Oregon vs. Michigan College Football Week 10 Picks
Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, November 2, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Michigan Stadium
What Michigan's Offense Needs to Do
The ways in which Michigan's offense can succeed are limited by its deficient pass attack. It lacks a stable and competent option at quarterback.
Initially, Davis Warren was the starter. He was benched for Alex Orji, who was, heading into last week's game, benched so that Warren could return as the starter.
Warren is at most going to be a tiny reason why Michigan wins a football game.
On offense, the Wolverines will need their rush attack to thrive.
Oregon's Improved Run Defense
In the beginning of the season, a good case could be made for the outlook of Michigan's rush attack in this game.
The Ducks' run defense struggled. After facing Boise State, it ranked outside the top 100, as measured by opposing rush yards allowed per game.
Given this atrocious start, pointing out that Oregon's run defense currently ranks above average in stopping the run constitutes a form of praise for it.
It's not like Boise State is uniquely special. The Ducks have been well-tested.
When they faced Ohio State and its impressively experienced offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who has been labeled as a genius, they faced a lethal duo in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon
Judkins, who average around eight and seven YPC, respectively..
They limited Judkins to 23 rushing yards on 2.1 YPC. While they did concede one very long rushing gain to Henderson, they otherwise held him to fewer than four YPC.
Oregon's Run Defense Makes Needed Stops
Oregon's run defense still concedes some undesirable gains, but it is underrated because the rushing yards it gives up are mostly empty ones.
To explain what I mean, consider a drive against Purdue in which the Boilermakers used exclusively their rush attack to progress to Oregon's 40 yard-line.
After conceding a five-yard run, Oregon's defense tackled Purdue's ball-carrier five yards behind the line of scrimmage. The Ducks then forced an incomplete pass, inducing Purdue to punt.
Partly because it does a terrific job of creating losses behind the line of scrimmage, Oregon's defense reliably stops drives even if it gives up some rushing yards along the way.
The Ducks' defense does this even when it faces more competent quarterbacking, such as from Illinois' Luke Altmyer, than it will today.
Oregon owns one of the nation's highest-ranked pass defenses largely because of the overall speed of its defense, the strong technique of its cornerbacks, and the consistent pursuit of its pass rush.
The Ducks just picked off Altmyer twice and rank toward the top in sack percentage because they have effective ball-hawkers in their secondary and defensive linemen like Derrick Harmon who boast a good motor.
Opposing offenses struggle to pass at all against Oregon's defense, which puts added pressure on their rush attack.
It is evident why two straight offenses, Purdue's and most recently Illinois', have failed to reach double digits against the Ducks.
A team like Michigan will be especially easy for Oregon's defense to stop because the Wolverines pose such a negligible threat at quarterback that the Ducks can devote extra focus to their ground game in order to prevent Michigan from sustaining drives and to allow their offense to wear down Michigan's defense.
Michigan's Vulnerable Run Defense
Michigan's run defense is vulnerable even to mediocre-to-poor rush attacks.
Most recently, Michigan State's Nate Carter ran for a season-high 118 rushing yards on 6.2 YPC, which are close to two more YPC than his season average.
The Wolverines are consistently giving up around 20 points per game largely because of what opposing rush attacks accomplish and despite the lower general quality of the ground games and pass attacks that they encounter.
Michigan, for example, gave up 21 and 17 points to Illinois and Michigan State, respectively, despite the fact that both of the latter teams rank far in the bottom half in rush offense and fail to sniff the quality of Oregon's pass attack.
Oregon's Balanced Offense
The Ducks boast a lethal two-dimensional offense that is continually clicking, having exceeded 30 points in each of their last seven games.
Behind what is annually a top-level offensive line, one that was a Joe Moore Award finalist last year, starting running back Jordan James is averaging 5.9 YPC.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is completing an absurd 77 percent of his passes.
Gabriel's accurate ball placement, his offense's intricate play designs, and the catch-in-traffic and route-running abilities of his wide receivers contribute to the high quality of Oregon's pass attack.
Overall, this is an offense that scored over 30 points against an Ohio State team that ranks toward the very top in scoring defense.
Oregon's offense will form a similarly tough challenge that Texas, which coasted against Michigan with a 31-point output, did.
Takeaway
This is an Oregon team that consistently exceeds 30 points in their games while limiting opponents to single digits. It is a reasonable ask for the Ducks to win by more than three touchdowns.
Led by consistent drive-sustaining big-play threats like Gabriel and James, Oregon has the firepower to create a quick lead, which will put added pressure on Michigan's deficient pass attack to make plays.
When pressed, Michigan's quarterback will throw interceptions against Oregon's defense, which will make it easier for the Ducks to achieve a higher point total.
The Ducks will also wear down an already vulnerable Michigan defense, further creating the potential for an even bigger blowout than imagined.
