Overnight Discussion

Houghton Chemical

Pretty much a regular
Once again, this thread is for anyone who wants to round out their cards hours before kickoff. I thought we had a nice go round last week, so I wanted to see if anyone was interested again tonight.

So far, I made 0 bets. Not a lot I like out there. However, I am eyeing Georgia, Penn State and Alabama. I can see all three running away with the game, doubling up the # on their opponent.
 
not sure bama is the kind of team to lay dd in a true road game with. Think they have won by dd just once on the road the last two years ( not counting neutral field )
 
Out of the three, that is the one that am most concerned about. Alabama seems like they're really coming into their own this season and it's a rebuilding year for Arkansas. Tide outmatches Hogs at every position this year. But I do hesitate laying more than seven on the road in the SEC.
 
Out of the three, that is the one that am most concerned about. Alabama seems like they're really coming into their own this season and it's a rebuilding year for Arkansas. Tide outmatches Hogs at every position this year. But I do hesitate laying more than seven on the road in the SEC.


yup .. arkansas is one of those teams that should get better every week. Bama is certainly capable of blowing them out .. hell they blew out clemson....course the line has dropped to more reasonable levels than the dd it was at earlier in the week too ....
 
Yeah, looking at the match up, I think even at home, testing out that new offense is going to be hard going up against one of the top 15-20 defenses in the country.

Then you look at all the yards Arkansas gave up to Western Illinois and Monroe, especially through the air, and you have to ask yourself how are they going to compete? I see this as a 13 or more margin for Alabama.
 
agree to disagree .. i almost played arkansas but it got bet down. no interest now ... so cheering for bama lol.
 
Interesting VK, what did you see in Arkansas? I do think they're getting better each week, but Dick is still a question mark as a leader. This is his first test against a real defense, don't you think?
 
series history points to a close game. I think arkansas can use backs out of the backfield and the tight ends to get first downs and shorten the game up. Most likely this is the game petrino has been pointing to most of the offseason. I actually thinks it hurts arkansas a little to have not lost to texas last week as this team needs as many snaps as possible but they should be rested and hungry. 72000 home fans vs young bama team first true road game. I think defensive line can do a good job stopping or slowing down the bama rush game. if john parker wilson lights them up then its over.
 
I don't know about demolish, but I think Pitt is the right side. IF Iowa is for real, they will cruise through this one. But there could be a major letdown after the dogfight against ISU. You couldn't tell by the score, but it was a hard fought game. Iowa just had more of those sustained drives. Pitt had a week to prepare for this one, and while, I don't see a real coaching edge here, Pitt does get up for these types of games. Key to the game is the LOS. Iowa has impressed on the ground and Pitt run D is good. I like that Christensen is the starter here. He has experience, but is still a very shaky QB. I lean Pitt, but not enough to play.
 
Well looking at the Noon starts (played a bunch of others such as Ole Miss , Marshall , Tulsa , ASU , Iowa State and Zona earlier in the week , as well as Wyoming , Buffalo and some totals that I recall )

Right now the noon games that stand out to me are Minnesota / Over , NcState , and Temple .

The Minnesota game mostly because just tough to believe FAU can beat them two years in arow. I know thats a terrible reason but think FAU offense is gonna have its hand full and while FAU can obviously toss the ball and Minnys pass defense is weak just think being so one dimensonal will hurt them . Probably be close to the spread but still think Minny takes it by a TD+...Last year game wasnt a true 3 pt game but Weber had 4 picks and Smith 0 . The obvious difference in the game and home field just makes a huge difference for mid majors in college. Teams arent that different and the spread is the same except Minny is home....Minny had 7 turnovers last year and the crucial 2nd Q when they wer eoutscored 21-0 in a tie game there were 2 scores after turnovers for FAU...

Then NCState catching a TD at home. There defense has played well and keep the games respectable at SC and Clemson. Now that defense is on its home field and there isnt much that has impressed about ECU. They were handed a win by a sloppy and offensively challenged VaTech , I think the COL game says all you need to about the current state of WVU and Tulane gave them one helluva a game IMO. ECU could not run the ball @ Tulane , they first scored on a blocked FG , they had a 51yd TD pass and scored inside the final 2 minutes to win the game trailing by 3. Only 3 of 10 on 3rd down and total yards were the same ...simply put pts should be at a premium here making the dog valuable catching a TD at home IMO...no reason why NCST cant win this game of they make a couple of plays on offense like Tulane was able to .

