Ottawa NHL Total Chase

[BetCrimes1984]

Ottawa & Minnesota currently have respectively 9 & 8 game streaks of their fixtures having totaled 5 goals or less. To appreciate how abnormal, or not, the length of these streaks actually are means finding their context - the following stats are from the 05-06 season onwards (since the rule changes) -

5 goals or less game streaks​

streak length ... No. of streaks
5 games .......... 62
6 games .......... 31
7 games .......... 16
8 games ........... 9
9 games ........... 5
10 games ......... 1
11 games ......... 0
12 games ......... 1
13 games ......... 1​

From the above can be derived the following...​

- 97.62% of the streaks that reached 5 games in length ended before they could double in size (reach 10 games).

- only 0.79% of the streaks that reached 5 games in length went on to surpass 12 games in length.


In addition -

- While streaks that ended between 5-7 games did so in a home home 51.4% of the time, streaks of 8 games or longer ended in a home game 70.6% of the time.

- Streaks ending between 8-9 games ended in a home game 78.6% of the time.

- Streaks that ended at 8+ games did so on a B2B or 1 days rest 76.4% of the time, with no streak larger than 9 games ending on any greater rest than 1 day.

- When streaks of 8 games or more have ended they've done so with a bang - averaging 8.06 goals/game, and 2.29 goals in the 1st period.
Only 3 of the current 17 streaks of 8+ games ended with a game totaling 6 goals. Just as many (3) ended totaling 10 goals or more.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
The 3 exceptional streaks of note that have ended to date (10, 12 & 13 games in length) all share core similarities -

All had "a name" goalie start the majority of the games in the streak
10 - 8 started by Kiprusoff
12 - 12 started by Kiprusoff
13 - 13 started by DiPietro

Note: every goalie started the streak ending game.

The Save % & Goals Against over the streak were good to excellent
10 - SV% = 0.953, GA = 1.50/game
12 - SV% = 0.938, GA = 1.66/game
13 - SV% = 0.930, GA = 1.84/game

Every team managed Shutouts before their streak reach 10 games
10 - 1
12 - 1
13 - 2

No team had an explosively functioning offense (Goals For)
10 - GF = 2.10/game
12 - GF = 1.92/game
13 - GF = 2.08/game

 

[gsro]

great stuff BC

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I've got further stats I'll be adding to the initial post but as time runs thin, my position is this -

Each team has a series of home games coming up (OTT 3, MIN 5). As well as the stats above pointing to streaks of these 2 teams current lengths ending at much greater percentages in home fixtures, both of these teams are generally scoring more and conceding more in home games this season. So immediately there's the indication at least 1 of these 2 streaks will end before it's owner next plays a road game.

In consequence, my approach to begin matters here without really making a long term commitment to begin any chase beyond today is to parlay both Overs together (OTT O5.5, MIN O5.0) for a pretty small bet.

 

[gsro]

ahhhhh always love your insight, your other thread on toronto and consecutive overs kind of reminds me about the trrend on the orioles and the over..cheeers

 

[BetCrimes1984]

gsro - I think it's somewhat more dangerous to chase in a 6+ goal result than a 5 or less result, so I'm treading softly at the moment. The stats I've yet to post will point to various warnings. But I'll save them until after the games are finished.

 

[twoface]

Awesome stuff BC!
This is very useful stuff.
Thanks

 

[BetCrimes1984]

twoface - :cheers:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

OK, Thursday saw both OTT & MIN keep their sub 5 goals/game streaks alive. Not at all suprised at least 1 streak survived, and fate obviously played a hand to ensure both did given one had 8.19 mins of play while it's total sat at 5 goals.


The distribution at the end of the sub 5 goals streaks graph (obviously) looked imbalanced prior to Thursdays results coming in:

5 games .......... 62
6 games .......... 31
7 games .......... 16
8 games ........... 9
9 games ........... 5
10 games ......... 1
11 games ......... 0
12 games ......... 1
13 games ......... 1​

Where the general flow for any particular run (for the 6+ goal game streaks sequencing as well) is roughly half the amount of results of the previous run, after 9 games theres a deviation from that general rule. Had the current streaks both ended Thursday...

5 games .......... 62
6 games .......... 31
7 games .......... 16
8 games .......... 10
9 games ........... 7
10 games ......... 1
11 games ......... 0
12 games ......... 1
13 games ......... 1​

...they would have served to further that imbalanced, top heavy distribution look. The other "worst" outcome from a distrubition aesthetic pov would be if both streaks surpassed 11 games in length, leading to a bottom heavy look. But as it stands, if those current streaks were to end now...

5 games .......... 62
6 games .......... 31
7 games .......... 16
8 games ........... 9
9 games ........... 6
10 games ......... 2
11 games ......... 0
12 games ......... 1
13 games ......... 1​

...there'd be a far more equitable look about things. Such a look would be equally served if their streaks ended either at 10 games each (left brackets), or at 10 & 11 games respectively (right brackets)...​

5 games .......... 62
6 games .......... 31
7 games .......... 16
8 games ........... 9
9 games ........... 5
10 games ......... (3/2)
11 games ......... (0/1)
12 games ......... 1
13 games ......... 1​

...leaving either sequence realising a more balanced continuity to the distribution aesthetic than what is viewed currently. ​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------​

Both teams play again Saturday but the OTT game will be done before the MIN game starts, and each faces an opponent with a very poor defensive record over their last 6 road games respectively (NYR 3.00 GA, STL 4.16 GA). So again I'm parlaying both games (O5.0 x O5.0) for another very small amount, with the intention of considering having a shot at MIN O5.0 by itself if OTT stays Under 6 goals vs NYR. ​

​

 

[BetCrimes1984]

as reported in a post at blankets -

games with 5.0 lines this season are 26-12-9 to Over / 68.4%

 

[twoface]

ottawa and minny keep their under streaks alive.

