NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Indiana Pacers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Monday, March 1, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Indiana’s Scoring Problems
It is difficult to use season-long statistics to describe Indiana’s scoring woes because the Pacers accumulate a lot of points against losing teams and low-ranked defenses.
In February, though, the Pacers exceeded 107 points against only one team that is above .500.
Against Milwaukee, they reached 110 points after scoring 38 fourth-quarter points in a game that the Bucks already easily had in the bag.
Indiana lost two would-be starters in Victor Oladipo/Caris LeVert and TJ Warren.
Oladipo was traded, LeVert is out for the season, and Warren remains injured.
Without those players, power forward Domantas Sabonis and point guard Malcolm Brogdon have to shoulder a tremendous part of the team’s responsibility to score.
Both players are averaging 21.4 points per game, which are 8.1 more than the team’s next-leading scorer.
Sabonis and Brogdon rely a lot on volume in order to accrue as many points as they do.
Brogdon attempts the most field goals per game on the team because he is a multi-level scorer.
He will sometimes play hero ball, looking to create a shot attempt for himself. Not a natural point guard, he will also move off the ball in order to get open for a three-point attempt.
While he loves to attack inside, Brogdon is also Indiana’s third-best three-point shooter by percentage. Indiana’s second-most efficient one, Jeremy Lamb, is listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s game.
The Pacers are in even more trouble because Brogdon is likewise listed as ‘questionable’ with a knee injury for tonight’s game.
His absence would deepen the void of Pacer scoring talent.
Pacer Offense vs. 76er Defense
With or without Brogdon, the Pacers love to attack inside. They attempt the most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
They like to post up with Sabonis. Sabonis will also stand at the top of the key and act as a decision-maker, although he often makes the wrong pass.
Other guys, like Doug McDermott, are traditionally known for their three-point shooting, but are now trying to use their length to become rim-attackers.
Reliance on scoring inside is problematic against a Philadelphia defense that employs a multitude of good rim-protectors to rank eighth-best in limiting opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Depth at Center
Besides Joel Embiid, Dwight Howard is a solid rim protector as evidenced by his good defensive rating. Earlier in his career, Howard won Defensive Player of the Year three times in a row.
The difference between Embiid and Howard is one of offensive production. But Howard can still use his strength inside, where Indiana is physically rather weak, in order to bother the Pacers offensively.
Although, Howard does average 24.1 fewer points per game than Embiid.
76er Offense vs. Pacer Defense
Indiana typically struggles against physical front courts.
In last year’s playoffs, Miami provided a notorious example of Indiana’s weakness by bullying the Pacers inside.
With Embiid and Howard, the 76ers possess the same sort of strength.
Sabonis will be occupied with Philadelphia’s Tobias Harris, who can stretch the floor with efficient three-point shooting.
Harris is an effective catch-and-shoot guy, but he is also an effective dribbler and ably navigates contact to score inside.
His ability to stretch the floor opens up space inside for a host of guys efficient in the mid-range game and driving threats like Ben Simmons.
Key Trend
In February, Indiana is 0-6 ATS against teams with a winning record.
So note that the Pacers repeatedly struggle against good teams to a degree that oddsmakers fail to account for.
Messy offensive play, a lack of go-to scorers, and soft and otherwise insufficient defense plague the Pacers.
Utah Jazz vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Monday, March 1, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana
Utah Offense vs. New Orleans Defense
Offensively, Utah relies heavily on attempting three-pointers. The Jazz are built to succeed by converting those attempts.
They attempt the most three-pointers per game and rank third in three-point percentage thanks to a host of high-percentage shooters like Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic.
The Jazz match up well with a Pelican defense that ranks eighth-worst in limiting open three-point attempts and second-to-worst in limiting wide open three-point attempts.
Teams consistently get open from deep when playing the Pelicans, which is something that Utah already does a great job at like by employing screens for the ball-handler or for a teammate without the ball.
New Orleans Offense vs. Utah Defense
New Orleans lacks Utah’s three-point shooting ability. The Pelicans rank in the bottom half in three-point percentage.
Instead, New Orleans primarily wants to attack inside.
The Jazz defense is primed to stop such an offense because they boast one of the NBA’s top rim protectors in Rudy Gobert.
Gobert has won Defensive Player of the Year twice and currently ranks second in blocks per game.
So A Pelican offense that attempts the second-highest rate of field goal attempts within five feet at the basket matches up poorly with a Jazz defense that ranks sixth-best in limiting the opponent’s efficiency from this proximity to the basket.
Parlay Verdict
Worst-case scenario, Philadelphia plays without Embiid against a Pacer team playing Brogdon.
But no matter what, the 76ers possess the physical advantage on the glass and otherwise inside.
Indiana doesn’t challenge a good mid-range game, which the 76ers are superb at executing.
They still have abundant weapons on offense with which to outpace Indiana’s still injury-ridden and often messy offense.
If both Brogdon and Embiid don’t play, also take the “under” in this game because Brogdon is a key scorer for Indiana and Howard completely lacks Embiid’s scoring prowess, although he remains a stout rim-protector.
Furthermore, the Pelicans cannot stop the Jazz from doing what they do best, but Utah will stop the Pelicans from doing what they do best.
Best Bet: Parlay 76ers ATS, Under (if Embiid and Brogdon sit), and Jazz -7 at -108 with Heritage.