Temple - Lik ethe points because Penn State hasnt been tested at all. The bets team they played was Oregon State who was only flying across the country after a tough opening loss on the road to play what as 12:30 game there time and were down 35-7 at half.....dont think Penn State scores much but 28+ pts is some value IMO...I just dont think they walk over Temple and if they do it will happen by halftime.....

Also like CMU , Troy and East Mich as possible dog plays ......:shake:
 
I don't know about demolish, but I think Pitt is the right side. IF Iowa is for real, they will cruise through this one. But there could be a major letdown after the dogfight against ISU. You couldn't tell by the score, but it was a hard fought game. Iowa just had more of those sustained drives. Pitt had a week to prepare for this one, and while, I don't see a real coaching edge here, Pitt does get up for these types of games. Key to the game is the LOS. Iowa has impressed on the ground and Pitt run D is good. I like that Christensen is the starter here. He has experience, but is still a very shaky QB. I lean Pitt, but not enough to play.

Alright not demolish. But they are gonna win. Unless Wannstedt tell Stull to kneel on 3rd down so that we can get a better angle at the feild goal kick (Walt Harris move).

Im gonna cry if Pitt loses this game, cry.
 
Good point about the 1H PSU line SN. We really will see how this game develops by then. The thing about Temple is that they're a team on the verge. Those two losses are demoralizing to ANY team. But they've gotta be rough on such a dogged team like Temple. Losing has been a tradition at that school and mentally, to have to live through those last two games, I don't know if it's something they can bounce back from. And Penn State is not a team you want to bounce back against. The only concern I have here is with the lookahead factor for PSU, just another reason to play the 1H.
 
Biggest issue I have with State is how in the heck are they gonna put enough points on the board to stay within the number? They always seem to play the Pirates tough, regardless of the talent disparity, but with all the injuries, ECU has a chance to really make a statement in this one, as they could blow it wide open as long as they don't commit silly mistakes and give State a short field to work with. With all that said, I am laying off, b/c I am not a big fan of laying pts in these types of rivalry angles, especially involving solid coaches like O Brien.
 
Added Idaho at 5.5 tonight, line is now down to 5. Any other under the radar games you guys are looking at? Thought about ULM but decided against it b/c the line never got over 7 like I had hoped. Think FAU is in a nice spot and has a chance to win SU, but gonna lay off and probably kick myself later for it.
 
SN, agree completely with the NC State analysis. That defense has been strong all year, but I am a believer in East Carolina. That's why I'm laying off. But if there was any week for a ECU SU loss, this would be it.

I'm staying far away from FAU, because they torched Minnesota through the air last year. They did whatever they wanted against them, and I don't think the Gophers have improved at all in the secondary.
 
Toledo was another that almost made the cut for me, but I scratched them off the list tonight, as I honestly don't know how Fresno will respond this week on the road after that battle last weekend. Obviously they are the better team, but Toledo takes care of business at home, so 7 would be nice to have in the back pocket, but man, Fresno could come out on a mission and Toledo could be down 14 before even realizing what hit em. Try to stay away from these uncertain emotion type angles, so again another one that was close but didn't make the cut.
 
Good point about the 1H PSU line SN. We really will see how this game develops by then. The thing about Temple is that they're a team on the verge. Those two losses are demoralizing to ANY team. But they've gotta be rough on such a dogged team like Temple. Losing has been a tradition at that school and mentally, to have to live through those last two games, I don't know if it's something they can bounce back from. And Penn State is not a team you want to bounce back against. The only concern I have here is with the lookahead factor for PSU, just another reason to play the 1H.

