Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Play2win Sports Consultant for layingthepoint.com
35+ years of experience, handicapping and wagering on sports and horse racing
Twitter
P2Play2win
Tik Tokplay2win.sportsconsult
Opening Day at Historic (1863) Saratoga Race Course was on Thursday 7/14 and the meets runs through Labor Day 9/5. Saratoga is a very prestigious track and meet that is not only rich in tradition but it’s literally in my backyard. I live 30 miles from the track and have lived here my entire life and started attending the races right out of diapers, literally. Given my experience with horse racing, but Saratoga meet in general, i’m confident that i’ll be able to drop some knowledge while profiting at the same time over the long haul. Sports investing in general is not a sprint, it’s a marathon and so is this meet (7/14-9/5). There will be opportunities but there’s no need to be super aggressive during the first week of the meet. I’ll be providing content every Saturday during the Spa meet and likely will be around on other select days.
SARATOGA RACE COURSE 7/16/22
Race #1: $40k Maiden claimers, certainly not the classiest race of the day however there may be some value here. #1 drops in class for Pletcher, first time for tag, first dirt start with Lasix and adds blinkers. Could win but at short price i’ll look elsewhere. #4 also drops in class from msw to md clm for Pletcher and could win as well but msw Mth and considering how poorly he ran in his debut and fact that he’ll likely attract money i’ll look elsewhere. In a race crying out for a firster to win #6 is a contender for live connections but i see possible value that makes me against the debuting 4 yo that runs today for 40k price tag even though two years ago was quarter million dollar purchase. #3 Fiery Heart 5-1 ML since being claimed three back this will be first start on dry dirt, Beyer speed fig wise best two career races are only two dirt starts compared to his career three turf races, 3 yo second off layoff so i expect another step forward and the fact that Saez stays aboard definitely doesn’t hurt. #7 Mistical Curlin 8-1 ML another 3 yo making second start off layoff that i expect to improve off career top Beyer while adding lasix and now removes blinkers with is a very high percent and profitable angle for trainer Ken McPeek. Looking to use #3,#7 in multi race wagers and likely win bet #7 if he’s longer of the two prices.
Race #2: No strong opinion at all. From a pace perspective seems to be a decent amount of early speed so factoring that with the talent of this field it could lead to a total pace collapse however, #4 Quick Munny 3-1 ML does appear to be the speed of the speeds and had absolutely no chance two races back after not breaking in front as she has in six out of seven career races.
Race #3: Going down the page in order #2 could be live at a price, trainer successful with firsters, there’s some turf breeding in her family and attracts Jose Ortiz. #4 will take money and i’m against in top spot,#11 isn’t a complete throughout and could be a price but post position is a concern same with #12 who breaks even further outside in two turn turf race with not much run into first turn at shorter price than #11. At 15-1 ML i really like #5 Cerretta in here. Lightly raced 3 yo filly has every right to improve here off top Beyer in turf debut that was on yielding turf for trainer that has had great success throughout the years at the Spa and points for this meet, moves up in class msw from mdn clm even in defeat which is a positive and key jockey change as well.
Race #4: Is a race i’m not particular excited about but #2 will be a huge favorite and could win but from a value standpoint i’ll be against and in multirace wagers i’ll take a chance that either #1,4,8 could pull the upset.
Race #5: On paper appears to be a very competitive race and should offer some very decent betting opportunities. No particular order but i’ll be using #1,3,5. #1 Simply 15-1 ML last four races were on dirt at Finger Lakes for trainer that does very good there and i respect when shipping, prior to those four dirt races is a string of turf races that make him a contender at a price. #3 Front Line Dancer 9/2 ML lightly races with upside for Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, never a bad combination. #5 Mr. Kringle 6-1 ML not exactly a win machine 2 for 32 lifetime but 4 career starts Spa turf with a win, second, third (4-1-1-1) for trainer that is successful win percentage as well as profitable when stretching out in distance sprint to route.
Race #6: #3 Chris and Dave 8-1 ML & #4 Double Shot 6-1 ML are both dropping in class and are the two i’m most interested in here.
Race #7: #5 is a likely short priced winner here but 3-5 ML compared to #9 Baby Yoda 9-2 ML i see some possible reasoning that could lead to the upset.
Race #8: Grade 1 The Diana 1 ⅛ Miles Mellon Turf Course - Chad Brown has four of the six runners and I’ll take a chance to beat him with #2 Creative Flair 8-1 ML. I’ll be making a win bet #2 and key #2 top and bottom of exactas with #1,3,4.
Race #9: #9 Fort Ticonderoga 2-1 ML short price and likely favorite but is my top pick and will single in multi race wagers, His 87 Beyer in second career start, first on turf screams future stakes horse.
Race #10; Grade 3 The Sanford 6F 2yo colts. Wide open 2yo stakes and I’ll be spreading in multi race wagers using in no specific order #3,4,6,8,11 . Wide open enough where a huge price could set up for a big multi race hit such as Pick 4.
Race #11: Closing out multi race wagers using #3,4,5,9 and keep eye on if #13 draws into race off also eligible list because i’ll also use.
