Gordon gekko
Pretty much a regular
I'm hoping to help out capper's who are on the fence on some of these games. I've sent all plays out so, we've got the numbers we've wanted.
Quick notes:
Mac has been difficult to cap, so use bankroll management with these games. I think it'll start to define the top/lower tiered teams in the conference following this week. My focus is on key data points within a game which includes baseline spread/total, OL/DL, Red zone percentages, Strength of Schedule, Injuries and situational spots. I do have a model that gives me all these points and then gives me edges for each game. I'm not a top echelon modeler so why would I try and build one that can't compete with the Dr. Bob's of the world. So, in turn we have to find an edge using the points that I've stated above.
I'm kicking myself right now as I had the total of Wake Forest/Army much higher and doubted the total because it was way off from market. My total was 60.5. Ugghh..Both have RZ edges with my rankings of + value, PPP Wake Forest (22nd) Army (34th). Army recent losses to Wisconsin and Ball State probably kept this total lower than expected as opened 52 and moved 1/2 pt. Ball State did get some players back, but once again it's the MAC.
Team (my Spread), Widely Available lines my spread or total:
Georgia St (-7) (Texas St+10'), 2:00 pm ET, finding value on Texas St.
Small edge with Ga State on OL/DL, SOS is a bit concerning however RZ edge goes to Texas St.
Texas State has played some close games and if they do score TD's in RZ, will keep this line close if they are able to slow the run down. For some reason they've been able to do that the past couple of seasons. They've been in this number the past three times they've played and even with a new head coach in 2019, won in 4 OT's. They do force turnovers, ranking 58th and if they are in the plus column today, maybe even a ML win.
Quick notes:
Mac has been difficult to cap, so use bankroll management with these games. I think it'll start to define the top/lower tiered teams in the conference following this week. My focus is on key data points within a game which includes baseline spread/total, OL/DL, Red zone percentages, Strength of Schedule, Injuries and situational spots. I do have a model that gives me all these points and then gives me edges for each game. I'm not a top echelon modeler so why would I try and build one that can't compete with the Dr. Bob's of the world. So, in turn we have to find an edge using the points that I've stated above.
I'm kicking myself right now as I had the total of Wake Forest/Army much higher and doubted the total because it was way off from market. My total was 60.5. Ugghh..Both have RZ edges with my rankings of + value, PPP Wake Forest (22nd) Army (34th). Army recent losses to Wisconsin and Ball State probably kept this total lower than expected as opened 52 and moved 1/2 pt. Ball State did get some players back, but once again it's the MAC.
Team (my Spread), Widely Available lines my spread or total:
Georgia St (-7) (Texas St+10'), 2:00 pm ET, finding value on Texas St.
Small edge with Ga State on OL/DL, SOS is a bit concerning however RZ edge goes to Texas St.
Texas State has played some close games and if they do score TD's in RZ, will keep this line close if they are able to slow the run down. For some reason they've been able to do that the past couple of seasons. They've been in this number the past three times they've played and even with a new head coach in 2019, won in 4 OT's. They do force turnovers, ranking 58th and if they are in the plus column today, maybe even a ML win.