Thats the thing if one likes Penn State then there probably better off just going 1st H because we are gonna find out early where Temple's head is at . The only reason I am not that worried about Temple's morale is because its Temple to be frank. These kids are a second tier "major" . There always backed against the wall and always facing someone who has more . What better chance to stick it to someone then playing "big brother " Penn State ? When I played I baseball in college I was a second tier 1 school so when we got to the big boys we usually showed well . We beat Seton Hall for the time in 40 something years when I was there and just remember a bunch of times we played superior programs . I know we pissed FAU off one year because they were ranked in th etop 30 the previous season and I was pitching against them and it was 4-3 in the 7th and the coach tore into them. I know the story because knew one of the kids on the team . Anyway just being that Temple has some talent thinking they can compete here and thats something no one has done yet vs Penn State ....Just a strong lean but looking to see what this team does ...also Temple has been shutout past 2 years vs Penn State so would hope that adds some motivation but really who knows . I am playing a guessing game and I know it ..I pretty confident if Temple gets 21 but not sure they can do better then 14-17...for me I would be jsut as interested in Temple 1st H because they need to show up and dont think they will be interested in a backdoor.:cheers:

 
My Play of the week would be if I did such things , NC State. ECU getting too much hype for beating 2 overhyped teams. Slowly but surely both teams have proved it. NC State might win this game IMO. I think the spread is also affected by how weak people consider the ACC to be. ECU is a pretender.,..just my .02

Cant give you a solid writeup because of me just being able to only start looking at shit Thursday night because of the blackout in Western PA.

About Pitt in all seriousness, its just a gut play for me. I just cant see them losing. I couldnt see them losing to BG either...but yeah I dont know. For some reason or another I see this game going over too...27-24 type score. Pitt's defense isnt as good as they were hyped up to be this year. If Dave the idiot realizes we could have one of the greatest running game in the country if he ran the ball more then 22 times a game...then they win this game easily. Sorry to say, but Dave the idiot wont realize it. More likely that youll see a lot of conservative 5 yard slants and running on 3rd and long in the hope that the defense slips up. Therefore, we wont win this game easily, we wont win any game easily. If Pitt is catching anymore then a TD in any game this year id take the other team.
 
It seems like Temple's running game has regressed vs a year ago, so if they don't establish anything early, it could get ugly if they have to go one dimensional against the PSU defense. I think PSU shuts down the run and forces Temple into some mistakes in the passing game as them having to throw 40+ times is a recipe for disaster in my book. The 1Q to me will tell the whole story, as if Temple puts together a few first downs, it might be interesting from a spread standpoint, but if they are held to 3 and outs the first couple drives, then I might be able to actually sit back and enjoy the ride since I have PSU in this one.
 
Obviously in a game like this, with what you posted SN,it really falls on the shoulders of the coach. Does the team believe in Golden?
 
Biggest issue I have with State is how in the heck are they gonna put enough points on the board to stay within the number? They always seem to play the Pirates tough, regardless of the talent disparity, but with all the injuries, ECU has a chance to really make a statement in this one, as they could blow it wide open as long as they don't commit silly mistakes and give State a short field to work with. With all that said, I am laying off, b/c I am not a big fan of laying pts in these types of rivalry angles, especially involving solid coaches like O Brien.

I agree . I dont know how they score but I also feel confident they cover just breaking 10 points . Whats ECU gonna score ? 17 maybe ?

I just think the exp playing @ SC and @ Clemson shows here . They can force ECU in a turnover or two .....I guess I am just not impressed with ECU as they are very close to being 1-2 if two teams finished better ...also even Evans was able to have a field day vs ECU defense last year ...so maybe the coaches have a way to exploit ECU...or so I hope.....I was all over Tulane last week and see NCST as a similair team (offensively challenged and defensively solid).....just think the numbert should be closer to a FG
 
Also I love LSU, someone convince me how Auburn scores enough to beat LSU

I see a 13-6 type game.
 
Added Idaho at 5.5 tonight, line is now down to 5. Any other under the radar games you guys are looking at? Thought about ULM but decided against it b/c the line never got over 7 like I had hoped. Think FAU is in a nice spot and has a chance to win SU, but gonna lay off and probably kick myself later for it.

I am gonna Idaho as well even though it dropped and probably will be on Monroe as well . Just lines as see as off slightily ...

I think FAU either wins SU or Minny covers ...
 
Yeah, I don't think ECU will blow this one out by scoring 40+ or anything, but I just see State getting FG's or maybe a "lucky gimmick" TD off a trick play or something. Honestly would be surprised if they get more than 9 or 10, so my thinking is ECU will get 17-20 or so. I see this as something like a 17-9 game or 20-13 type game which is right around the 7 that is out there now. Not enough value for me to take ECU as I wouldn't be shocked or anything if they lost, but there will be plenty of ECU fans making the trip from Greenville, so definitely not gonna be a red/white exclusive party in Raleigh for this one at all. Should be interesting to watch.
 
