Last article for the week. Chalk it up... (please don't play, Herbert)
Pick Ducks to Drown vs Washington
No. 12 Washington (7-1) hosts rival Oregon (5-4) Saturday at 10 PM ET. The Huskies are favored by 17 points.
Oregon Head Coach Willie Taggart has done everything to pretend that star Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert might play vs Washington. His latest maneuver was to have Herbert practice with the first-team while the media was watching. Taggart's plan has forced the Huskies to prepare to play either Herbert or backup Braxton Burmeister. Taggart has also lured bettors with the prospect of an easy investment: the line opened at 26, but bettors have poured money and dropped the spread by 9 points.
A bet on Washington is partly a bet that Herbert will not play. He is physically capable of suiting up. But even if he were to play, he probably isn't ready to withstand tackles.
The difference between Burmeister and Herbert is immense. Herbert's completion % was 68, he averaged 10 yards per attempt and threw 9 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. The Freshman Burmeister was going to redshirt this season. He averages less than 5 yards per attempt and has thrown 3 more interceptions than touchdowns. Herbert can throw. Burmeister cannot.
Oddsmakers have yet to come close to accounting for Herbert's significance. After Herbert's injury, the Ducks failed to cover their next 3 games, missing the cover by 21.5 points vs Washington State, 32 points vs Stanford and 11.5 points vs California. They outmatched a reeling Utah squad behind their rush attack.
Whereas Utah's rush defense ranks towards the bottom of the Pac-12, Washington's is 2nd in the NCAA. They allow 79 rush yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. Oregon's offense consists entirely in its run game. But they won't be able to run against the Huskies, especially without a passing game to alleviate pressure off Royce Freeman, who has zero touchdowns in the four games since Herbert's injury.
The Huskies' defensive line composes its strength on defense. Vita Vea boasts incredible speed and athleticism for a 340-pounder. Greg Gaines is statistically one of the best run stoppers. He uses his low center of gravity to obtain leverage against blockers. Like Vea, he possesses the strength to explode past double teams. Their mobility makes them disruptive in the interior and a force in the screen game.
Oregon's defensive line is spearheaded by nose tackle Jordon Scott. Scott is physically talented. But the freshman's lack of experience makes him inconsistent. Oregon's defensive line lacks depth, especially in terms of size.
Running back Myles Gaskin averages 6.1 yards per carry for the Huskies. He excels at wearing down opposing defensive lines, like that of Colorado, UCLA and Oregon, who struggle with size and depth. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS when they run for more than 100 yards, and 0-3 ATS when they run for fewer than 100.
Quarterback Jake Browning will help Gaskin by exploiting a Ducks secondary that ranks 70th in opposing quarterback rating. The key defensive back for Browning to pick on will be freshman cornerback Thomas Graham Jr. Browning is one of the Pac-12's most dangerous deep passers and speedy receiver Dante Pettis one of the best deep threats.
Browning and Pettis can do the most to stretch out Oregon's defense vertically and help Gaskin. Oregon consistently struggles against balanced offenses. They have the tools to execute the play-action and the run/pass option, with which Arizona State had exposed Oregon in their upset victory.
The Verdict
Oregon is limited on offense without a decent passer against a superior run defense. The Huskies should wear down Oregon's defense with Gaskin and stretch them out vertically with Browning and Pettis.
NCAAF Pick: Washington -17
Pick Ducks to Drown vs Washington
No. 12 Washington (7-1) hosts rival Oregon (5-4) Saturday at 10 PM ET. The Huskies are favored by 17 points.
Oregon Head Coach Willie Taggart has done everything to pretend that star Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert might play vs Washington. His latest maneuver was to have Herbert practice with the first-team while the media was watching. Taggart's plan has forced the Huskies to prepare to play either Herbert or backup Braxton Burmeister. Taggart has also lured bettors with the prospect of an easy investment: the line opened at 26, but bettors have poured money and dropped the spread by 9 points.
A bet on Washington is partly a bet that Herbert will not play. He is physically capable of suiting up. But even if he were to play, he probably isn't ready to withstand tackles.
The difference between Burmeister and Herbert is immense. Herbert's completion % was 68, he averaged 10 yards per attempt and threw 9 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. The Freshman Burmeister was going to redshirt this season. He averages less than 5 yards per attempt and has thrown 3 more interceptions than touchdowns. Herbert can throw. Burmeister cannot.
Oddsmakers have yet to come close to accounting for Herbert's significance. After Herbert's injury, the Ducks failed to cover their next 3 games, missing the cover by 21.5 points vs Washington State, 32 points vs Stanford and 11.5 points vs California. They outmatched a reeling Utah squad behind their rush attack.
Whereas Utah's rush defense ranks towards the bottom of the Pac-12, Washington's is 2nd in the NCAA. They allow 79 rush yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. Oregon's offense consists entirely in its run game. But they won't be able to run against the Huskies, especially without a passing game to alleviate pressure off Royce Freeman, who has zero touchdowns in the four games since Herbert's injury.
The Huskies' defensive line composes its strength on defense. Vita Vea boasts incredible speed and athleticism for a 340-pounder. Greg Gaines is statistically one of the best run stoppers. He uses his low center of gravity to obtain leverage against blockers. Like Vea, he possesses the strength to explode past double teams. Their mobility makes them disruptive in the interior and a force in the screen game.
Oregon's defensive line is spearheaded by nose tackle Jordon Scott. Scott is physically talented. But the freshman's lack of experience makes him inconsistent. Oregon's defensive line lacks depth, especially in terms of size.
Running back Myles Gaskin averages 6.1 yards per carry for the Huskies. He excels at wearing down opposing defensive lines, like that of Colorado, UCLA and Oregon, who struggle with size and depth. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS when they run for more than 100 yards, and 0-3 ATS when they run for fewer than 100.
Quarterback Jake Browning will help Gaskin by exploiting a Ducks secondary that ranks 70th in opposing quarterback rating. The key defensive back for Browning to pick on will be freshman cornerback Thomas Graham Jr. Browning is one of the Pac-12's most dangerous deep passers and speedy receiver Dante Pettis one of the best deep threats.
Browning and Pettis can do the most to stretch out Oregon's defense vertically and help Gaskin. Oregon consistently struggles against balanced offenses. They have the tools to execute the play-action and the run/pass option, with which Arizona State had exposed Oregon in their upset victory.
The Verdict
Oregon is limited on offense without a decent passer against a superior run defense. The Huskies should wear down Oregon's defense with Gaskin and stretch them out vertically with Browning and Pettis.
NCAAF Pick: Washington -17
