Over/Under Valued

[rambler882]

I tend to track who is over or under valued week to week and this heavily influences my plays. It worked well for me in week 2. While I basically juiced out the ones I left off the board hit and I was able to nail the first leg on 2 teasers. Anyway, since I don't have the chance to watch as many games figured I'd open this thread each week (or try to) to see who the forum believes is buy vs. sell.

Example here is I'll be buying Michigan against Wisconsin in week 4 as of now.

 

[M.W.]

UNC was undervalued to start the season, and the fact they're a dog at Wake suggests that they still are.

 

[carolinablue]

UNC was undervalued to start the season, and the fact they're a dog at Wake suggests that they still are.

Shhhhh...I like money

 

[TahoeLegend]

Kansas State was undervalued. I posted back at the end of last season I thought K State made the best coaching hire of anyone and I still believe it. Klieman's K State team looks just like his Bison teams--tough, aggressive, hard hitting, relentless.

 

[rambler882]

UNC was undervalued to start the season, and the fact they're a dog at Wake suggests that they still are.

Im actually in the other camp and will be playing Wake. UNC hype train is high and think the 4th Q comebacks are over valuing them. If they were 0-2 what is the line?

 

[M.W.]

Im actually in the other camp and will be playing Wake. UNC hype train is high and think the 4th Q comebacks are over valuing them. If they were 0-2 what is the line?

I don't know, but the teams were pretty even last year, and with Howell and the new staff coming in I would certainly have taken UNC +3 if they had opened at Wake.

 

[s--k]

I printed off some GOY lines from this summer and Wake Forest was -3 vs UNC. So that shows essentially no change to what this line was at 3.5-2.5 open-current.

I do think that WF's passing game and Newman have looked pretty good and can see them having success there. But we know they easily could've lost the opener to Utah State.

When trying to evaluate UNC there can be two sides - one thinks how can they be up for 3 straight games after the 2 huge ones where they had to come from behind in both in the 4th...and then the other might think that the enthusiasm and momentum carries over for a team having success that didn't have much the last 2 years.

I tend to be more in the later that thinks winning the 2 weeks only helps them..

Really won't be surprised at any outcome of this game. The teams are actually really even, which the line reflects.

 

[M.W.]

Im actually in the other camp and will be playing Wake. UNC hype train is high and think the 4th Q comebacks are over valuing them. If they were 0-2 what is the line?

I see in CK's thread that he got Wake on a GOY line at -2.5. Now, after UNC's 2-0 start, Wake is -3.5.

 

[booksbestfriend]

I printed off some GOY lines from this summer and Wake Forest was -3 vs UNC. So that shows essentially no change to what this line was at 3.5-2.5 open-current.

I do think that WF's passing game and Newman have looked pretty good and can see them having success there. But we know they easily could've lost the opener to Utah State.

When trying to evaluate UNC there can be two sides - one thinks how can they be up for 3 straight games after the 2 huge ones where they had to come from behind in both in the 4th...and then the other might think that the enthusiasm and momentum carries over for a team having success that didn't have much the last 2 years.

I tend to be more in the later that thinks winning the 2 weeks only helps them..

Really won't be surprised at any outcome of this game. The teams are actually really even, which the line reflects.

I dont remember the year, but the Big 12 was just the opposite. OU,UT, Mizzou, OK St, TT, and KU were all top-10 teams. Every week one fell after winning the previous two when b-2b-2b. It occurred later in the year vs 1st two games, but it never failed.

 

[M.O.T]

What about the Terps? I haven’t seen Temple yet, do they have the weapons to keep pace?

 

[carolinablue]

I see in CK's thread that he got Wake on a GOY line at -2.5. Now, after UNC's 2-0 start, Wake is -3.5.

The two injuries this week may have played into the line a bit.

 

[D-Woww]

What about the Terps? I haven’t seen Temple yet, do they have the weapons to keep pace?

very interested to hear somebody with knowledge of Temple chime in. It is as good of a "fade Maryland" spot as there can be, but I do want to confirm if Temple is a team that can play with them

 

[Two Utes]

Temple is usually decent in the trenches but I haven't seen one second of Temple football this year.

 

[s--k]

Temple beat Maryland last year 35-14 as 15.5 pt dog.

I'm with everyone else, I have no 2019 knowledge on Temple. But if Maryland might've been partying a little too much or a little too full of themselves, I would think the fact they play a team this week that beat them by 3 TDs last year should have their attention.

 

[booksbestfriend]

Temple beat Maryland last year 35-14 as 15.5 pt dog.

I'm with everyone else, I have no 2019 knowledge on Temple. But if Maryland might've been partying a little too much or a little too full of themselves, I would think the fact they play a team this week that beat them by 3 TDs last year should have their attention.

Maryland was down to like the 12th string QB by the 3rd game. Terps were falling like flies from preseason on.

