Oregon vs. Oregon State: NCAAF Week 13 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers
Friday, November 26, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon
Trend
The “over” is a combined 4-0 in Oregon and Oregon State’s last two games.
I expect this trend to continue on Friday.
My argument will revolve around the fact that both teams rank poorly on defense, despite facing softer competition, that various Beaver and Duck offensive pieces can flourish against.
Oregon State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Oregon State boasts one of the conference’s best running backs in Jermar Jefferson, who’s currently averaging 7.2 YPC.
Jefferson is a strong running back who’s difficult to bring down especially via mere arm tackle attempts.
He also has positive breakaway speed, which is why his longest run this season was 75 yards.
His offensive line helps him out. OSU’s run-blocking unit was severely underrated heading into the season due to the departure of a few starters.
But the Beavers brought back veteran talent with starting experience. Probably most important was the return of center Nathan Eldridge.
As a former All-Pac 12 second-teamer, Eldridge’s return is meaningful given his individual quality.
Eldridge’s return, though, has also allowed Nous Keobounnam to return to right guard, which is his natural position and the position where he’s invested most of his career at.
The Beavers will thrive on the ground against an Oregon run defense that ranks 106th nationally in allowing 5.2 YPC.
Routinely, the Ducks allow opposing running backs to enjoy the best game of their season.
Opposing offensive lines are reliably shoving around Duck defensive linemen.
The absence of linebacker Noah Sewell, who is listed as ‘questionable,’ would exacerbate Oregon’s issues in run defense.
Oregon’s secondary is also damaged by unplanned departures.
Top cornerback Thomas Graham and two would-be starting safeties or nickle-backs opted out of the season.
Their absences help explain how poor the Ducks’ pass defense stats are even though they have benefitted from encountering soft tests posed by raw, unproven, and unexciting freshmen quarterbacks.
So it would be easy to say that Oregon should be able to stack the box in order to mollify Oregon State’s running impetus.
But the Ducks have shown no indication of this ability.
Beaver quarterback Tristan Gebbia has been well-tested by the Pac-12’s continually top-ranked pass defenses of Washington and Cal.
Against Oregon’s regressed secondary, which helps explain why the Ducks rank easily below average in opposing passing yards per game, Gebbia will at least approach the numbers that he put up in OSU’s opener against Washington State.
Oregon Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
Former four-star recruit, Duck quarterback Tyler Shough was initially shaky in his debut, the team’s regular season opener against Stanford.
But his (initial) shakiness proved irrelevant. The losses that Oregon’s offensive line suffered during the offseason also proved meaningless.
Despite having a new offensive coordinator, the Duck offensive live still fulfills head coach Mario Cristobal’s vision of a physical and imposing unit. This unit helped Oregon run for 269 yards on 40 attempts against Stanford.
All-Pac 12 second-teamer CJ Verdell is still one of the conference’s top running backs. He’s currently averaging 4.8 YPC.
He has grown stronger and more elusive, which makes him accrue more rushing yards after contact because defenders have a harder time achieving a good angle and bringing sufficient force to halt his momentum.
It’s true that this Beaver defense has taken conspicuous strides forward since its 2018 unit. But this progress isn’t positively revealing because of how bad the Beaver defense was in 2018 and it’s still bad.
Like Oregon, the Beavers rank outside the top 100 in yielding over five YPC. They remain far from being able to limit Verdell.
What will also help the Ducks score a lot is the improved play of Shough, who has settled in at quarterback with two consecutive 300-yard passing performances that complement his repeated dangerousness as a runner.
Shough will exploit a Beaver secondary that returns plenty of experience last year, which prompted Oregon State’s urgency to bring in other, hopefully better defensive backs.
The Verdict
I don’t see either defense having success in this game.
Oregon will score plenty with budding quarterback play and a strong run game.
The Beavers will counter with their pass and rush attacks exploiting Oregon’s losses especially in the secondary.