It seems like Temple's running game has regressed vs a year ago, so if they don't establish anything early, it could get ugly if they have to go one dimensional against the PSU defense. I think PSU shuts down the run and forces Temple into some mistakes in the passing game as them having to throw 40+ times is a recipe for disaster in my book. The 1Q to me will tell the whole story, as if Temple puts together a few first downs, it might be interesting from a spread standpoint, but if they are held to 3 and outs the first couple drives, then I might be able to actually sit back and enjoy the ride since I have PSU in this one.

:shake:

I did notice the 1st H line wasnt heavily shaded which is probably a negative factor for PSU. As they could certainly get away with more then -15.5 on a 29 spread ..
 
I am gonna Idaho as well even though it dropped and probably will be on Monroe as well . Just lines as see as off slightily ...

I think FAU either wins SU or Minny covers ...

Have to admit I was surprised USU was a 5 pt fav as I was expecting closer to PK or maybe 3 at the most, even though there is no HFA for those guys these days as the fans are revolting fast up there.

As far as FAU goes, I think a lot of people have soured on em b/c of the first few weeks, but they have had a number of bad breaks that made the scores look a lot worse than the games were IMO. Definitely don't think Minny deserves to be a TD fav yet, especially against a team that can actually air it out like Rusty and co. can do. Wouldn't be surprised to see FAU win SU, something like 31-28 or 35-31, but definitely a toss up either way.
 
Well looking at the Noon starts (played a bunch of others such as Ole Miss , Marshall , Tulsa , ASU , Iowa State and Zona earlier in the week , as well as Wyoming , Buffalo and some totals that I recall )

Right now the noon games that stand out to me are Minnesota / Over , NcState , and Temple .

The Minnesota game mostly because just tough to believe FAU can beat them two years in arow. I know thats a terrible reason but think FAU offense is gonna have its hand full and while FAU can obviously toss the ball and Minnys pass defense is weak just think being so one dimensonal will hurt them . Probably be close to the spread but still think Minny takes it by a TD+...Last year game wasnt a true 3 pt game but Weber had 4 picks and Smith 0 . The obvious difference in the game and home field just makes a huge difference for mid majors in college. Teams arent that different and the spread is the same except Minny is home....Minny had 7 turnovers last year and the crucial 2nd Q when they wer eoutscored 21-0 in a tie game there were 2 scores after turnovers for FAU...

Then NCState catching a TD at home. There defense has played well and keep the games respectable at SC and Clemson. Now that defense is on its home field and there isnt much that has impressed about ECU. They were handed a win by a sloppy and offensively challenged VaTech , I think the COL game says all you need to about the current state of WVU and Tulane gave them one helluva a game IMO. ECU could not run the ball @ Tulane , they first scored on a blocked FG , they had a 51yd TD pass and scored inside the final 2 minutes to win the game trailing by 3. Only 3 of 10 on 3rd down and total yards were the same ...simply put pts should be at a premium here making the dog valuable catching a TD at home IMO...no reason why NCST cant win this game of they make a couple of plays on offense like Tulane was able to .

Temple - Lik ethe points because Penn State hasnt been tested at all. The bets team they played was Oregon State who was only flying across the country after a tough opening loss on the road to play what as 12:30 game there time and were down 35-7 at half.....dont think Penn State scores much but 28+ pts is some value IMO...I just dont think they walk over Temple and if they do it will happen by halftime.....

Also like CMU , Troy and East Mich as possible dog plays ......:shake:

Sportsnut I agree somewhat with you on Minny. Everyway I can cap a game I did. The reason is because Minny seems to me like the pub play.I locked it in a few minutes ago.Minny takes this one by 2 TD's. Thats the lowest I could get them winning by.I may be wrong but I like this play a lot.

Here is where I disagree.You like the over. I locked in the under. The highes total I came up with was 59. Honestly I don't see it getting over 51.My opinion but thats what I get.

GL to you buddy.
 
