Oregon vs. Ohio State College Football Picks for Week 2
Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, September 11, 2021 at noon ET (FOX) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus
Week 2 Trap
In recommending that you tail my play on this game, I am asking that you do not fall for the trap that many college football bettors fall into.
During Week 1's games, bettors are eager to see how the different players and teams look.
They forget, though, that the season opener is one game with its own unique set of circumstances (rust, new playbooks, player inexperience, extra preparation time, etc.) in addition to the variables that accompany every game.
As a result, they attach too much significance to Week 1 and overreact with respect to betting on Week 2's games.
We avoid falling into this trap of overreaction by taking a step back from Week 1. We don't want to forget what happened in Week 1, but we want to also adopt a broader perspective.
Oregon's "Stagnant" Offense
After Oregon slid past heavily underdogged Fresno State in Week 1, many Oregon fans and beat writers are showing panic.
If this game against the Bulldogs were the only thing that Ducks supporters could point to as a source of expectations for the rest of their season, then their pessimism might be somewhat less unreasonable.
To be fair, it is true that the Duck offense stagnated and, until clutch time, likely inspired boredom in every insouciant observer.
Expecting Oregon's offense to repeat its lackluster performance in Week 2 is unjustifiable for two reasons: such an expectation overlooks Oregon's offseason expectations for its offense and it overlooks Oregon's early-season strategy.
Regarding the latter, it is reasonable to expect that the Ducks were looking ahead. After all, there's a reason bettors classify games such as Oregon's Week 1 contest as "look-ahead" games.
The Ducks did not want to reveal their cards against a three-touchdown underdog, but wanted to save their secrets and surprises for prestigious Ohio State.
We see these underperformances against bad teams followed by an ensuing uptick in competitive quality all the time in sports. One recent example is Florida losing to LSU last year and then looking vastly more competitive and competent against Alabama.
Joe Moorhead
Regarding Oregon's offseason expectations on offense, these revolve partly around offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead.
The former Penn State offensive coordinator is now in Year 2 with Oregon. Year 2 is huge: his offense has adopted and learned more of his playbook and has gained a significantly stronger comfort with and understanding of the offense that Moorhead wants to run.
Week 1 saw a lot of boring power runs and these do reflect Mario Cristobal's long-standing vision for a more physical Duck offense.
If all Oregon were to do in Week 2 was run up the middle with its powerful one-two punch at running back, then sure, one could concoct a pro-Ohio State narrative revolving around the lack of physicality and experience especially on the right side of Oregon's offensive line relative to Minnesota's and the increased experience that the "new" Buckeye linebacking corps gained after Week 1.
This might be your line of thinking if you fell into the aforementioned trap.
But not only are the Ducks physical -- led by decorated, multi-time 1,000-yard rusher CJ Verdell and his mate Travis Dye, who averages nearly six YPC in his Duck career. They are also creative.
This is where Moorhead comes in: as evident in his Penn State days, Moorhead's offense likes to feature verticality in its passing attack that stretches the field, utilization of talented tight ends, mobile quarterbacks, RPOs, and a versatile group of running backs.
With veteran Anthony Brown, talented pass-catchers, and a stacked group of running backs that, beyond Verdell and Dye, features former highly-ranked recruits listed as both running back and wide receiver because they can also catch passes, the Ducks own the desired personnel for Moorhead.
Oregon's offense will be more dangerous than Minnesota's not only because of individual player quality -- exhibiting a depth far beyond that which the Golden Gophers showed in their overdependence on a single running back -- but because of the way in which creativity complements physicality under Moorhead and Cristobal.
Buckeye Defense: Linebackers and Secondary
"Over" bettors may worry that the Ducks will try to dominate time of possession and be successful in doing so, like the Gophers did with their overwhelming advantage in number of plays run. The worry here is that too much clock will drain, which is bad for an "over."
But one reason why that Gopher-Buckeye game was so high-scoring and one reason why the Gophers ran so many more plays was that Ohio State repeatedly gained quick touchdowns.
Quick touchdowns are obviously great for an "over" and I will get into Ohio State's offense in a bit.