 

[s--k]

I dont remember the year, but the Big 12 was just the opposite. OU,UT, Mizzou, OK St, TT, and KU were all top-10 teams. Every week one fell after winning the previous two when b-2b-2b. It occurred later in the year vs 1st two games, but it never failed.

Saying a team can't (or isn't likely) to pull 3 upsets in a row is along the same line of thinking that a team isn't likely to beat 3 ranked teams in a row, or are at a disadvantage if they have to play 3 away games in a row...or 3 emotional or physically draining games or whatever.

All fair points.

I looked back at last season, and finding a team off back-to-back upsets and then is still dogged in the next game was quite rare. In fact it only happened once last year...Bowling Green +7 at CMich, +6.5 at Akron and then +14.5 at Buffalo (loss).

Not sure that is apples-to-apples because Buffalo was quite good...and well BG beating CM and Akron, those teams weren't good at all. I suppose if we were going to compare 2018 BG and where Buffalo was in the MAC last year, it would be like if 2019 UNC was taking on Clemson this week.

You just never know, is a team going to be running low on gas after 2 games like UNC had, or is it a springboard? Eventually, a team that had low expectations is going to stop exceeding expectations. But it isn't like UNC was devoid of talent the last 2 seasons. Nobody could have guessed that the new staff would put it together so quick, but they did have some pieces to work with and the emergence of a QB is the most critical of all things.

So who knows? Howell is very young. It probably all comes down to him and if he can keep playing well and coming through in the clutch.

 

[s--k]

Maryland was down to like the 12th string QB by the 3rd game. Terps were falling like flies from preseason on.

Haha, remember they had a LB at QB the one game?

That was actually 2017 or earlier though. Kasim Hill started vs Texas, BG and Temple last season. He started the first 10 before injury last year.

Maryland went 3-and-out on 4 of their first 5 drives and Temple led 14-0. Hill was just 7-17-56-0-1 passing.

 

[M.W.]

I looked back at last season, and finding a team off back-to-back upsets and then is still dogged in the next game was quite rare. In fact it only happened once last year...Bowling Green +7 at CMich, +6.5 at Akron and then +14.5 at Buffalo (loss).

Not sure that is apples-to-apples because Buffalo was quite good...and well BG beating CM and Akron, those teams weren't good at all. I suppose if we were going to compare 2018 BG and where Buffalo was in the MAC last year, it would be like if 2019 UNC was taking on Clemson this week.

You just never know, is a team going to be running low on gas after 2 games like UNC had, or is it a springboard?

Road dogs off an upset win (any venue) followed by an upset win at home are 75-71 ATS. In game 3, they are 4-1, with only one instance in the last 15 years (BYU losing 23-24 as +16.5 at UCLA in 2015).

 

[M.W.]

The two injuries this week may have played into the line a bit.

Thanks for the heads-up. Perhaps more important than the value in handicapping the game is the fact that I learned that UNC has a corner named Storm Duck.

 

[dopples]

washington overvalued
cincy overvalued
virginia tech overvalued
ucla overvalued

tcu undervalued
boston college undervalued
louisville undervalued

 

[rambler882]

Houston and FSU are the other 2 im locking in on from a value standpoint. FSU may be too hard to back though. Is there any inj news on houston?

 

[D-Woww]

washington overvalued
cincy overvalued
virginia tech overvalued
ucla overvalued

tcu undervalued
boston college undervalued
louisville undervalued

UCLA overvalued? After Saturday I don't think so. I admit I was a sucker for them coming off the Cincy loss but damn, that program is a mess

 

[rambler882]

UCLA overvalued? After Saturday I don't think so. I admit I was a sucker for them coming off the Cincy loss but damn, that program is a mess

I think those teams were overvalued prior to wk2 and is a good example for what attempting to identify here

 

[TahoeLegend]

Cal is always one of the most unknown teams in football so may be the most underrated this year. They have one of the best defenses in the country and most guys who look at defense first rate their D-backs the best in the country. The LBs are the best in the Pac-12 and Weaver may be the best LB in the country. Wilcox is a defensive guy and he has his D playing lights out. They hit hard every down.

The problem is, Wilcox is a Buddy Ryan clone who lets the D beat up the offense in practice. He has run off some offensive talent and it appears his only interest in the offense is that they don't put the D in a bad situation, so they are unpredictable ATS. But with that D they can beat anyone.

 

[dopples]

i hate chip kelly and like his pudgy ass to fail he tried to mess up my eagles

 

[M.W.]

i hate chip kelly and like his pudgy ass to fail he tried to mess up my eagles

It wasn't personal, but I certainly understand your perspective. I believe he's going to mess up whatever team he coaches from now on. We got some info on the Kelly/Eagles experience on this site back in June or July, I believe.

I made a lot a of money betting on Rocky Long last week.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff