Orioles/RedSox

scdoggy

Moderator (Honorary)
Hey fellas, thought I'd throw my two cents in here on the O's Sox game. I saw some good discussions in BetCrimes thread last night and wanted to follow up:

We all know Cabrera has been one of those guys who over his career has been a Jekyll and Hyde type. Just when you start drinking the Kool Aid and thinking he's finally gotten his act together, he walks 7 in 4 innings and gives up 5 ER.... But it hasn't happened this year.... yet.

Beckett is Beckett. You know what you're getting. One of the most consistent guys in the game.

A number that I feel is getting overlooked a bit is the bullpens. Balt has a pen with an ERA of .5 lower than Boston. And the Orioles have been playing well on the road. Albers blew the game against Halladay or they would have swept the Jays in Toronto, a place where they've had lots of trouble over the years. Before that, Balt took 2 of 3 in Minny, so the road hasn't been their enemy as of late.

I'm kinda torn on this play, because I do think Cabrera is about to hit the skids. two of his last three on the road have had him reverting to old form and walking hitters or getting knocked around. He also may be suffering from longer pitch counts. He's gone over 100 pitches in 7 of his last 8 games, and looked tired early in his last start against Minny.

On the other hand, I'm not backing a banged up Boston lineup at a price above -200, I don't care who is pitching.

Big lean for me to the Over here. They don't make a total of 9 with these two on the hill for no apparent reason. And probably to get to 9 Boston will have to win by 2 or more...... But again, Balt has played good on the road and Cabrera has the ability to pitch well when he wants to.

I'lll wait and see who's behind the dish before playing this one. But for me, its an Over or a pass.

Good luck fellas
 
Thanks Rex. I kinda like that idea. Again, anyone who lays -200 and up with Boston is smoking some shit that's better than I can get around here in my old age.

I may ride with you on that OVER/Balt parlay
 
Greg Gibson Rex. Consistently low strike percentage. Probably will hurt Cabrera more than Beckett.

I"m biting on the total:

Bal/Bos OVER 9 -105 three units
For kicks GImmie Balt +196 for one unit
 
added a few others:

Tex/KC OVER 9 -115 two units. Wind blowing out. Shaky starters, shakier pens.
 
I missed the Boston over with the early start, hope it comes through for you. Looks like a solid play, GL Doggy.
 
24 pitch first for Cabrera with two hits and two walks but he only gives up one as Manny GIDP with bases loaded.

Last one for now:

COL -1.5 +115 two units.
San fran lucky to escape the Nats as they tried to give it away in the eighth. Tough to travel to Coors and face a groundballer (Cook) who has looked great this season. Wind blowing out to right center at 20 mph....... Love the Rocks
 
Thanks guys. Rex - I owe you one for talking me into not chickening out on the birds ML. Hope you parlayed the two like you planned.

TOnight's matchup has Colon against Olson. Olson has looked great over his last few games and we get an ump that you've gotta dig though the numbers a bit to find something, but I think I've got it:

Runge behind the dish. Consistently over 63% strikes. You have to go back to 2003 to find a full season where he called less than 63%.
His over/under numbers aren't overwhelming, but look at the games with totals from 10-12. He's 11-20 UNDER since 2001.

I threw 2 units on the UNDER at 10 -115. The price on this should come down so grab it now if you want it. I'd expect a 9.5 to come up by first pitch. Wind is blowing across the field from left to right.
 
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