Oregon St. vs. Florida Las Vegas Bowl Top Picks: Gators Have Oregon State on Upset Alert
Oregon State Beavers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, December 17, 2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas
My favorite bet for this game is the spread.
Best Bet: Gators +10 at -110 with BetOnline
Top Storyline: Florida's Supposed Roster Depletion
The major talking point for this bowl game is Florida's mini-exodus of players.
Overall, around 15 Gator players have entered the transfer portal, and a few more have declared for the NFL Draft.
This item of information has sent many bettors rushing to bet on Oregon State despite the spread being ridiculously high -- the Beavers are double-digit favorites according to the Oddsboard.
Further Considerations
But three considerations should deter bettors from investing in Oregon State as a result of Florida's mini-exodus.
These three considerations are: talent, motivation, and quarterback.
The Gators still have plenty of talent. Annually, according to 247sports, they rank top-20 nationally in recruiting.
The number of players leaving or planning to leave has also created a false impression of the number of starter-caliber players who Florida will deploy in this game.
Defensive Talent
In terms of roster depletion, the discussion has focused on Florida's defense.
But let's compare the team's opening day depth chart (against Utah) to its current depth chart (updated as of December 11).
Two starters and one backup are starting on the defensive line.
One of these starters is the massive and disruptive Gervon Dexter, who decided to play in the Las Vegas Bowl despite declaring for the NFL Draft.
His best asset is run defense, so his forcefulness in the interior will be important to Florida's endeavor to limit the strength of Oregon State's offense, which is running the ball.
At linebacker, Florida starts two backups, although one, Antwaun Powell-Ryland, has been starting for several weeks since the starter was dismissed from the team.
In the secondary, the Gators are still playing all their starters -- cornerback Jaydon Hill regained his starting position soon after the season opener.
So, the defense is in good shape.
Anthony Who?
Florida's starting quarterback has departed for the NFL Draft, although his professional prospects are laughable, and he'll simply end up disappointing some team that likes him just for his size and arm strength.
Anthony Richardson's replacement is going to be an auto-upgrade as a passer.
Any of his backup quarterbacks could have completed more than nine of 27 pass attempts in the team's tight loss at Florida State.
Richardson's inaccuracy was a season-long problem.
Despite optimists suggesting that he improved, he finished the season with a completion percentage of just over 50.
Florida almost forced ranked Florida State into overtime despite Richardson's ineptitude as a passer.
Jack Miller and Company
Former four-star recruit Jack Miller will start in Richardson's place.
Richardson transferred from Ohio State where he got minimal playing time.
He's been involved in team preparations and is obviously preparing to start the Las Vegas Bowl.
Miller will have plenty of wide receiver talent to help him out as Florida will be healthier at wide receiver than it was against Florida State.
Foremost is leading pass-catcher Ricky Pearsall.
Also, Oregon State has an anemic pass rush, as evidenced by its bottom-feeder sack rate, which repeatedly allows opposing quarterbacks to have excessive time to throw.
So, while the Beaver cornerbacks receive some hype, they will have to spend too much time on pass plays trying to contain Florida's wide receivers.
Importance of Florida's Ground Game
Florida repeatedly shows -- the Florida State game is one example -- that it can remain competitive against favored opponents by using its top-caliber rush attack to make up for deficient passing.
The Gators' top running backs are available for this game: Montrell Johnson with his 5.7 YPC and Trevor Etienne with his 6.4 YPC.
With these gems, the Gators are a run-first team.
So, while they will get more support than usual from their pass attack, their rush attack's success will be seminal to their prospects of winning.
Beaver Run Defense
It follows that a key question is whether the Beaver run defense can stop Florida's rush attack?
Oregon State faced the second-, third-, and fifth-leading running backs in the conference.
The Beavers ducked Cal's running back in a blowout win, allowed Arizona State's to exceed 100 yards on 13 carries, and allowed Oregon's running back duo to accrue 133 rushing yards on 29 carries.
Florida's rush attack will pose a uniquely tough challenge to the Beavers, especially since they didn't have to play Oregon State.
Oregon State's Pass Attack Outlook
Both Florida on defense and Oregon State on offense are missing important players -- the Gators miss run-stopper Ventrell Miller while the Beavers miss future NFL tight end Luke Musgrave.
Similar to Florida, Oregon State is a unequivocally run-first team.
Beaver quarterback Ben Gulbranson is listed as a freshman and does not have that much more experience than his Gator counterpart.
Gulbranson has thrown eight touchdowns to five interceptions.
Most recently, he was 6-of-13 for 60 yards and two interceptions against Oregon.
Florida's Run Defense
Too much gets made of Florida's run defense rankings.
The Gators have struggled substantially against mobile quarterbacks, such as Seminole Jordan Travis, but Oregon State's quarterback is not the running type.
Occasional big runs notwithstanding -- such as when Aggie Devon Achane ran for 122 rushing yards with 65 coming on a single run -- Florida's defense has consistently not been the porous unit that people claim it to be against the run
Motivation Angle
In their bowl game assignment, Oregon State is getting a 6-6 opponent despite beating highly-ranked Oregon in its regular season finale.
Florida, meanwhile, has starting positions up for grabs as the transfer portal and NFL Draft create a unique number of opportunities for a number of talented players.
Overall, the Gators have a lot to gain from performing well in the Las Vegas Bowl.
The Verdict
Expect a motivated and talented Gator squad to rely primarily on offense, especially its rush attack and combination of pass protection, more competent passing, and wide receiver ability, to overwhelm the Beavers.
Oregon State, with some big plays especially on the ground, will add to the scoring.
For the above reasons, invest in Florida to cover and the "over" to hit.