Indiana Pacers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Monday, March 1, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Indiana’s Scoring Problems
It is difficult to use season-long statistics to describe Indiana’s scoring woes because the Pacers accumulate a lot of points against losing teams and low-ranked defenses.
In February, though, the Pacers exceeded 107 points against only one team that is above .500.
Against Milwaukee, they reached 110 points after scoring 38 fourth-quarter points in a game that the Bucks already easily had in the bag.
Indiana lost two would-be starters in Victor Oladipo/Caris LeVert and TJ Warren.
Oladipo was traded, LeVert is out for the season, and Warren remains injured.
Without those players, power forward Domantas Sabonis and point guard Malcolm Brogdon have to shoulder a tremendous part of the team’s responsibility to score.
Both players are averaging 21.4 points per game, which are 8.1 more than the team’s next-leading scorer.
Sabonis and Brogdon rely a lot on volume in order to accrue as many points as they do.
Brogdon attempts the most field goals per game on the team because he is a multi-level scorer.
He will sometimes play hero ball, looking to create a shot attempt for himself. Not a natural point guard, he will also move off the ball in order to get open for a three-point attempt.
While he loves to attack inside, Brogdon is also Indiana’s third-best three-point shooter by percentage. Indiana’s second-most efficient one, Jeremy Lamb, is listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s game.
The Pacers are in even more trouble because Brogdon is likewise listed as ‘questionable’ with a knee injury for tonight’s game.
His absence would deepen the void of Pacer scoring talent.
Pacer Offense vs. 76er Defense
With or without Brogdon, the Pacers love to attack inside. They attempt the most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
They like to post up with Sabonis. Sabonis will also stand at the top of the key and act as a decision-maker, although he often makes the wrong pass.
Other guys, like Doug McDermott, are traditionally known for their three-point shooting, but are now trying to use their length to become rim-attackers.
Reliance on scoring inside is problematic against a Philadelphia defense that employs a multitude of good rim-protectors to rank eighth-best in limiting opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Depth at Center
Besides Joel Embiid, Dwight Howard is a solid rim protector as evidenced by his good defensive rating. Earlier in his career, Howard won Defensive Player of the Year three times in a row.
The difference between Embiid and Howard is one of offensive production. But Howard can still use his strength inside, where Indiana is physically rather weak, in order to bother the Pacers offensively.
Although, Howard does average 24.1 fewer points per game than Embiid.
76er Offense vs. Pacer Defense
Indiana typically struggles against physical front courts.
In last year’s playoffs, Miami provided a notorious example of Indiana’s weakness by bullying the Pacers inside.
With Embiid and Howard, the 76ers possess the same sort of strength.
Sabonis will be occupied with Philadelphia’s Tobias Harris, who can stretch the floor with efficient three-point shooting.
Harris is an effective catch-and-shoot guy, but he is also an effective dribbler and ably navigates contact to score inside.
His ability to stretch the floor opens up space inside for a host of guys efficient in the mid-range game and driving threats like Ben Simmons.
Key Trend
In February, Indiana is 0-6 ATS against teams with a winning record.
So note that the Pacers repeatedly struggle against good teams to a degree that oddsmakers fail to account for.
Messy offensive play, a lack of go-to scorers, and soft and otherwise insufficient defense plague the Pacers.
Utah Jazz vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Monday, March 1, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana
Utah Offense vs. New Orleans Defense
Offensively, Utah relies heavily on attempting three-pointers. The Jazz are built to succeed by converting those attempts.
They attempt the most three-pointers per game and rank third in three-point percentage thanks to a host of high-percentage shooters like Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic.
The Jazz match up well with a Pelican defense that ranks eighth-worst in limiting open three-point attempts and second-to-worst in limiting wide open three-point attempts.
Teams consistently get open from deep when playing the Pelicans, which is something that Utah already does a great job at like by employing screens for the ball-handler or for a teammate without the ball.
New Orleans Offense vs. Utah Defense
New Orleans lacks Utah’s three-point shooting ability. The Pelicans rank in the bottom half in three-point percentage.
Instead, New Orleans primarily wants to attack inside.
The Jazz defense is primed to stop such an offense because they boast one of the NBA’s top rim protectors in Rudy Gobert.
Gobert has won Defensive Player of the Year twice and currently ranks second in blocks per game.
So A Pelican offense that attempts the second-highest rate of field goal attempts within five feet at the basket matches up poorly with a Jazz defense that ranks sixth-best in limiting the opponent’s efficiency from this proximity to the basket.
Parlay Verdict
Worst-case scenario, Philadelphia plays without Embiid against a Pacer team playing Brogdon.
But no matter what, the 76ers possess the physical advantage on the glass and otherwise inside.
Indiana doesn’t challenge a good mid-range game, which the 76ers are superb at executing.
They still have abundant weapons on offense with which to outpace Indiana’s still injury-ridden and often messy offense.
If both Brogdon and Embiid don’t play, also take the “under” in this game because Brogdon is a key scorer for Indiana and Howard completely lacks Embiid’s scoring prowess, although he remains a stout rim-protector.
Furthermore, the Pelicans cannot stop the Jazz from doing what they do best, but Utah will stop the Pelicans from doing what they do best.
Best Bet: Parlay 76ers ATS, Under (if Embiid and Brogdon sit), and Jazz -7 at -108 with Heritage.