Good Luck fellas . Gonna get some sleep and start on this early in the morning . See how the weather shakes out in some places and how the lines bounce around ...really no great insight for me ...the one lay I really like was Ole Miss and have it at like -5.5 or 6 and its 7 now so not sure how much difference that makes ...
 
I notice that most are on OSU but I got Troy earlier in the week at 21.5 as they are a solid ball club and Hampton could create some broken play opportunities against the Buckeyes in this one. I don't expect the Trojans to walk into Columbus and pull the upset, but they aren't gonna roll over in this one either, as they are solid on both sides of the ball, and should be good for a couple scores to help with the cover.
 
Sportsnut I agree somewhat with you on Minny. Everyway I can cap a game I did. The reason is because Minny seems to me like the pub play.I locked it in a few minutes ago.Minny takes this one by 2 TD's. Thats the lowest I could get them winning by.I may be wrong but I like this play a lot.

Here is where I disagree.You like the over. I locked in the under. The highes total I came up with was 59. Honestly I don't see it getting over 51.My opinion but thats what I get.

GL to you buddy.

I always wait to see how totals move before I lock them in so maybe your insight keeps me off it . Think the only total I played was UND Utah /AF so far ...I really didnt even think about an expected score at Minny to be honest ..to tired from sucking at bases especiall totals ( blew 2 reverses going Baylor Under twice in CFB as well)
 
Anyone else have any other games on their mind? Looking at Oregon right now. Thinking we're catching them at a good #. Injured QB, near upset at Purdue, back home.

I'm thinking we see a solid defensive effort from the Ducks this week. The defense we know came to life during the 2H of last week's game but should be there all game back at home against Boise. I didn't watch any of that game, but it didn't look like the Broncos put up many points against Bowling Green. It'll be a tough environment for a Freshman QB making his first true road start.
 
lookin at these for the 9:00 games

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Hey Throw. I locked Penn State earlier this morning. I'm actually researching the Alabama game right now. The Iowa game has me stumped. I lean Pitt though. Don't know about CMU, but would definitely lean NC State. I believe ECU is a strong team, but they're going to get mixed up in some close battles this year and this is one I could see them losing SU. Take a look above on some of the thoughts shared by SN and CB for better insight. GL this weekend bro.
 
About to head to bed, but I think I'm going to lay off on Alabama. Parker Wilson has historically gone off on Arkansas, yet they've always managed to play it close. This year Arkansas breaks in a new offense, while Alabama appears to be running smoothly for the first time in a long time. The thing that has me hesitating is that Alabama is a 9 pt. road fav. If Alabama is a true SEC contender, they'll cover this by 14 easy. However, the fact is this game will be a true measure for both teams. We'll learn how good Alabama is and how much Arkansas needs to improve. From what I've been reading, Saban and his team knows the importance of this game. Since Arkansas joined the SEC in 1992, Alabama goes 82-26-1 in years they WIN this game. They go 37-45-4 when the LOSE. Also, in the L5, Arkansas is 4-1 SU when playing Alabama at home. This last stat could be thrown out, since Alabama sure looks stronger than they have in the L5 years, but still something to consider.
 
Good Luck Houghton and CB . Thanks for the help yesterday .

Another early one I am tossing and turning on is Purdue and CMU . CMU has not played that well and playing 3 rd straight away . I wonder how Purdue responds after last week blowing the Oregon game but also does Purdue want some "payback" in the sense they are upset CMU played them so well in a bowl game ? You get the point I am trying to make with that ? As in Purdue being motivated to seperate themselves from last years Bowl Game vs a mid major ?

Purdue held Roper to 20-48 2 Ints and 197 yds where as Painter aslso played poorly but clearly in a good spot to bounce back . Kory Sheets ran well . CMU has to get some consistency from the ground game especially Sneed . Which is what hurt Purdue vs Oregon. If that isnt a threat is LeFevour able to do it all by himself in a true road game ?? I mean Painter had 546 yds last year vs CMU on a neutral field now home and tru road game for them...

Purdue had 34-13 and 41-20 leads at half and shortly after halftime.

Does the 3rd straight TOUGH road game wear on them in the 2nd H ??

Pretty much will play Purdue TT over ... undecided .?:cheers:
 
any1 got some thoughts on these 12:30 games this is what Im lookin at ?


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