Knocking out the work so I can go trip with my amigos. Never wanted to overthink this one.
Soaring Ducks Seek Revenge vs Catastrophic Oregon State
Oregon (6-5) hosts Oregon State (1-10) Saturday at 7 PM for the 121st Civil War Rivalry game. The Ducks are deservedly favored by more than 3 touchdowns and seek revenge at home for last year's defeat.
Oregon State has consistently been a disaster on the road. Their best performance was a 14 point loss at California. Otherwise, they have lost their other 4 road games by over 20 points. The Beavers are 1-3-1 ATS on the road.
They have allowed over 35 points in every road game. They rank 126th in points allowed and allow 46.8 points per road game.
Their defense has been in disarray from the start. The coaches are still struggling to make schematic adjustments after giving up over 30 points in week 1 at home to FCS Portland State. They are trying to go "back to basics," meaning that Oregon's elite offense won't see puzzles from the Beavers' defense.
They also won't see many players who were intended to start. The Beavers' defense is suffering numerous injuries. The lack of continuity hurts the efforts of their coaches to instill organization and structure in their defense. Instead of a group of defenders who are gelling together throughout the season, new faces interrupt the development of chemistry. The lack of talent is also evident especially in the secondary, where the Beavers have three cornerbacks out and additional defensive backs whose playing status is still uncertain. The Beavers rank 121st in opposing passer rating.
Enter Justin Herbert. The now healthy star quarterback shook off the rust last week against Arizona, completing 66% of his passes. The consistently reliable Herbert completes almost 70% of his passes, boasts a 10:3 touchdown to interception ratio and averages over 10 yards per pass attempt.
The Beavers' run defense is similarly catastrophic. They have allowed 180+ rush yards in 6 out of their last 7 games. Players are missing assignments, failing to fill in gaps, secure tackles and shed blocks. The Beavers rank 116th in allowing 5.4 yards per carry. They allow 6.0 on the road.
Oregon's offense is well-balanced. Now that Herbert is back, Oregon can consistently drive down the field. All of running back Royce Freeman's 14 rushing touchdowns this season have come with Herbert playing. Freeman leads the team with 6 YPC and is supported by two backup running backs who average 5.8+ yards per carry with more than 50 carries. Oregon ranks 27th in yards per carry, despite having had to be one-dimensional on offense for 5 games without Herbert.
Oregon State's strength is the power rush attack led by Ryan Nall's 5.1 yards per carry. However, when Oregon builds a sizable lead, Oregon State will have to pass more to catch up. Quarterback Darell Garretson is managing just 6.7 yards per pass attempt and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns on the season. 4 of his 5 touchdowns came against Arizona with the game already decided.
The Ducks' pass rush should prevent Garretson from finding a rhythm and force him into making more mistakes and turnovers. Their sack percentage at home would rank them in the top 15. Defensive End Jalen Jelks leads the team with 15 tackles for loss and 7 sacks. Oregon's ability to dominate defensively stems especially from their ability to penetrate into the backfield. They rank 21st with 7+ tackles for loss per game.
The Verdict
Oregon would be 3-0 ATS as double digit favorites had they not sleepwalked the second half against Nebraska, who backdoor covered. The Ducks' elite, balanced offense can score at will against Oregon State's porous and decimated defense. The Beavers lack the tools on offense to counter. Expect Oregon, hungry for revenge, to achieve a monstrous first half.
NCAAF Pick: Oregon 1H
Soaring Ducks Seek Revenge vs Catastrophic Oregon State
Oregon (6-5) hosts Oregon State (1-10) Saturday at 7 PM for the 121st Civil War Rivalry game. The Ducks are deservedly favored by more than 3 touchdowns and seek revenge at home for last year's defeat.
Oregon State has consistently been a disaster on the road. Their best performance was a 14 point loss at California. Otherwise, they have lost their other 4 road games by over 20 points. The Beavers are 1-3-1 ATS on the road.
They have allowed over 35 points in every road game. They rank 126th in points allowed and allow 46.8 points per road game.
Their defense has been in disarray from the start. The coaches are still struggling to make schematic adjustments after giving up over 30 points in week 1 at home to FCS Portland State. They are trying to go "back to basics," meaning that Oregon's elite offense won't see puzzles from the Beavers' defense.
They also won't see many players who were intended to start. The Beavers' defense is suffering numerous injuries. The lack of continuity hurts the efforts of their coaches to instill organization and structure in their defense. Instead of a group of defenders who are gelling together throughout the season, new faces interrupt the development of chemistry. The lack of talent is also evident especially in the secondary, where the Beavers have three cornerbacks out and additional defensive backs whose playing status is still uncertain. The Beavers rank 121st in opposing passer rating.
Enter Justin Herbert. The now healthy star quarterback shook off the rust last week against Arizona, completing 66% of his passes. The consistently reliable Herbert completes almost 70% of his passes, boasts a 10:3 touchdown to interception ratio and averages over 10 yards per pass attempt.
The Beavers' run defense is similarly catastrophic. They have allowed 180+ rush yards in 6 out of their last 7 games. Players are missing assignments, failing to fill in gaps, secure tackles and shed blocks. The Beavers rank 116th in allowing 5.4 yards per carry. They allow 6.0 on the road.
Oregon's offense is well-balanced. Now that Herbert is back, Oregon can consistently drive down the field. All of running back Royce Freeman's 14 rushing touchdowns this season have come with Herbert playing. Freeman leads the team with 6 YPC and is supported by two backup running backs who average 5.8+ yards per carry with more than 50 carries. Oregon ranks 27th in yards per carry, despite having had to be one-dimensional on offense for 5 games without Herbert.
Oregon State's strength is the power rush attack led by Ryan Nall's 5.1 yards per carry. However, when Oregon builds a sizable lead, Oregon State will have to pass more to catch up. Quarterback Darell Garretson is managing just 6.7 yards per pass attempt and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns on the season. 4 of his 5 touchdowns came against Arizona with the game already decided.
The Ducks' pass rush should prevent Garretson from finding a rhythm and force him into making more mistakes and turnovers. Their sack percentage at home would rank them in the top 15. Defensive End Jalen Jelks leads the team with 15 tackles for loss and 7 sacks. Oregon's ability to dominate defensively stems especially from their ability to penetrate into the backfield. They rank 21st with 7+ tackles for loss per game.
The Verdict
Oregon would be 3-0 ATS as double digit favorites had they not sleepwalked the second half against Nebraska, who backdoor covered. The Ducks' elite, balanced offense can score at will against Oregon State's porous and decimated defense. The Beavers lack the tools on offense to counter. Expect Oregon, hungry for revenge, to achieve a monstrous first half.
NCAAF Pick: Oregon 1H
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