Outback Bowl: South Carolina vs Michigan

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Since we have a lot of information about both teams readily available on the forum I decided that we could isolate the game into its own thread and get some great discussion and hopefully some winning angles.

We'll have a BIG 10 Bowl Thread up soon enough as well for you to check out...

Also, ksimp has his usual thread up and going (one of the best ones going all season on the site)...

Please stay on subject in this thread about the game in hand. I will be keeping it cleaned up in what ever manner I need to.

Current line as of this morning is 8.5/43 with a +275 ML comeback on the dog.

Okay, lets generate 4 weeks of real good discussion...

Gooooo....
 
Real early Michigan Notes:

-Peters is healthy and named as #1 Quarterback. This should be no surprise but obviously is huge for any game right now.

-Speight will not play. He is graduate transfer and gone after this semester.

-Staying on QB's... the game plan will be interesting since they have very little depth for this game should B.P. go down with injury. Obviously we know what sits behind him right now and that is a deer in headlights.

-The 'Jake Butt' rule could come into effect for Maurice Hurst. He is obviously a Day 1 draft pick and one of the very best in the country. This is just speculation on my part but he shouldn't play. I obviously hope he does but cannot be mad if he doesn't.

-Tarik Black will most likely sit out. If he plays that burns his medical redshirt. No reason for him to play here even though he is most likely healthy enough.

More to come...
 
Rumors still flying about Roper's future as SC OC but Boom said he will be the OC for the bowl game. If he does retain his job before the bowl game takes place then I would assume he is coaching for his job after the poor showing against Clemson at home.

Muschamp spoke about the motivation for the team in a press conference but this would be only the 7th SC team in school history with 9 wins if they were to win the game.

I am checking on Player status' for this game.
 
ANN ARBOR -- Jim Harbaugh expects some frank discussion to be had over the next couple of weeks.

The Michigan football coach said Sunday on the Outback Bowl teleconference he hasn't heard from any players wishing to sit out the Jan. 1 game, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.

"I haven't had those conversations yet," Harbaugh said. "But we will, I'm sure.

"I ask that if there is a player on our team that has that perspective, it doesn't have to be secretive. It doesn't have to come from the dark shadows."

College football players choosing to sit out post-season bowl games has become more common in recent years, especially among those projected to go early in the NFL draft.

Jabrill Peppers, a 2017 first-round pick of the Cleveland Browns, opted not to play in the 2016 Orange Bowl after suffering a hamstring injury during practice in the days leading up to the game.

And Michigan could be in the same boat this year with Maurice Hurst and Mason Cole, two players projected to be selected in the first three rounds. ESPN's Mel Kiper has Hurst sitting at No. 23 on his latest board.

Will they risk the potential for injury and losing out on a potentially big windfall?

"Come in, we'll talk about it," Harbaugh said. "We'll be able to figure it out. And I'll be supportive in the conversation and the discussions about it. None of those have taken place yet, though."
 
seems like sc is just so limited with their skill guys that it will be hard for them to get to 17.
 
As Winovich decides NFL fate...(leaning on returning) he did say this...


Winovich said his focus now is winning the bowl game.

“I’m playing regardless,” he said. “You’ll need an army to keep me from that game.”
 
The question I had about SC players was Hayden Hurst. I almost feel like he isn't going to play and Jacob August(who also seems to be very solid player) will play in his stead for a lot of it but I am still trying to look into it.
 
@_ZachShaw

A wild stat from this: Only five power-5 teams had worse pass-blocking efficiency than Michigan (78.1 percent of snaps without a QB pressure).

Those five teams (Baylor, Illinois, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech) went a combined 17-42 this fall.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Where Michigan's linemen ranked among qualified linemen in pass-blocking efficiency:
Mason Cole: 53.4th percentile
Ben Bredeson: 10.8th
Patrick Kugler: 17.5th
Michael Onwenu: 14.9th
Juwann Bushell-Beatty: 9.7th
 
Alright BAR let's dig into this thing a little bit. Sorry I have been less than involved this post season compared to the reg season but life and holidays hit. I ended up missing whole days of games with UAB and some others but I am fine with that as they probably would have been losers. On the mobile until tomorrow but wanted to contribute something to this game thoughts before we are scrounging on game day.

Upon the drop of line opener I took the 8.5 because I thought it would obviously fall from that point, and the homer inside me thought we have legit chance to be in this game/win it. I have since come down to earth about that and am currently leaning towards the -7 on the buy. The total is a bit baffling to me for which is the right side but I'll get into that more.

I liked that stat above about the QB pressure that Mich has had this year, or lack there of. This could be a benefit to SC but also this likely means that Mich will not crowd the line, knowing they can stop the run regardless, and will sit some guys in coverage. As VK pointed out the SC O is predicated on the run game actually being effective which has been spotty at best. Honestly the biggest issue with the SC run game this year has been personnel choices. Early in the season TySon Williams was breaking out and showing #1 numbers and then he didn't get a snap for two games. Dowdle went down and AJ Turner was the best back by far heading down the stretch and he barely got the ball in the Clemson game. With McClendon calling the shots in the bowl game I am a little hesitant to say what I expect and I would think that being more aggressive would be a given but we all know that necessarily isn't true.