I see two colliding streaks tomorrow....minny under streak at 8 going into 9th game and washington capitals (4 game over streak).
Using your stats as a guideline....minny at home and with 1 day rest meets those statistical criteria.
You think facing an explosive offense like the capitals with shaky goaltending will be just what the doctor ordered for to end the streak?

Question: " with no streak larger than 9 games ending on any greater rest than 1 day."
-Does this mean streaks with 9 or more unders will goto streak of 10 when there is rest of more than 1 day???

 

[BetCrimes1984]

twoface - Minny's streak sits at 10 right now - remember, the figures I've posted aren't concerned with betting total results, but straight goal total results: here it's streaks of games <6 goals. Theoretically the books could open a Minny game total at 6.5, it lands on 6 goals so its an Under result but their streak as recorded here would be seen to end.


I'm still considering Minny's game vs Wash. Dont like that Minny is off a loss (their defensive effort isn't likely to be as relaxed as if they were off a win) and Wash being so bad against SJ doesn't do Over bettors any favours either. I've lost a pittance in my parlays so far, so I'm really not committed to any chase as of yet.
The problem Minny presents that Ottawa doesn't is they've got a name goalie performing for them. You'll note from the extended stats I added to the first post, the previous outstanding streaks (of 10+ games) all featured a name goalie. Backstrom may not be truly household name, but he's more accomplished than Auld is. If you told me Minny & Ottawa played Washington and scored 5 goals themselves, while in Ottawa's case I'd be convinced the game totaled at least 6 because I know Auld is going to let in at least 1, I couldn't be sure regarding Minny because Backstrom could've shut out Wash. So my perception is if either of these streaks were to become abnormally long, it'd be the one Minny is creating.

Question: " with no streak larger than 9 games ending on any greater rest than 1 day."
-Does this mean streaks with 9 or more (not unders, but <6 goal streaks) will goto streak of 10 when there is rest of more than 1 day???

That simply means that to date no streak greater than 8 games has ended with a team on 2 days or more rest. It doesnt mean it can't happen, only that it hasn't yet.

 

[twoface]

You make very good points BC. i didn't think about the factors that would insist both minny and washington to tighten up their D even more.
The line is heavily favouring the under tonight at 5.5 (-141)...a little higher than what i had imagined...that's for sure.

Also, thanks for clarifying!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Minnestoa's streak ends at 10 - thought I'd done the right thing ignoring that Wash contest 1/3 of the way into the 3rd period with only 3 goals scored and Wash not in the contest therefore looking uninterested. How quickly things can change with the Caps involved (their 5th straight game totaling 7 goals or more).

Toronto brings a 17 game streak of 5 goals or more to clash with Ottawa's 11 game streak of 5 goals or less on Thursday, lol. 5 goals exactly, anyone?

 

[catfood]

Ottawa almost has to go over one of its next 2 games if not both. Every Ottawa game so far in November has gone UNDER and 1 push. Over 5.5 is -116 tonight. Toronto has gone over its last 7 road games. Also maybe of note, Ottawa has scored more than 1 goal in the first period twice all year (against Phoenix & Philly). Scheduling pattern for Toronto really favours an UNDER and the pattern for Ottawa slightly favours an OVER though for tonight lol

 

[catfood]

Torontos first period total has gone under 1.5 the last 2 games, it hasnt gone under for 3 straight all year but Toronto itself has scored more than 1 goal in the first period only once this year.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

With Ottawa's streak now at 12 games (the record mark standing at 13 games), and their next 3 opponents being NYI (letting goals in like crazy), Atlanta (say no more) & Pittsburgh (back to high scoring game ways), this is now worth a real chase imo.

Also love the fact Auld has let in 1, 2, 1 & 1 goals in regulation his last 4. This guy doesn't have the history to keep that up, whereas much of this streak was formed by him letting in goals but his offense contributing nothing.

--------------------
edit: Over 5.5 to win 200

 

[twoface]

BC you officially chasing ottawa over starting tonight??
hope with your blessing, it will finally hit! lol

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Couldn't start with the Toronto game, twoface, since they had that significant conflicting streak I mentioned.:cheers:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

18:59 Trent Hunter (10), Empty Net, Unassisted

money;

 

[twoface]

Nice hit BC!
You are now 2-0 on totals chases!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I hope you made a dent in your prior investment in this, twoface:shake:

 

[twoface]

lol
nah, i wish.
it barely made a scratch. nice to see you hit on game 1 though!
i read some where that game 7s have been hitting at a good rate during long totals streaks....do you happen to have any data on this BC?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I haven't got any other stats regarding NHL streaks aside from the ones in this thread and my Toronto chase thread, twoface.