away what the opposing offense likes to do best.
Golden State will outshoot Charlotte while confining the Hornets to its half-court offense, which will be uniquely limited tonight.
Parlay: Pacers +3 at -110, Bulls/Suns under 228.5 at -110, Warriors -6 at -115 at +581 with Bookmaker
