Orioles Are Good Guys For Bettors In Clash With Evil Empire
Baltimore (14-26) at New York Yankees (24-16)
When: 6:35 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
MLB Pick: Orioles First-Half & Full-Game RL & Over
New York's Jonathan Loaisiga (1-1, 4.50 ERA) struggles in particular with his command. He allows over five walks per nine innings. Loaisiga doesn't do much well after the first pitch. The disparity between his high first-pitch strike rate and low overall strike percentage is revealing. He is confident, but lacks the quality to finish off batters. He relies heavily on a fastball. It shows strong velocity, but that's about it. He throws it with 52 percent frequency, but opponents slug .810 against it.
The theme is bad location. Six of his nine most frequent fastball locations are in the most middle parts of the strike zone, where opponents tend to take advantage. In five of those nine spots, their slugging rate is either 1.000 or 2.000 against his fastball.
It's important for hitters to be aggressive against Loasiga because prospects brighten for him when he gets to two strikes, in which scenario he likes to rely on an effective curveball. I like Baltimore because they are already one of the most aggressive lineups based on overall swing percentage and on swing percentage at pitches outside of the strike zone. They won't let the count get too two strikes too many times.
Overall, the O's match up well with Loaisiga. They rank ninth in slugging against high-velocity (94-99 mph) fastballs from right-handed starting pitchers. Chris Davis is a good power candidate as he has two homers in his past three games. Trey Mancini has at least one hit in five of his past six games and he has enjoyed facing the Yanks so far. In Baltimore's other series in the Bronx, he hit .462 and slugged .769. This is pretty consistent with his numbers last year at Yankee Stadium, which was his second-favorite ballpark to hit in, his own included.
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Baltimore's David Hess (1-4, 5.50 ERA) is in a good spot against a Yankee lineup that has struggled lately against opposing starting pitchers. In six straight games, the Yanks have mustered two runs or fewer through five innings.
Hess' high ERA says enough. But he has the advantage over his Yankee counterpart that he does a better job of varying the location of his favorite pitch, the fastball, and avoiding the middle of the plate with it. Opponents' slugging rate is .303 lower against it than against Loaisiga's fastball.
The Yankees are priced highly despite the amazing number of injuries that their lineup has suffered. Gary Sanchez, whose three homers played a significant role when Hess lost to the Yanks in early April, is the latest to have health problems. He got hit hard in the head on Saturday and is listed as day-to-day. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius are among the injured Yankee batters. Aaron Hicks will be activated and try to enter the fray for his first at-bats of the season.
Both bullpens rank towards the bottom in terms of ERA and each one will contribute to tonight's high scoring total. Baltimore's best relievers, Mychal Givens and Paul Fry, pitched yesterday, but didn't throw too many pitches and should still be fresh enough. Loaisiga has yet to exceed four innings. So even if the Yanks' top two relievers (Adam Ottavino and Tommy Kahnle) pitch, Baltimore will still get a few innings against the rest of New York's pen.
History has much to say in favor of the O's, who are 8-4 on the run-line in their last 12 games at Yankee stadium, dating to last season.
Baltimore (14-26) at New York Yankees (24-16)
When: 6:35 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
MLB Pick: Orioles First-Half & Full-Game RL & Over
New York's Jonathan Loaisiga (1-1, 4.50 ERA) struggles in particular with his command. He allows over five walks per nine innings. Loaisiga doesn't do much well after the first pitch. The disparity between his high first-pitch strike rate and low overall strike percentage is revealing. He is confident, but lacks the quality to finish off batters. He relies heavily on a fastball. It shows strong velocity, but that's about it. He throws it with 52 percent frequency, but opponents slug .810 against it.
The theme is bad location. Six of his nine most frequent fastball locations are in the most middle parts of the strike zone, where opponents tend to take advantage. In five of those nine spots, their slugging rate is either 1.000 or 2.000 against his fastball.
It's important for hitters to be aggressive against Loasiga because prospects brighten for him when he gets to two strikes, in which scenario he likes to rely on an effective curveball. I like Baltimore because they are already one of the most aggressive lineups based on overall swing percentage and on swing percentage at pitches outside of the strike zone. They won't let the count get too two strikes too many times.
Overall, the O's match up well with Loaisiga. They rank ninth in slugging against high-velocity (94-99 mph) fastballs from right-handed starting pitchers. Chris Davis is a good power candidate as he has two homers in his past three games. Trey Mancini has at least one hit in five of his past six games and he has enjoyed facing the Yanks so far. In Baltimore's other series in the Bronx, he hit .462 and slugged .769. This is pretty consistent with his numbers last year at Yankee Stadium, which was his second-favorite ballpark to hit in, his own included.
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Baltimore's David Hess (1-4, 5.50 ERA) is in a good spot against a Yankee lineup that has struggled lately against opposing starting pitchers. In six straight games, the Yanks have mustered two runs or fewer through five innings.
Hess' high ERA says enough. But he has the advantage over his Yankee counterpart that he does a better job of varying the location of his favorite pitch, the fastball, and avoiding the middle of the plate with it. Opponents' slugging rate is .303 lower against it than against Loaisiga's fastball.
The Yankees are priced highly despite the amazing number of injuries that their lineup has suffered. Gary Sanchez, whose three homers played a significant role when Hess lost to the Yanks in early April, is the latest to have health problems. He got hit hard in the head on Saturday and is listed as day-to-day. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius are among the injured Yankee batters. Aaron Hicks will be activated and try to enter the fray for his first at-bats of the season.
Both bullpens rank towards the bottom in terms of ERA and each one will contribute to tonight's high scoring total. Baltimore's best relievers, Mychal Givens and Paul Fry, pitched yesterday, but didn't throw too many pitches and should still be fresh enough. Loaisiga has yet to exceed four innings. So even if the Yanks' top two relievers (Adam Ottavino and Tommy Kahnle) pitch, Baltimore will still get a few innings against the rest of New York's pen.
History has much to say in favor of the O's, who are 8-4 on the run-line in their last 12 games at Yankee stadium, dating to last season.