Oregon's offense is in a great spot in Week 2 also because of the massive turnover in Ohio State's linebacking group and in the youth of Ohio State's secondary.
While that youth is primarily focused in the backups, we could see more of those young backup defensive backs as a result of injuries suffered by Buckeye starters.
Most notably, senior free safety Josh Proctor suffered a worrisome shoulder injury and top cornerback Sevyn Banks is likewise avoiding action.
Ohio State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
When you think about it, it is absurd that quarterback CJ Stroud finished the game against Minnesota with 294 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception.
His first half was nervy. But don't blame him for it: he was on the road, against a Big Ten team, in his first career start, in rainy weather.
To be fair, Stroud also has it easy because he has two future NFL stars to throw to in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Both receivers will feast on a Duck secondary that has regressed since the departures of its former two top cornerbacks, Thomas Graham and Deommodore Lenoir.
Stroud can run when he wants to. But he likes to stay in the pocket. His comfort in the pocket will skyrocket if Oregon All-American defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux is unable to play. Thibodeaux's status is uncertain due to an injury to his lower leg, which is obviously an important part of the body for a defensive end because he relies on his legs for explosion out of his stance.
The Buckeye offensive line is deep, experienced, and very talented, for which reason the Buckeyes last week accomplished 201 rushing yards on 7.7 YPC despite suffering unexpectedly high levels of positional discontinuity -- whereas personnel and positional consistency is so important for an offensive line -- and an injury to the starting center.
This massive unit will help the Buckeye run game add balance to its offense against a rather inexperienced Duck group of linebackers that may miss the rare senior of the group, Dru Smith, due to his injured knee.
The Verdict
A physical but also creative Oregon offense in Moorhead's second year as offensive coordinator will utilize its pass-catching talent, its stacked running back group, and its experienced mobile quarterback to successfully navigate a Buckeye defense suffering growing pains throughout its back seven.
Oregon's back seven, too, will struggle against the Buckeyes' massive rushing attack and NFL-ready wide receivers, which will support and sustain CJ Stroud's continued growth.
Best Bet: Over 63.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, September 11, 2021 at noon ET (FOX) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus
Week 2 Trap
In recommending that you tail my play on this game, I am asking that you do not fall for the trap that many college football bettors fall into.
During Week 1's games, bettors are eager to see how the different players and teams look.
They forget, though, that the season opener is one game with its own unique set of circumstances (rust, new playbooks, player inexperience, extra preparation time, etc.) in addition to the variables that accompany every game.
As a result, they attach too much significance to Week 1 and overreact with respect to betting on Week 2's games.
We avoid falling into this trap of overreaction by taking a step back from Week 1. We don't want to forget what happened in Week 1, but we want to also adopt a broader perspective.
Oregon's "Stagnant" Offense
After Oregon slid past heavily underdogged Fresno State in Week 1, many Oregon fans and beat writers are showing panic.
If this game against the Bulldogs were the only thing that Ducks supporters could point to as a source of expectations for the rest of their season, then their pessimism might be somewhat less unreasonable.
To be fair, it is true that the Duck offense stagnated and, until clutch time, likely inspired boredom in every insouciant observer.
Expecting Oregon's offense to repeat its lackluster performance in Week 2 is unjustifiable for two reasons: such an expectation overlooks Oregon's offseason expectations for its offense and it overlooks Oregon's early-season strategy.
Regarding the latter, it is reasonable to expect that the Ducks were looking ahead. After all, there's a reason bettors classify games such as Oregon's Week 1 contest as "look-ahead" games.
The Ducks did not want to reveal their cards against a three-touchdown underdog, but wanted to save their secrets and surprises for prestigious Ohio State.
We see these underperformances against bad teams followed by an ensuing uptick in competitive quality all the time in sports. One recent example is Florida losing to LSU last year and then looking vastly more competitive and competent against Alabama.
Joe Moorhead
Regarding Oregon's offseason expectations on offense, these revolve partly around offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead.
The former Penn State offensive coordinator is now in Year 2 with Oregon. Year 2 is huge: his offense has adopted and learned more of his playbook and has gained a significantly stronger comfort with and understanding of the offense that Moorhead wants to run.