Best Bet: Oregon
Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, November 2, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Michigan Stadium
What Michigan's Offense Needs to Do
The ways in which Michigan's offense can succeed are limited by its deficient pass attack. It lacks a stable and competent option at quarterback.
Initially, Davis Warren was the starter. He was benched for Alex Orji, who was, heading into last week's game, benched so that Warren could return as the starter.
Warren is at most going to be a tiny reason why Michigan wins a football game.
On offense, the Wolverines will need their rush attack to thrive.
Oregon's Improved Run Defense
In the beginning of the season, a good case could be made for the outlook of Michigan's rush attack in this game.
The Ducks' run defense struggled. After facing Boise State, it ranked outside the top 100, as measured by opposing rush yards allowed per game.
Given this atrocious start, pointing out that Oregon's run defense currently ranks above average in stopping the run constitutes a form of praise for it.
It's not like Boise State is uniquely special. The Ducks have been well-tested.
When they faced Ohio State and its impressively experienced offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who has been labeled as a genius, they faced a lethal duo in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon
Judkins, who average around eight and seven YPC, respectively..
They limited Judkins to 23 rushing yards on 2.1 YPC. While they did concede one very long rushing gain to Henderson, they otherwise held him to fewer than four YPC.
Oregon's Run Defense Makes Needed Stops
Oregon's run defense still concedes some undesirable gains, but it is underrated because the rushing yards it gives up are mostly empty ones.
To explain what I mean, consider a drive against Purdue in which the Boilermakers used exclusively their rush attack to progress to Oregon's 40 yard-line.
After conceding a five-yard run, Oregon's defense tackled Purdue's ball-carrier five yards behind the line of scrimmage. The Ducks then forced an incomplete pass, inducing Purdue to punt.
Partly because it does a terrific job of creating losses behind the line of scrimmage, Oregon's defense reliably stops drives even if it gives up some rushing yards along the way.
The Ducks' defense does this even when it faces more competent quarterbacking, such as from Illinois' Luke Altmyer, than it will today.
Oregon owns one of the nation's highest-ranked pass defenses largely because of the overall speed of its defense, the strong technique of its cornerbacks, and the consistent pursuit of its pass rush.
The Ducks just picked off Altmyer twice and rank toward the top in sack percentage because they have effective ball-hawkers in their secondary and defensive linemen like Derrick Harmon who boast a good motor.
Opposing offenses struggle to pass at all against Oregon's defense, which puts added pressure on their rush attack.
It is evident why two straight offenses, Purdue's and most recently Illinois', have failed to reach double digits against the Ducks.
A team like Michigan will be especially easy for Oregon's defense to stop because the Wolverines pose such a negligible threat at quarterback that the Ducks can devote extra focus to their ground game in order to prevent Michigan from sustaining drives and to allow their offense to wear down Michigan's defense.
Michigan's Vulnerable Run Defense
Michigan's run defense is vulnerable even to mediocre-to-poor rush attacks.
Most recently, Michigan State's Nate Carter ran for a season-high 118 rushing yards on 6.2 YPC, which are close to two more YPC than his season average.
The Wolverines are consistently giving up around 20 points per game largely because of what opposing rush attacks accomplish and despite the lower general quality of the ground games and pass attacks that they encounter.
Michigan, for example, gave up 21 and 17 points to Illinois and Michigan State, respectively, despite the fact that both of the latter teams rank far in the bottom half in rush offense and fail to sniff the quality of Oregon's pass attack.
Oregon's Balanced Offense
The Ducks boast a lethal two-dimensional offense that is continually clicking, having exceeded 30 points in each of their last seven games.
Behind what is annually a top-level offensive line, one that was a Joe Moore Award finalist last year, starting running back Jordan James is averaging 5.9 YPC.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is completing an absurd 77 percent of his passes.
Gabriel's accurate ball placement, his offense's intricate play designs, and the catch-in-traffic and route-running abilities of his wide receivers contribute to the high quality of Oregon's pass attack.
Overall, this is an offense that scored over 30 points against an Ohio State team that ranks toward the very top in scoring defense.
Oregon's offense will form a similarly tough challenge that Texas, which coasted against Michigan with a 31-point output, did.
Takeaway
This is an Oregon team that consistently exceeds 30 points in their games while limiting opponents to single digits. It is a reasonable ask for the Ducks to win by more than three touchdowns.
Led by consistent drive-sustaining big-play threats like Gabriel and James, Oregon has the firepower to create a quick lead, which will put added pressure on Michigan's deficient pass attack to make plays.
When pressed, Michigan's quarterback will throw interceptions against Oregon's defense, which will make it easier for the Ducks to achieve a higher point total.
The Ducks will also wear down an already vulnerable Michigan defense, further creating the potential for an even bigger blowout than imagined.
Best Bet: Oregon
