Opinion: Ole Miss @ LSU

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Before you call me a homer - I have a an even betting history for AND against Ole Miss. Whatever makes my wallet fatter.

On a pretty good run in CFB, won my last couple posted and wanted to let the forum know my thoughts on this game.


Ole Miss has all the advantages in this game:

- Night game switched to 2:30pm start. I'll be in Baton Rouge boozing and cheering the Rebels, and it's going to cut into my tailgating time. However, this is HUGE for the Rebels. Less fan involvement = greater chance of winning. Death Valley is a nightmare at night.

-SO glad LSU came back against Troy. Hearing reports that the players were pissed at playcalling and the way things were being managed and simply said "We're better than Troy and we're gonna win this game." LSU started playing how they should but that takes a lot of guts and emotion IMO. They did it without fan support as well as many of the fans left when they were down 31-3. If LSU had lost they've be pissed off right now, but the way it stands I can see them being emotionally drained.

- IMO Ole Miss should be riding a wave of momentum coming into this game. Fresh off a 59-0 thrashing of UL Monroe in which we finally committed zero turnovers. Meanwhile the 530 total yards to 130 total yards was just sickening.

-Our defensive line should really force Jarrett Lee into some bad situations. I am hearing Jordan Jefferson may get some snaps?, but I doubt many. Our DB's are our weakness but you don't have to have outstanding DB's to pick Mr. Lee off. We know LSU has QB issues so that advantage goes to the Rebels here....

-Finally, this is OUR game. Ole Miss plays LSU close every friggin year. This and the Mississippi State game are the ones the team cares about. Ole Miss is 8-2 ATS against LSU the last 10......


Decent sized bet on Ole Miss +4.5 and a smaller one on the ML.

:shake:
 
Sorry I didn't mention the coaching edge, that is a given though.

Miles vs. Nutt is no contest........


VK get on Ole Miss they win SU.
 
RambleOn said:
- IMO Ole Miss should be riding a wave of momentum coming into this game. Fresh off a 59-0 thrashing of UL Monroe in which we finally committed zero turnovers. Meanwhile the 530 total yards to 130 total yards was just sickening.
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Any guy who repeatedly refers to a team as "WE" is clearly a homer..

But you make some good points...:4_12_12: Nice writeup bro.:shake:
 
GL Ramble..

I was at the Ole Miss/LSU game at Death Valley back in 2002 (I think?). It was cold and wet, but was one of the best atmospheres/tailgating scenes I've ever experienced. I believe Eli Manning led Ole Miss to victory, hopefully history repeats itself for you.
 
You fucking homer!

You list some valid points above, and Hatch might be back for this game...

but I hope he's not ;) because I'm on Ole Piss +5.5

GL to us
 
I agree totally, Ramble. This one is Ole Miss or pass. Everything (the line, the situation, the matchup) is strongly in favor of your boys. Don't know if I will be betting it, but I really think the Rebs should win this one.
 
Also, there's not much better of a matchup than Houston Nutt v. an aggressive defense. That's his bread and butter: Wild Rebel, draws, screens, and just downright dirty trick plays is his style of offense and I really think it will get LSU WAY off the defensive scheme they're used to playing. They had Bama's D on their toes all game, and never let them settle in. Same will go for LSU this weekend. I also think that The Hat will have a more conservative, RUN RUN RUN approach to this game as a form of damage control for Lee. If Ole Miss can stop Charles and make Lee pass 20-25 times and make the inevitable mistakes, they have a great chance of the SU W.
Hotty Toddy...
 
TopDaddy said:
Also, there's not much better of a matchup than Houston Nutt v. an aggressive defense. That's his bread and butter: Wild Rebel, draws, screens, and just downright dirty trick plays is his style of offense and I really think it will get LSU WAY off the defensive scheme they're used to playing. They had Bama's D on their toes all game, and never let them settle in. Same will go for LSU this weekend. I also think that The Hat will have a more conservative, RUN RUN RUN approach to this game as a form of damage control for Lee. If Ole Miss can stop Charles and make Lee pass 20-25 times and make the inevitable mistakes, they have a great chance of the SU W.
Hotty Toddy...
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I haven't considered LSU's defense aggressive since Muschamp left for Auburn. Miles will not run because Crowton calls the offensive plays, and Crowton loves to pass. Damage control has not been a priority this year in any game, so I don't know why they would start now. I mean Jesus, Lee cannot get through Tulane or Troy without a pick six much less UGA, Auburn, or Bama.
 
