Pac-12 Win Totals: College Football Best Bets
UCLA
Team Breakdown
UCLA’s problem begins with starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson aka DTR.
His 130.5 passer rating after two seasons is, compared with other quarterbacks, quite poor. Nor does he possess any other redeeming abilities.
He can’t even protect the ball well at all. Last year, he threw 12 interceptions.
In general, he is an inefficient and inaccurate quarterback, which is why his career completion percentage remains under 60 percent.
DTR has less support from the team’s skill positions.
Most importantly, tight ends represent a staple in the Bruins’ offense. So the team will suffer from its offseason overhaul at the tight end position after Devin Asiasi departed.
Asiasi was the team’s second-leading pass-catcher last season in terms of receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
Now, the Bruins lack the personnel to make much out of their famously preferred tight-end heavy sets.
Despite ranking 105th in total defense, UCLA’s defense retains the leadership of coordinator Jerry Azzinaro.
Although they lost all of their starting linebackers and face an incredible degree of inexperience especially at outside linebacker, their weakest point likely remains the secondary.
Last year, the pass defense ranked 127th as measured by opposing passer rating.
Schedule & Other Teams
College football oddsmakers are asking UCLA to win more than half of its games this season.
We can certainly chalk up Oregon and Washington as losses.
For starters, both teams feature loaded secondaries that will make life impossible for DTR.
The Ducks benefit from top cornerback Deommodore Lenoir opting back in. Mykael Wright also promises to build off a season that saw him earn an All-Pac 12 honorable mention.
As for the Huskies, their secondary returns nearly everybody. They are led by All-Pac 12 first-teamer, cornerback Elijah Molden.
So we only need the Bruins to lose one more game.
Arizona
The thing is: I even think that they lose to Arizona, which college football oddsmakers have posted at over/under one win (I find this puzzling).
In terms of returning production, the Wildcats have a significant advantage compared to the rest of college football.
At quarterback, Grant Gunnell benefits from the experience that he accrued last year. He amassed nine touchdowns to one interception, showing comfort in the offense’s spread passing attack.
Gunnell already has chemistry with his receivers, all but one of which are returning.
On defense, besides returning two starting cornerbacks with which to challenge UCLA’s newfound dependence on wide receivers, the Wildcats benefit from having invested with extreme devotion in their defensive line.
Arizona signed 10 defensive linemen in its last two recruiting classes. Now the production and talent is there to interfere with a very young UCLA offensive line especially in the middle.
Colorado & Arizona State
While Colorado has a new head coach, don’t expect any kind of a learning curve that you’ll see with, for example, Washington State and Arizona State. In contrast to those teams, Colorado retained its defensive coordinator and established an offensive coordinator from within the preexisting coaching staff.
With a bevy of new offensive coaches and tremendous inexperience as measured by number of underclassmen and transfers, Arizona State will still be experiencing a learning curve when these two teams meet for the third game of the season.
Offensively, ASU’s offensive line struggles will continue with four players at the position having departed and with a lot of new faces and sub-four-star talent.
Last year, top running back Eno Benjamin regressed to a 4.3 YPC figure because of ASU’s still weak offensive line.
Benjamin is now in the NFL and the position is quite thin with his two backups also being gone.
Daniels will also be running for his life.
Towards the end of last season, the Buffaloes figured out how to generate more pass rush — which is partly why their continuity at defensive coordinator is so important.
One observes, statistically, the stark uptick in sack percentage in the latter stages of their season. They will continue this uptick as they return their top defensive linemen.
At quarterback, Colorado can feature somebody who’s been with the team and knows the offense, although competition remains fierce for the starting job.
Whoever wins this job will have KD Nixon to look forward to. He will get to play a bigger role with Laviska Shenault in the NFL. Nixon enjoyed strong performances last year against both UCLA and Arizona State.
Plenty of physically promising talent is behind Nixon at the position. This talent includes Shenault’s little brother, other physically well-tooled specimen, and guys Daniel Arias who have made big plays but needed more playing time.
Like UCLA’s, Arizona State’s secondary inspires minimal optimism. The Sun Devils were known for giving up big plays through the air last year and they ranked 82nd in opposing passer rating.
Since I like Colorado over Arizona State, a play on the Sun Devils “under” becomes strongly justified.
We just need one other team to beat the Sun Devils. USC, with its significant talent returning from last year’s 27th-ranked scoring offense and with its depth at cornerback, can beat them. Utah, which shouldn’t drop off too heavily, can be another.
Best Bets: UCLA Under 3.5 Wins (-150) at Bovada, Arizona Over 1 Win (-180) at Bovada, Colorado Over 1.5 Wins (-150) at Bovada, Arizona State Under 4.5 Wins (EV) at Bovada
UCLA
Team Breakdown
UCLA’s problem begins with starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson aka DTR.
