Opening Day Preview For Bettors
One of my favorite early-season angles is to fade starting pitchers who are making their debut for a new team. Perhaps because of the pressure to start the season off on the right foot or because of the basic discomfort of wearing a new uniform, pitchers tend to struggle in this situation. Two examples from last year were Jake Arrieta and Jhoulys Chacin. In Arrieta's season debut for Philadelphia, he gave up two runs in four innings against a weak Miami lineup. In Chacin's debut for Milwaukee, he surrendered four runs in only 3.1 innings in San Diego, against his former team.
This year, Trevor Cahill finds himself in this situation. He will be making his debut for the L.A. Angels. Cahill has not seen much of current Oakland batters, although Oakland batters must be familiar with him since he pitched for Oakland last year. Besides Oakland's overall advantage of familiarity, Khris Davis and Robbie Grossman enjoy a combined 5-for-9 career edge against Cahill with two doubles and one homer.
If you'll join me to fade Cahill with this strong situational angle, 5Dimes offers first-half team total wagers and you would bet on the Oakland first-half team total 'over.'
The best pitching duel of Opening Day will be arguably between the Mets' Jacob deGrom and Washington's Max Scherzer. Both pitchers have seen a lot of the opposing lineup and have enjoyed consistent success. Current National batters are hitting .173 against deGrom in 173 career at-bats. Active Met hitters are batting .196 against Scherzer in 183 career at-bats.
The situation is great for both pitchers because they are as fresh as can be. deGrom has allowed two runs combined in his last three season openers, Scherzer only four runs. Also, deGrom won't have to deal with Bryce Harper. Washington will play its first game without its former star talent. deGrom won't miss him because Harper is .323 life-time against deGrom with two homers and two doubles in 31 at-bats. With these two pitchers, a first-half "under" looks like a smart play. In terms of a side, I lean towards the Nationals because they should be extra motivated to prove to their doubters that they can succeed without Harper.
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One fan favorite who bettors should be wary of is San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner. The rumors of his decline are backed by significant evidence. His performance in Spring Training hasn't countered those rumors with much hope. His ERA was 8.27 in six games. Last season, his 3.26 ERA was masked by a 3.99 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck). His walk rate was as high as it's ever been and his strikeout rate as low. His velocity and spin rate were down for all of his pitches except his curveball, which he threw more often at the expense of his fastball. Although his career history against San Diego is strong, that might change somewhat with the insertion of Manny Machado into San Diego's lineup. Machado is 2-for-8 with a double in his career against Bumgarner.
Another pitcher who had a rough Spring was Atlanta's Julio Teheran. He'll have his hands full against a Phillies lineup which has been subjected to tremendous hype with the additions of JT Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, and of course Bryce Harper. Harper provides the biggest addition on paper. He's 18-for-40 (.450) with three doubles and eight homers in his career against Teheran.
However, bettors should exercise patience and hold off from putting too much trust too soon in the Phillies. It takes time for a lineup to develop chemistry. Only in video games do teams sign a bunch of good players and immediately play as well as they should be expected to on paper. Like pitchers, hitters donning a new uniform should be handled with caution. Three examples from last year are Giancarlo Stanton with the Yankees, J.D. Martinez with Boston, (and with Arizona the year before) and Eric Hosmer with the Padres. Each one struggled with low batting averages in his start with a new team. The spotlight will shine especially on Harper to see how he performs in his much anticipated season-opener. Look to be contrarian and bet the "under" on his number of hits, which is a prop that various sportsbooks will carry.
One of my favorite early-season angles is to fade starting pitchers who are making their debut for a new team. Perhaps because of the pressure to start the season off on the right foot or because of the basic discomfort of wearing a new uniform, pitchers tend to struggle in this situation. Two examples from last year were Jake Arrieta and Jhoulys Chacin. In Arrieta's season debut for Philadelphia, he gave up two runs in four innings against a weak Miami lineup. In Chacin's debut for Milwaukee, he surrendered four runs in only 3.1 innings in San Diego, against his former team.
This year, Trevor Cahill finds himself in this situation. He will be making his debut for the L.A. Angels. Cahill has not seen much of current Oakland batters, although Oakland batters must be familiar with him since he pitched for Oakland last year. Besides Oakland's overall advantage of familiarity, Khris Davis and Robbie Grossman enjoy a combined 5-for-9 career edge against Cahill with two doubles and one homer.
If you'll join me to fade Cahill with this strong situational angle, 5Dimes offers first-half team total wagers and you would bet on the Oakland first-half team total 'over.'
The best pitching duel of Opening Day will be arguably between the Mets' Jacob deGrom and Washington's Max Scherzer. Both pitchers have seen a lot of the opposing lineup and have enjoyed consistent success. Current National batters are hitting .173 against deGrom in 173 career at-bats. Active Met hitters are batting .196 against Scherzer in 183 career at-bats.
The situation is great for both pitchers because they are as fresh as can be. deGrom has allowed two runs combined in his last three season openers, Scherzer only four runs. Also, deGrom won't have to deal with Bryce Harper. Washington will play its first game without its former star talent. deGrom won't miss him because Harper is .323 life-time against deGrom with two homers and two doubles in 31 at-bats. With these two pitchers, a first-half "under" looks like a smart play. In terms of a side, I lean towards the Nationals because they should be extra motivated to prove to their doubters that they can succeed without Harper.
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One fan favorite who bettors should be wary of is San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner. The rumors of his decline are backed by significant evidence. His performance in Spring Training hasn't countered those rumors with much hope. His ERA was 8.27 in six games. Last season, his 3.26 ERA was masked by a 3.99 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck). His walk rate was as high as it's ever been and his strikeout rate as low. His velocity and spin rate were down for all of his pitches except his curveball, which he threw more often at the expense of his fastball. Although his career history against San Diego is strong, that might change somewhat with the insertion of Manny Machado into San Diego's lineup. Machado is 2-for-8 with a double in his career against Bumgarner.
Another pitcher who had a rough Spring was Atlanta's Julio Teheran. He'll have his hands full against a Phillies lineup which has been subjected to tremendous hype with the additions of JT Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, and of course Bryce Harper. Harper provides the biggest addition on paper. He's 18-for-40 (.450) with three doubles and eight homers in his career against Teheran.
However, bettors should exercise patience and hold off from putting too much trust too soon in the Phillies. It takes time for a lineup to develop chemistry. Only in video games do teams sign a bunch of good players and immediately play as well as they should be expected to on paper. Like pitchers, hitters donning a new uniform should be handled with caution. Three examples from last year are Giancarlo Stanton with the Yankees, J.D. Martinez with Boston, (and with Arizona the year before) and Eric Hosmer with the Padres. Each one struggled with low batting averages in his start with a new team. The spotlight will shine especially on Harper to see how he performs in his much anticipated season-opener. Look to be contrarian and bet the "under" on his number of hits, which is a prop that various sportsbooks will carry.