Gamecocks let their emotions get the better of them in the Clemson game, on top of being outmatched on nearly every side of the ball. SC is once again outmatched but not across the board. SC special teams may be slightly better though both teams have had some issues in the kicking game. Not sure of the details with the Michigan kicker but SC guy isn't that bad on the stuff in his range but anything 40+ is nearly impossible for him. SC O is slightly better on paper but with the QB change away from the Apple Turnover Chef they feel like a wash. Michigan D is better than SC and probably will be the key match up. If SC can successfully move the ball in the first half then I think it will be somewhat of a dog fight. If SC gets stopped up like they did against Clemson and can't get past mid field on the first 3-4 possessions then it will likely play out similar to the Clemson game.

SC has struggled this year, not only when unable to run the ball, but against superior athletic teams. Clemson, Tennessee, Kentucky, ATM, uga were all tough games. If Deebo had been in all year I do think things go slightly different in terms of the offensive prowess. There has been a calling for a faster paced offense at SC and Boom has said openly he wants to score as quickly as possible and run as many plays as possible moving forward. So maybe his defensive mindset has let up, or he realizes a big change is necessary from what we have been doing the last two years. This makes me think they will throw caution to the wind and call a more aggressive game. If this does play out I feel like the O43 ends up being attractive, but that is a lot of ifs to put your money down on. I could see a 28-17 type game pretty easily.

Once I get to the rig I will have some more stats to call on and give some more thoughts but wanted to at least get the ball rolling on some more detailed discussion.
 
Outstanding. I also will get more thoughts up here starting tomorrow night. Thanks for getting the ball rolling again.
 
Nick Baumgardner

✔@nickbaumgardner

Neither Ben Bredeson nor Juwann Bushell-Beatty were out there at practice today. Both are here.

2:08 PM - Dec 28, 2017






Nick Baumgardner

✔@nickbaumgardner

Khaleke Hudson’s back to practice today. Brad Hawkins working with LBs

1:57 PM - Dec 28, 2017






Nick Baumgardner

✔@nickbaumgardner

Harbaugh says Devin Bush Sr. is currently in an "extended job interview' as safeties coach at the Outback Bowl

12:50 PM - Dec 28, 2017






1h
Nick Baumgardner

✔@nickbaumgardner
Harbaugh says Devin Bush Sr. is currently in an "extended job interview' as safeties coach at the Outback Bowl

Nick Baumgardner

✔@nickbaumgardner

Bush has been able to be an on-field coach recently after Brian Smith left. Harbaugh and Don Brown like him. So they'll see.

12:50 PM - Dec 28, 2017






View image on Twitter
DSJ4OtbUIAAPCpD.jpg:small

Michigan Football

✔@UMichFootball

The future is now. #GoBlue

2:04 PM - Dec 28, 2017









Isaiah Hole

✔@isaiahhole

Running screen drills with the RBs.

1:51 PM - Dec 28, 2017






Isaiah Hole

✔@isaiahhole

Wide receiver drills.

1:50 PM - Dec 28, 2017

Isaiah Hole

✔@isaiahhole

Harbaugh doesn't rule out dying his hair orange. "For Chad -- maybe."

12:57 PM - Dec 28, 2017




Isaiah Hole

✔@isaiahhole

Harbaugh says Mike Onwenu is "healthy, practicing." Says RG starter is to be determined.

12:46 PM - Dec 28, 2017
 
Damn I love Harbaugh. I am glad SC is playing Michigan just for the simple fact I get to see what this guy is up to for a little while.
 
Time to put my money where my mouth is. All season I have been saying that we can fade SC at the end of the year and I think I am right in that the time has come. As you know, I am a fan- so you non fans can add you opinion to mine. I will be on Michigan and am already laced on them with a few parlays and teasers, but will be on them ATS as well.

Let's look at SC schedule
35-28 W NC St *
31-13 W Mizzou
13-23 L Kentucky
17-16 W LA Tech *
24-17 L TAMU
48-22 W Ark *
15-9 W Tenn *
34-27 W Vandy *
24-10 L UGA
28-20 W UF *
31-10 W Woff
34-10 L Clemson

* games very easily could have lost. I thought that SC was going to be a better team than their projected win total of 6 but there are a number of games that were toss-ups/fluke results/other team had the ball with chance to win the game and did not. SC got manhandled by the superior team against Clemson and the more I think of the game the more I see it playing out that way.