His 130.5 passer rating after two seasons is, compared with other quarterbacks, quite poor. Nor does he possess any other redeeming abilities.
He can’t even protect the ball well at all. Last year, he threw 12 interceptions.
In general, he is an inefficient and inaccurate quarterback, which is why his career completion percentage remains under 60 percent.
DTR has less support from the team’s skill positions.
Most importantly, tight ends represent a staple in the Bruins’ offense. So the team will suffer from its offseason overhaul at the tight end position after Devin Asiasi departed.
Asiasi was the team’s second-leading pass-catcher last season in terms of receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
Now, the Bruins lack the personnel to make much out of their famously preferred tight-end heavy sets.
Despite ranking 105th in total defense, UCLA’s defense retains the leadership of coordinator Jerry Azzinaro.
Although they lost all of their starting linebackers and face an incredible degree of inexperience especially at outside linebacker, their weakest point likely remains the secondary.
Last year, the pass defense ranked 127th as measured by opposing passer rating.
Schedule & Other Teams
College football oddsmakers are asking UCLA to win more than half of its games this season.
We can certainly chalk up Oregon and Washington as losses.
For starters, both teams feature loaded secondaries that will make life impossible for DTR.
The Ducks benefit from top cornerback Deommodore Lenoir opting back in. Mykael Wright also promises to build off a season that saw him earn an All-Pac 12 honorable mention.
As for the Huskies, their secondary returns nearly everybody. They are led by All-Pac 12 first-teamer, cornerback Elijah Molden.
So we only need the Bruins to lose one more game.
Arizona
The thing is: I even think that they lose to Arizona, which college football oddsmakers have posted at over/under one win (I find this puzzling).
In terms of returning production, the Wildcats have a significant advantage compared to the rest of college football.
At quarterback, Grant Gunnell benefits from the experience that he accrued last year. He amassed nine touchdowns to one interception, showing comfort in the offense’s spread passing attack.
Gunnell already has chemistry with his receivers, all but one of which are returning.
On defense, besides returning two starting cornerbacks with which to challenge UCLA’s newfound dependence on wide receivers, the Wildcats benefit from having invested with extreme devotion in their defensive line.
Arizona signed 10 defensive linemen in its last two recruiting classes. Now the production and talent is there to interfere with a very young UCLA offensive line especially in the middle.
Colorado & Arizona State
While Colorado has a new head coach, don’t expect any kind of a learning curve that you’ll see with, for example, Washington State and Arizona State. In contrast to those teams, Colorado retained its defensive coordinator and established an offensive coordinator from within the preexisting coaching staff.
With a bevy of new offensive coaches and tremendous inexperience as measured by number of underclassmen and transfers, Arizona State will still be experiencing a learning curve when these two teams meet for the third game of the season.
Offensively, ASU’s offensive line struggles will continue with four players at the position having departed and with a lot of new faces and sub-four-star talent.
Last year, top running back Eno Benjamin regressed to a 4.3 YPC figure because of ASU’s still weak offensive line.
Benjamin is now in the NFL and the position is quite thin with his two backups also being gone.
Daniels will also be running for his life.
Towards the end of last season, the Buffaloes figured out how to generate more pass rush — which is partly why their continuity at defensive coordinator is so important.
One observes, statistically, the stark uptick in sack percentage in the latter stages of their season. They will continue this uptick as they return their top defensive linemen.
At quarterback, Colorado can feature somebody who’s been with the team and knows the offense, although competition remains fierce for the starting job.
Whoever wins this job will have KD Nixon to look forward to. He will get to play a bigger role with Laviska Shenault in the NFL. Nixon enjoyed strong performances last year against both UCLA and Arizona State.
Plenty of physically promising talent is behind Nixon at the position. This talent includes Shenault’s little brother, other physically well-tooled specimen, and guys Daniel Arias who have made big plays but needed more playing time.
Like UCLA’s, Arizona State’s secondary inspires minimal optimism. The Sun Devils were known for giving up big plays through the air last year and they ranked 82nd in opposing passer rating.
Since I like Colorado over Arizona State, a play on the Sun Devils “under” becomes strongly justified.
We just need one other team to beat the Sun Devils. USC, with its significant talent returning from last year’s 27th-ranked scoring offense and with its depth at cornerback, can beat them. Utah, which shouldn’t drop off too heavily, can be another.
Best Bets: UCLA Under 3.5 Wins (-150) at Bovada, Arizona Over 1 Win (-180) at Bovada, Colorado Over 1.5 Wins (-150) at Bovada, Arizona State Under 4.5 Wins (EV) at Bovada