Best Bet: Over 53 at -110 with BetOnline
Oregon State Beavers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, December 17, 2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas
My favorite bet for this game is the spread.
Best Bet: Gators +10 at -110 with BetOnline
Top Storyline: Florida's Supposed Roster Depletion
The major talking point for this bowl game is Florida's mini-exodus of players.
Overall, around 15 Gator players have entered the transfer portal, and a few more have declared for the NFL Draft.
This item of information has sent many bettors rushing to bet on Oregon State despite the spread being ridiculously high -- the Beavers are double-digit favorites according to the Oddsboard.
Further Considerations
But three considerations should deter bettors from investing in Oregon State as a result of Florida's mini-exodus.
These three considerations are: talent, motivation, and quarterback.
The Gators still have plenty of talent. Annually, according to 247sports, they rank top-20 nationally in recruiting.
The number of players leaving or planning to leave has also created a false impression of the number of starter-caliber players who Florida will deploy in this game.
Defensive Talent
In terms of roster depletion, the discussion has focused on Florida's defense.
But let's compare the team's opening day depth chart (against Utah) to its current depth chart (updated as of December 11).
Two starters and one backup are starting on the defensive line.
One of these starters is the massive and disruptive Gervon Dexter, who decided to play in the Las Vegas Bowl despite declaring for the NFL Draft.
His best asset is run defense, so his forcefulness in the interior will be important to Florida's endeavor to limit the strength of Oregon State's offense, which is running the ball.
At linebacker, Florida starts two backups, although one, Antwaun Powell-Ryland, has been starting for several weeks since the starter was dismissed from the team.
In the secondary, the Gators are still playing all their starters -- cornerback Jaydon Hill regained his starting position soon after the season opener.
So, the defense is in good shape.
Anthony Who?
Florida's starting quarterback has departed for the NFL Draft, although his professional prospects are laughable, and he'll simply end up disappointing some team that likes him just for his size and arm strength.
Anthony Richardson's replacement is going to be an auto-upgrade as a passer.
Any of his backup quarterbacks could have completed more than nine of 27 pass attempts in the team's tight loss at Florida State.
Richardson's inaccuracy was a season-long problem.
Despite optimists suggesting that he improved, he finished the season with a completion percentage of just over 50.
Florida almost forced ranked Florida State into overtime despite Richardson's ineptitude as a passer.
Jack Miller and Company
Former four-star recruit Jack Miller will start in Richardson's place.
Richardson transferred from Ohio State where he got minimal playing time.
He's been involved in team preparations and is obviously preparing to start the Las Vegas Bowl.
Miller will have plenty of wide receiver talent to help him out as Florida will be healthier at wide receiver than it was against Florida State.
Foremost is leading pass-catcher Ricky Pearsall.
Also, Oregon State has an anemic pass rush, as evidenced by its bottom-feeder sack rate, which repeatedly allows opposing quarterbacks to have excessive time to throw.
So, while the Beaver cornerbacks receive some hype, they will have to spend too much time on pass plays trying to contain Florida's wide receivers.
Importance of Florida's Ground Game
Florida repeatedly shows -- the Florida State game is one example -- that it can remain competitive against favored opponents by using its top-caliber rush attack to make up for deficient passing.
The Gators' top running backs are available for this game: Montrell Johnson with his 5.7 YPC and Trevor Etienne with his 6.4 YPC.
With these gems, the Gators are a run-first team.
So, while they will get more support than usual from their pass attack, their rush attack's success will be seminal to their prospects of winning.
Beaver Run Defense
It follows that a key question is whether the Beaver run defense can stop Florida's rush attack?
Oregon State faced the second-, third-, and fifth-leading running backs in the conference.
The Beavers ducked Cal's running back in a blowout win, allowed Arizona State's to exceed 100 yards on 13 carries, and allowed Oregon's running back duo to accrue 133 rushing yards on 29 carries.
Florida's rush attack will pose a uniquely tough challenge to the Beavers, especially since they didn't have to play Oregon State.
Oregon State's Pass Attack Outlook
Both Florida on defense and Oregon State on offense are missing important players -- the Gators miss run-stopper Ventrell Miller while the Beavers miss future NFL tight end Luke Musgrave.
Similar to Florida, Oregon State is a unequivocally run-first team.
Beaver quarterback Ben Gulbranson is listed as a freshman and does not have that much more experience than his Gator counterpart.
Gulbranson has thrown eight touchdowns to five interceptions.
Most recently, he was 6-of-13 for 60 yards and two interceptions against Oregon.
Florida's Run Defense
Too much gets made of Florida's run defense rankings.
The Gators have struggled substantially against mobile quarterbacks, such as Seminole Jordan Travis, but Oregon State's quarterback is not the running type.
Occasional big runs notwithstanding -- such as when Aggie Devon Achane ran for 122 rushing yards with 65 coming on a single run -- Florida's defense has consistently not been the porous unit that people claim it to be against the run
Motivation Angle
In their bowl game assignment, Oregon State is getting a 6-6 opponent despite beating highly-ranked Oregon in its regular season finale.
Florida, meanwhile, has starting positions up for grabs as the transfer portal and NFL Draft create a unique number of opportunities for a number of talented players.
Overall, the Gators have a lot to gain from performing well in the Las Vegas Bowl.
The Verdict
Expect a motivated and talented Gator squad to rely primarily on offense, especially its rush attack and combination of pass protection, more competent passing, and wide receiver ability, to overwhelm the Beavers.
Oregon State, with some big plays especially on the ground, will add to the scoring.
For the above reasons, invest in Florida to cover and the "over" to hit.
Best Bet: Over 53 at -110 with BetOnline