35+ years of experience, handicapping and wagering on sports and horse racing
P2Play2winTik Tok
play2win.sportsconsultOpening Day at Historic (1863) Saratoga Race Course was on Thursday 7/14 and the meets runs through Labor Day 9/5. Saratoga is a very prestigious track and meet that is not only rich in tradition but it’s literally in my backyard. I live 30 miles from the track and have lived here my entire life and started attending the races right out of diapers, literally. Given my experience with horse racing, but Saratoga meet in general, i’m confident that i’ll be able to drop some knowledge while profiting at the same time over the long haul. Sports investing in general is not a sprint, it’s a marathon and so is this meet (7/14-9/5). There will be opportunities but there’s no need to be super aggressive during the first week of the meet. I’ll be providing content every Saturday during the Spa meet and likely will be around on other select days.
SARATOGA RACE COURSE 7/16/22
Race #1: $40k Maiden claimers, certainly not the classiest race of the day however there may be some value here. #1 drops in class for Pletcher, first time for tag, first dirt start with Lasix and adds blinkers. Could win but at short price i’ll look elsewhere. #4 also drops in class from msw to md clm for Pletcher and could win as well but msw Mth and considering how poorly he ran in his debut and fact that he’ll likely attract money i’ll look elsewhere. In a race crying out for a firster to win #6 is a contender for live connections but i see possible value that makes me against the debuting 4 yo that runs today for 40k price tag even though two years ago was quarter million dollar purchase. #3 Fiery Heart 5-1 ML since being claimed three back this will be first start on dry dirt, Beyer speed fig wise best two career races are only two dirt starts compared to his career three turf races, 3 yo second off layoff so i expect another step forward and the fact that Saez stays aboard definitely doesn’t hurt. #7 Mistical Curlin 8-1 ML another 3 yo making second start off layoff that i expect to improve off career top Beyer while adding lasix and now removes blinkers with is a very high percent and profitable angle for trainer Ken McPeek. Looking to use #3,#7 in multi race wagers and likely win bet #7 if he’s longer of the two prices.
Race #2: No strong opinion at all. From a pace perspective seems to be a decent amount of early speed so factoring that with the talent of this field it could lead to a total pace collapse however, #4 Quick Munny 3-1 ML does appear to be the speed of the speeds and had absolutely no chance two races back after not breaking in front as she has in six out of seven career races.
Race #3: Going down the page in order #2 could be live at a price, trainer successful with firsters, there’s some turf breeding in her family and attracts Jose Ortiz. #4 will take money and i’m against in top spot,#11 isn’t a complete throughout and could be a price but post position is a concern same with #12 who breaks even further outside in two turn turf race with not much run into first turn at shorter price than #11. At 15-1 ML i really like #5 Cerretta in here. Lightly raced 3 yo filly has every right to improve here off top Beyer in turf debut that was on yielding turf for trainer that has had great success throughout the years at the Spa and points for this meet, moves up in class msw from mdn clm even in defeat which is a positive and key jockey change as well.
Race #4: Is a race i’m not particular excited about but #2 will be a huge favorite and could win but from a value standpoint i’ll be against and in multirace wagers i’ll take a chance that either #1,4,8 could pull the upset.
Race #5: On paper appears to be a very competitive race and should offer some very decent betting opportunities. No particular order but i’ll be using #1,3,5. #1 Simply 15-1 ML last four races were on dirt at Finger Lakes for trainer that does very good there and i respect when shipping, prior to those four dirt races is a string of turf races that make him a contender at a price. #3 Front Line Dancer 9/2 ML lightly races with upside for Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, never a bad combination. #5 Mr. Kringle 6-1 ML not exactly a win machine 2 for 32 lifetime but 4 career starts Spa turf with a win, second, third (4-1-1-1) for trainer that is successful win percentage as well as profitable when stretching out in distance sprint to route.
Race #6: #3 Chris and Dave 8-1 ML & #4 Double Shot 6-1 ML are both dropping in class and are the two i’m most interested in here.
Race #7: #5 is a likely short priced winner here but 3-5 ML compared to #9 Baby Yoda 9-2 ML i see some possible reasoning that could lead to the upset.
Race #8: Grade 1 The Diana 1 ⅛ Miles Mellon Turf Course - Chad Brown has four of the six runners and I’ll take a chance to beat him with #2 Creative Flair 8-1 ML. I’ll be making a win bet #2 and key #2 top and bottom of exactas with #1,3,4.
Race #9: #9 Fort Ticonderoga 2-1 ML short price and likely favorite but is my top pick and will single in multi race wagers, His 87 Beyer in second career start, first on turf screams future stakes horse.
Race #10; Grade 3 The Sanford 6F 2yo colts. Wide open 2yo stakes and I’ll be spreading in multi race wagers using in no specific order #3,4,6,8,11 . Wide open enough where a huge price could set up for a big multi race hit such as Pick 4.
Race #11: Closing out multi race wagers using #3,4,5,9 and keep eye on if #13 draws into race off also eligible list because i’ll also use.