Maybe BAR can elaborate more on the Michigan season as a story but it seems to me the QB woes have muddied that up a good bit. Down the stretch beating Rutg, Minn, MD in fine style before dropping the ball against WIS/OSU seems ripe for harbaugh to come prepared and eviscerate the SC bend don't break defense. SC will need to trim the fat of this team and over the next year or two will grow into a better team but there are players now that are flat in the way. Jamarcus King (CB with dreads D-left side) will probably be getting picked on a good bit of the game because he plays off coverage and always gets picked on- I am sure Harbaugh has a ton of underneath planned for that side of the field because it is basically free.

My estimation of the game was a very grindy fashion with Harbaugh working it out through the course of the game and the Michigan defense holding the SC O in check enough to push them over the edge rather easily. If the Michigan DL plays very well then I see this game playing out almost exactly like the Clemson game minus the awful pity scores. For the first time ever I considered the TD U yards bet for this game as I just did not see it happening aside from a pick 6, ST play, or some broken play.

The only way I saw SC winning this game/covering the number is if Bentley were to have a great game and Michigan is unable to get pressure. From what I saw against Clemson and with time to prepare I just do not believe that would be the case. Bentley has regressed this year a decent bit and that is in part the reason Roper was fired. McClendon will be calling the plays but I have no idea what to expect from him/ is Muschamp going to be more involved? Who knows. Other situation is Michigan has a ton of turnovers and this is a NCSt like game where Mich dominates but loses. I guess I will pay to see SC beat Michigan on a New Years Day bowl.

5u Michigan -7 (b.5)

the play for now and will look at more later.
 
Last edited:
Marsski said:
Michigan or under are my preferred sides, I think...
Click to expand...
Under is another bet worth considering but the problem there is the same problem in the Clemson game.

I could see a few scenarios play out where the over hits. Michigan gaining short fields turning into scores into snowball, or a multiple turnover game, and also if Michigan has any success I am not convinced that the SC D is that good in its current state. We have a handful of good players but the unit as a whole has shown teams can easily gain on them.
 
I took the 8.5 for 1u i believe need to look back again because I thought the line would drop but I thought you were right that -7 on the buy would be the cheapest you would see. Almost think this is further set up to the slam that is to come but what do I know?
 
rambler882 said:
the other 2?
Click to expand...
Some it works out... such as Michigan State and Okie lite yesterday...we'll see on Michigan...


The one I remember all to well was 2006 or 2007 WVU/GT I believe...got the number like -5 off the bat...went to -12...back to -9 I want to say...anyways...even though -5 was a GREAT number...it was a bad bet after injury/suspension season...

They lost outright I believe.
 
You have to be immediately to get the original value. The other stuff should theoretically even out. Meaning you should benefit about as mush as you do not .. although you can sort of predict some of the teams most likely to have issues with suspensions and so on.
 
Lets talk B.P....

Peters looked real good once he got a chance this season. The rumors are that he is having a great December practicing and really stepping his game up with the transfer of Shea in the books. This will be a fun battle next spring and summer, imo.

This I love, and I feel he will have a good game here...

Now, lets look at some other aspects of the QB position for Michigan to face here...

-What if Peters gets hurt again? We are right back to JOK. They are not burning DMC's redshirt for this game. John is a great, great guy but he is the last one I want out at QB in any game. He simply is a deer in headlights, nothing more and nothing less.

-I am expecting there to be some shortage on the o-line from reading between the leaves a bit. I am not totally sure but this brings protection issues into play as well.

So, no matter suspensions/injuries etc I like the -7 if I know I am getting 4 quarters from B.P.

That is a risk in any game but here it involves a team with literally no depth at the QB position (thank you Borges and Hoke).
 
vk said:
You have to be immediately to get the original value. The other stuff should theoretically even out. Meaning you should benefit about as mush as you do not .. although you can sort of predict some of the teams most likely to have issues with suspensions and so on.
Click to expand...
Very true.

I agree with that in sports most of the time. I do take bowl season a bit differently this past 5-7 years or so though. I dunno... such a conundrum...
 
Excuse me if I missed this....

But BAR rightly alluded to Michigan protection issues. 121st in standard down sack rate and 110th in passing down sack rate.

However, the run blocking seems to be an astonishing improvement. 9th in stuff rate and 47th in stuff rate. 45th on standard downs line yards. The run blocking should absolutely have its way with SC's d-line and wear down a SC linebacker corps. I don't see many third-and-long for Peters and that will alleviate a lot of worry about pressure. Seems to me he's also an improvement over Speight and O'Korn under pressure. He seems to be checking down more and going for the surer thing.
 
Amazing thing he spear-headed and you will not be able to miss him out there on Monday, haha.
 
Still sticking with my UM bet.

If Peters gets knocked out...all bets are off...

My guess is UM is missing 2 more o-lineman...but does it really matter at this point?

Few other bumps/bruises etc.

Sunday prediction:

Michigan 27-13
 
I have O41.5 in this game.

No reason other than , I awoke, looked at the clock and it said 7:13. That's when it hit me.
 
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