Blue_Chip said:
I haven't considered LSU's defense aggressive since Muschamp left for Auburn. Miles will not run because Crowton calls the offensive plays, and Crowton loves to pass. Damage control has not been a priority this year in any game, so I don't know why they would start now. I mean Jesus, Lee cannot get through Tulane or Troy without a pick six much less UGA, Auburn, or Bama.
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Damage control is necessary because Les has not lost this many games in his stay at LSU, and the natives aren't used to losing as of late, and there's still three games left to play. They haven't worried about damage control before, because it's been all about winning pretty, now it's just about winning. When you get to that point, it gets conservative on the offensive side of the ball.

No, LSU's defense is not as aggressive as in recent years when they had Steltz, Chevis Jackson, and Zenon who could play tight man coverage on a blitz, but they still have a relatively aggressive D who will overpersue the ball like it's their job, given the correct offensive scheme. They were aggressive with South Carolina and it almost bit them, and I feel they'll have the same gameplan against another offense that they don't respect in Ole Miss. If the Rebs can make them overpursue on misdirections and counters, I feel they've got a good shot.

I may be wrong about this, but I just see Miles in some sort of a panic mode because this is new ground for him. Conservative on offense due to the QB situation, and aggressive on defense due to a lack of offense for the Rebels.
 
TopDaddy said:
Damage control is necessary because Les has not lost this many games in his stay at LSU, and the natives aren't used to losing as of late, and there's still three games left to play. They haven't worried about damage control before, because it's been all about winning pretty, now it's just about winning. When you get to that point, it gets conservative on the offensive side of the ball.

No, LSU's defense is not as aggressive as in recent years when they had Steltz, Chevis Jackson, and Zenon who could play tight man coverage on a blitz, but they still have a relatively aggressive D who will overpersue the ball like it's their job, given the correct offensive scheme. They were aggressive with South Carolina and it almost bit them, and I feel they'll have the same gameplan against another offense that they don't respect in Ole Miss. If the Rebs can make them overpursue on misdirections and counters, I feel they've got a good shot.

I may be wrong about this, but I just see Miles in some sort of a panic mode because this is new ground for him. Conservative on offense due to the QB situation, and aggressive on defense due to a lack of offense for the Rebels.
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Nice post. :shake:
 
TopDaddy said:
I may be wrong about this, but I just see Miles in some sort of a panic mode because this is new ground for him. Conservative on offense due to the QB situation, and aggressive on defense due to a lack of offense for the Rebels.
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Les has lost two games every season he has been at LSU. I know what you are getting at though seeing as how they already have two losses with two conference games to go before their bowl game. I still do not think Miles is a conservative guy regardless of the situation. LSU won with :02 left against Auburn last year. LSU went for it 4 or 5 times on 4th down against Fla last year and took the lead with less than 2:00 to go in that game. Miles aggressive (risky) play calling is a gamble and like all gambles regression sets in.

Miles loves Lee. I think this gets overlooked by many. Miles has a man-crush on Jarrett Lee, and Lee will not lose the starting role until influential people lean on Miles. Lee will make mistakes but Miles will continue to commend Lee for his play and focus on WRs dropping passes more than Lee throwing pick sixes (and the WRs do drop passes at an alarming rate).

We have different reasonings but arrive at the same play, so good luck to us, topdaddy.
 
Blue_Chip said:
Les has lost two games every season he has been at LSU. I know what you are getting at though seeing as how they already have two losses with two conference games to go before their bowl game. I still do not think Miles is a conservative guy regardless of the situation. LSU won with :02 left against Auburn last year. LSU went for it 4 or 5 times on 4th down against Fla last year and took the lead with less than 2:00 to go in that game. Miles aggressive (risky) play calling is a gamble and like all gambles regression sets in.

Miles loves Lee. I think this gets overlooked by many. Miles has a man-crush on Jarrett Lee, and Lee will not lose the starting role until influential people lean on Miles. Lee will make mistakes but Miles will continue to commend Lee for his play and focus on WRs dropping passes more than Lee throwing pick sixes (and the WRs do drop passes at an alarming rate).

We have different reasonings but arrive at the same play, so good luck to us, topdaddy.
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Just splitting hairs here, but I was saying it's new ground for Miles because he's already got 3 losses, all in conference, neither of which he's had in his stay at LSU.
And simply speaking statistically, by going conservative with Lee, you almost take 7 points off your opponent's score. Jarrett Lee has the tools to be a great quarterback, but until he gets his confidence under him, if they are going to stay the course, his wideouts better either learn how to catch it no matter where it's thrown, or learn to tackle better.

Best of luck to you, too this weekend, Blue...
 
Sunday is a great day to be a Rebel! Hotty Toddy!!! :smiley_acbe::cheers:

money; :5_5_138::11_12_13::smiley_acbk::spank:
 
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