reNew Orleans
Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
I went 1-4 -3.2 Units during ST if you were curious.
3rd season of MLB. My 1st year was nice, 2nd year I quit about 2-2.5 months in because I started a downward spiral. Typically only bet dogs/totals with a few 1st 5 innings thrown in but may bet those more this year. Im going to be starting off with bookmaker then when I deposit into Matchbook Ill be able to have the good lines... and its going to be an eternity that happens
Plays:
Sunday (4/5):
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 4.5 -105 1st 5 (Lowe v. Myers) W
Atlanta Braves +118 W
Simply put Lowe's #s are great vs this Phillies lineup, minus Utley. Myers #s aren't terrible but Chipper and McCann have had success vs him. He did come in 30 lbs lighter and seems hes back mentally as well but he still walks guys. Id be a little concerned about the later innings but Lowe can usually give a solid 7 and I'm not worried at all about the backend of the Braves bullpen. Doubt the Braves will be so awful on the road again this year (29-52 last year). Myers worse during the night, Lowe better during the Day.
Just a side note - Ive read Francoeur has worked on his approach at the plate and its working for him being more selective, but I want to see this happen for myself during the year. Thatd be a huge boost to that team, plus once Schafer moves to leadoff the Braves could regain the throne of the NL East.
Monday (4/6):
New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds OVER 7 -120 (Santana v. Harang) L
Cincinnati Reds +145 L
After getting to look into some of these games in more detail I couldnt pass up the opportunity to bet an over of only 7 when both these teams have lit up the opposing pitchers. Maybe not lit up but more than enough guys have given Santana trouble and when he misses he gives up those HRs and this is a hitters park. Id like a little better odds on the Reds and dont feel all that comfortable backing Harang since a few guys give him the fits themselves. Love taking +money... thats all.
Arizona Diamondbacks RL -1.5 +135 (Webb v. Cook)
I HATE RLs... hate em but think the value's there. Cooks #s in the past arent very good vs the Rockies but last year he was 3-0 in 4 starts vs the Rockies with a 3.07 ERA and .89 WHIP. Hitters hit .191 also. One of those guys Holliday was 4-10 and hes gone. Hawpe (3/9, 3 BB/4K) and Barmes (3/6, 1K) did well vs him last year. Helton who has great career #s vs Webb struggled outside of his one HR in 9 ABs. Younger lineup, Webb usually starts the season off strong, think the bullpen can handle the Rockies late as well, may be down a few too many runs. Avoided the over based on Webbs dominance last year.
Cook visiting Chase is bad news with a 6.17 and 1.89 ERA/WHIP. Drew (5/8) and Chris Young (3/5) started to figure him out last year and Snyder/Tracy rip this guy apart with Snyder 12/21 (.515) and Tracy 17/33 (.571) lifetime avgs.
Texas Rangers +114 (Millwood v. Lee) W
Youve seen the #s everywhere. Lee has a 6.42/1.55 ERA and WHIP vs the Rangers. Even better is the 8.56/1.68 combo at the Rangers Ballpark.
Washington Nationals @ Florida Marlins 1st 5 UNDER 4.5 -120 (Lannan v. Nolasco) LAnother game with heavy juice but Marlins struggle vs LHP and havent ever seen Lannan. Nolasco on the other hand is 5-1 with a 3.53 ERA/.93 WHIP. Lots of talk about Nolasco as a possible Cy Young sleeper candidate but they arent too familiar with him either. Zimmermans the only one to see him in more than 8 ABs and is 2-14 with 5 Ks/0 BB. Lannan's definitely underrated, but what can you do on the Nats...
Pittsburgh Pirates 1st 5 +160 (Maholm v. Wainwright) L
Just based on the #'s from Wainwright vs the Pirates... 5.44 ERA/1.60 WHIP, .314 AVG. Maholm I doubt well be as good as last year and Maholms numbers are a bit deceiving vs the Cards 2.64 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .287 AVG and Pujols eats him up, just going with the value. Considered +165 for the entire game, still not sure Im made the right decision going 1st 5 but experimenting with 1st 5 plays this year.