Best Bet: Over 64 at -109 with GT Bets
Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers
Friday, November 26, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon
Trend
The “over” is a combined 4-0 in Oregon and Oregon State’s last two games.
I expect this trend to continue on Friday.
My argument will revolve around the fact that both teams rank poorly on defense, despite facing softer competition, that various Beaver and Duck offensive pieces can flourish against.
Oregon State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Oregon State boasts one of the conference’s best running backs in Jermar Jefferson, who’s currently averaging 7.2 YPC.
Jefferson is a strong running back who’s difficult to bring down especially via mere arm tackle attempts.
He also has positive breakaway speed, which is why his longest run this season was 75 yards.
His offensive line helps him out. OSU’s run-blocking unit was severely underrated heading into the season due to the departure of a few starters.
But the Beavers brought back veteran talent with starting experience. Probably most important was the return of center Nathan Eldridge.
As a former All-Pac 12 second-teamer, Eldridge’s return is meaningful given his individual quality.
Eldridge’s return, though, has also allowed Nous Keobounnam to return to right guard, which is his natural position and the position where he’s invested most of his career at.
The Beavers will thrive on the ground against an Oregon run defense that ranks 106th nationally in allowing 5.2 YPC.
Routinely, the Ducks allow opposing running backs to enjoy the best game of their season.
Opposing offensive lines are reliably shoving around Duck defensive linemen.
The absence of linebacker Noah Sewell, who is listed as ‘questionable,’ would exacerbate Oregon’s issues in run defense.
Oregon’s secondary is also damaged by unplanned departures.
Top cornerback Thomas Graham and two would-be starting safeties or nickle-backs opted out of the season.
Their absences help explain how poor the Ducks’ pass defense stats are even though they have benefitted from encountering soft tests posed by raw, unproven, and unexciting freshmen quarterbacks.
So it would be easy to say that Oregon should be able to stack the box in order to mollify Oregon State’s running impetus.
But the Ducks have shown no indication of this ability.
Beaver quarterback Tristan Gebbia has been well-tested by the Pac-12’s continually top-ranked pass defenses of Washington and Cal.
Against Oregon’s regressed secondary, which helps explain why the Ducks rank easily below average in opposing passing yards per game, Gebbia will at least approach the numbers that he put up in OSU’s opener against Washington State.
Oregon Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
Former four-star recruit, Duck quarterback Tyler Shough was initially shaky in his debut, the team’s regular season opener against Stanford.
But his (initial) shakiness proved irrelevant. The losses that Oregon’s offensive line suffered during the offseason also proved meaningless.
Despite having a new offensive coordinator, the Duck offensive live still fulfills head coach Mario Cristobal’s vision of a physical and imposing unit. This unit helped Oregon run for 269 yards on 40 attempts against Stanford.
All-Pac 12 second-teamer CJ Verdell is still one of the conference’s top running backs. He’s currently averaging 4.8 YPC.
He has grown stronger and more elusive, which makes him accrue more rushing yards after contact because defenders have a harder time achieving a good angle and bringing sufficient force to halt his momentum.
It’s true that this Beaver defense has taken conspicuous strides forward since its 2018 unit. But this progress isn’t positively revealing because of how bad the Beaver defense was in 2018 and it’s still bad.
Like Oregon, the Beavers rank outside the top 100 in yielding over five YPC. They remain far from being able to limit Verdell.
What will also help the Ducks score a lot is the improved play of Shough, who has settled in at quarterback with two consecutive 300-yard passing performances that complement his repeated dangerousness as a runner.
Shough will exploit a Beaver secondary that returns plenty of experience last year, which prompted Oregon State’s urgency to bring in other, hopefully better defensive backs.
The Verdict
I don’t see either defense having success in this game.
Oregon will score plenty with budding quarterback play and a strong run game.
The Beavers will counter with their pass and rush attacks exploiting Oregon’s losses especially in the secondary.
Best Bet: Over 64 at -109 with GT Bets