Week 1 saw a lot of boring power runs and these do reflect Mario Cristobal's long-standing vision for a more physical Duck offense.
If all Oregon were to do in Week 2 was run up the middle with its powerful one-two punch at running back, then sure, one could concoct a pro-Ohio State narrative revolving around the lack of physicality and experience especially on the right side of Oregon's offensive line relative to Minnesota's and the increased experience that the "new" Buckeye linebacking corps gained after Week 1.
This might be your line of thinking if you fell into the aforementioned trap.
But not only are the Ducks physical -- led by decorated, multi-time 1,000-yard rusher CJ Verdell and his mate Travis Dye, who averages nearly six YPC in his Duck career. They are also creative.
This is where Moorhead comes in: as evident in his Penn State days, Moorhead's offense likes to feature verticality in its passing attack that stretches the field, utilization of talented tight ends, mobile quarterbacks, RPOs, and a versatile group of running backs.
With veteran Anthony Brown, talented pass-catchers, and a stacked group of running backs that, beyond Verdell and Dye, features former highly-ranked recruits listed as both running back and wide receiver because they can also catch passes, the Ducks own the desired personnel for Moorhead.
Oregon's offense will be more dangerous than Minnesota's not only because of individual player quality -- exhibiting a depth far beyond that which the Golden Gophers showed in their overdependence on a single running back -- but because of the way in which creativity complements physicality under Moorhead and Cristobal.
Buckeye Defense: Linebackers and Secondary
"Over" bettors may worry that the Ducks will try to dominate time of possession and be successful in doing so, like the Gophers did with their overwhelming advantage in number of plays run. The worry here is that too much clock will drain, which is bad for an "over."
But one reason why that Gopher-Buckeye game was so high-scoring and one reason why the Gophers ran so many more plays was that Ohio State repeatedly gained quick touchdowns.
Quick touchdowns are obviously great for an "over" and I will get into Ohio State's offense in a bit.
Oregon's offense is in a great spot in Week 2 also because of the massive turnover in Ohio State's linebacking group and in the youth of Ohio State's secondary.
While that youth is primarily focused in the backups, we could see more of those young backup defensive backs as a result of injuries suffered by Buckeye starters.
Most notably, senior free safety Josh Proctor suffered a worrisome shoulder injury and top cornerback Sevyn Banks is likewise avoiding action.
Ohio State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
When you think about it, it is absurd that quarterback CJ Stroud finished the game against Minnesota with 294 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception.
His first half was nervy. But don't blame him for it: he was on the road, against a Big Ten team, in his first career start, in rainy weather.
To be fair, Stroud also has it easy because he has two future NFL stars to throw to in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Both receivers will feast on a Duck secondary that has regressed since the departures of its former two top cornerbacks, Thomas Graham and Deommodore Lenoir.
Stroud can run when he wants to. But he likes to stay in the pocket. His comfort in the pocket will skyrocket if Oregon All-American defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux is unable to play. Thibodeaux's status is uncertain due to an injury to his lower leg, which is obviously an important part of the body for a defensive end because he relies on his legs for explosion out of his stance.
The Buckeye offensive line is deep, experienced, and very talented, for which reason the Buckeyes last week accomplished 201 rushing yards on 7.7 YPC despite suffering unexpectedly high levels of positional discontinuity -- whereas personnel and positional consistency is so important for an offensive line -- and an injury to the starting center.
This massive unit will help the Buckeye run game add balance to its offense against a rather inexperienced Duck group of linebackers that may miss the rare senior of the group, Dru Smith, due to his injured knee.
The Verdict
A physical but also creative Oregon offense in Moorhead's second year as offensive coordinator will utilize its pass-catching talent, its stacked running back group, and its experienced mobile quarterback to successfully navigate a Buckeye defense suffering growing pains throughout its back seven.
Oregon's back seven, too, will struggle against the Buckeyes' massive rushing attack and NFL-ready wide receivers, which will support and sustain CJ Stroud's continued growth.
Best Bet: Over 63.5 at -110 with BetOnline