San Diego Padres -128 (Peavy v. Kuroda) 2 Units
Peavy says bring it
GL To Yall This Season :cheers:
3rd season of MLB. My 1st year was nice, 2nd year I quit about 2-2.5 months in because I started a downward spiral. Typically only bet dogs/totals with a few 1st 5 innings thrown in but may bet those more this year. Im going to be starting off with bookmaker then when I deposit into Matchbook Ill be able to have the good lines... and its going to be an eternity that happens
Plays:
Sunday (4/5):
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 4.5 -105 1st 5 (Lowe v. Myers) W
Atlanta Braves +118 W
Simply put Lowe's #s are great vs this Phillies lineup, minus Utley. Myers #s aren't terrible but Chipper and McCann have had success vs him. He did come in 30 lbs lighter and seems hes back mentally as well but he still walks guys. Id be a little concerned about the later innings but Lowe can usually give a solid 7 and I'm not worried at all about the backend of the Braves bullpen. Doubt the Braves will be so awful on the road again this year (29-52 last year). Myers worse during the night, Lowe better during the Day.
Just a side note - Ive read Francoeur has worked on his approach at the plate and its working for him being more selective, but I want to see this happen for myself during the year. Thatd be a huge boost to that team, plus once Schafer moves to leadoff the Braves could regain the throne of the NL East.
Monday (4/6):
New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds OVER 7 -120 (Santana v. Harang) L
Cincinnati Reds +145 L
After getting to look into some of these games in more detail I couldnt pass up the opportunity to bet an over of only 7 when both these teams have lit up the opposing pitchers. Maybe not lit up but more than enough guys have given Santana trouble and when he misses he gives up those HRs and this is a hitters park. Id like a little better odds on the Reds and dont feel all that comfortable backing Harang since a few guys give him the fits themselves. Love taking +money... thats all.
Arizona Diamondbacks RL -1.5 +135 (Webb v. Cook)
I HATE RLs... hate em but think the value's there. Cooks #s in the past arent very good vs the Rockies but last year he was 3-0 in 4 starts vs the Rockies with a 3.07 ERA and .89 WHIP. Hitters hit .191 also. One of those guys Holliday was 4-10 and hes gone. Hawpe (3/9, 3 BB/4K) and Barmes (3/6, 1K) did well vs him last year. Helton who has great career #s vs Webb struggled outside of his one HR in 9 ABs. Younger lineup, Webb usually starts the season off strong, think the bullpen can handle the Rockies late as well, may be down a few too many runs. Avoided the over based on Webbs dominance last year.
Cook visiting Chase is bad news with a 6.17 and 1.89 ERA/WHIP. Drew (5/8) and Chris Young (3/5) started to figure him out last year and Snyder/Tracy rip this guy apart with Snyder 12/21 (.515) and Tracy 17/33 (.571) lifetime avgs.
Texas Rangers +114 (Millwood v. Lee) W
Youve seen the #s everywhere. Lee has a 6.42/1.55 ERA and WHIP vs the Rangers. Even better is the 8.56/1.68 combo at the Rangers Ballpark.
Washington Nationals @ Florida Marlins 1st 5 UNDER 4.5 -120 (Lannan v. Nolasco) LAnother game with heavy juice but Marlins struggle vs LHP and havent ever seen Lannan. Nolasco on the other hand is 5-1 with a 3.53 ERA/.93 WHIP. Lots of talk about Nolasco as a possible Cy Young sleeper candidate but they arent too familiar with him either. Zimmermans the only one to see him in more than 8 ABs and is 2-14 with 5 Ks/0 BB. Lannan's definitely underrated, but what can you do on the Nats...
Pittsburgh Pirates 1st 5 +160 (Maholm v. Wainwright) L
Just based on the #'s from Wainwright vs the Pirates... 5.44 ERA/1.60 WHIP, .314 AVG. Maholm I doubt well be as good as last year and Maholms numbers are a bit deceiving vs the Cards 2.64 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .287 AVG and Pujols eats him up, just going with the value. Considered +165 for the entire game, still not sure Im made the right decision going 1st 5 but experimenting with 1st 5 plays this year.
San Diego Padres -128 (Peavy v. Kuroda) 2 Units
Peavy says bring it
GL To Yall This Season :cheers:
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