MLB Parlay (+233) for Opening Day: Underdog Diamondbacks and Guardians Are Road Warriors
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks RL (+1.5) at -150 & Guardians ML at EVEN at +233 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Slow Starting Dodgers
One might be disinclined to invest in the Dodgers' opponent on Thursday because of how heavy of an underdog it is.
But consider what time of the year it is.
Even though the Dodgers normally finish the season with a win rate of over 60 or 65 percent, it typically takes time for them to find their groove.
So, last year, for example, they lost two of their first three games.
Two years ago, they lost Opening Day.
The list goes on.
This time of the season is a ripe one to look for opportunities to go against the Dodgers.
Zac Gallen's Regular Season Outlook
And what an opportunity do we get with Zac Gallen starting for Arizona.
Gallen has been working up his pitch count in his progressive Spring Training outings, so he is warmed up and ready to go.
Naysayers will point to his poor Spring Training stats.
But his performance in games that did not matter to him -- as he conceded, he did not accomplish any prep work for his opponents -- is irrelevant to his outlook in games that do matter.
In 2020, for example, his Spring Training ERA was 5.63, but his regular season ERA was 2.75.
Gallen on Opening Day
It's not like Gallen needed time, either, to transition from turning in poor Spring Training performances to succeeding in the regular season.
He started succeeding right away.
Strong Opening Day starts are the norm for him.
In four career Opening Day starts, he has allowed a combined total of three ER.
Gallen in Dodger Stadium
Gallen looks reliable on Opening Day also because he gets to pitch in Dodger Stadium.
He loves pitching in this ballpark, where his career ERA is 2.10 in four starts.
A Dodger lineup missing Justin Turner and especially Trea Turner will also pose less of a challenge than previous ones.
Julio Urias' Outlook
Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers on Thursday.
His outlook might appear positive because he is a lefty and is facing a Diamondback lineup that struggled against lefties last season.
But the Diamondbacks knew they weren't going to be competitive last season, so their lineup construction was not as effective as it is now.
Arizona is continuing to develop high-potential youngsters in addition to acquiring players who will help them out against lefties.
Look out, for example, for Evan Longoria, who hit .282 and slugged .479 against lefties last season when he played for the Giants.
Also look out for fellow new acquisition Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who hit .291 and slugged .400 overall last season as a member of Toronto.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Shane Bieber as an Underdog
It is positively unusual to see such a high-quality pitcher as Shane Bieber be an underdog.
Cleveland's Opening Day starter, Bieber is coming off his third straight season in which he yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) below 3.05.
Bieber on Opening Day
Bieber is also not the type of pitcher who takes time to discover his groove.
In last year's Opening Day, for example, he yielded a 1.40 FIP while shutting out the Royals.
Two years ago on Opening Day, he yielded a 2.84 FIP, and three years ago on Opening Day his FIP was below 0.00.
Bieber vs. Seattle
Furthermore, Bieber's outlook is positive because he enjoys playing Seattle.
His ERA is 3.19 in five career starts against the Mariners.
Luis Castillo's Outlook
Luis Castillo starts for Seattle on Thursday.
Unlike Bieber, Castillo has a troublesome Opening Day history.
Last year, for example, he allowed three ER in 4.2 innings on Opening Day.
Additionally, several Guardian starters are primed to hit him well.
Amed Rosario is 7-for-18 with a .667 slugging rate against him.
Jose Ramirez slugs 1.000 against him.
Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan hit .400 and .500 against him, respectively.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks RL (+1.5) at -150 & Guardians ML at EVEN at +233 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Slow Starting Dodgers
One might be disinclined to invest in the Dodgers' opponent on Thursday because of how heavy of an underdog it is.
But consider what time of the year it is.
Even though the Dodgers normally finish the season with a win rate of over 60 or 65 percent, it typically takes time for them to find their groove.
So, last year, for example, they lost two of their first three games.
Two years ago, they lost Opening Day.
The list goes on.
This time of the season is a ripe one to look for opportunities to go against the Dodgers.
Zac Gallen's Regular Season Outlook
And what an opportunity do we get with Zac Gallen starting for Arizona.
Gallen has been working up his pitch count in his progressive Spring Training outings, so he is warmed up and ready to go.
Naysayers will point to his poor Spring Training stats.
But his performance in games that did not matter to him -- as he conceded, he did not accomplish any prep work for his opponents -- is irrelevant to his outlook in games that do matter.
In 2020, for example, his Spring Training ERA was 5.63, but his regular season ERA was 2.75.
Gallen on Opening Day
It's not like Gallen needed time, either, to transition from turning in poor Spring Training performances to succeeding in the regular season.
He started succeeding right away.
Strong Opening Day starts are the norm for him.
In four career Opening Day starts, he has allowed a combined total of three ER.
Gallen in Dodger Stadium
Gallen looks reliable on Opening Day also because he gets to pitch in Dodger Stadium.
He loves pitching in this ballpark, where his career ERA is 2.10 in four starts.
A Dodger lineup missing Justin Turner and especially Trea Turner will also pose less of a challenge than previous ones.
Julio Urias' Outlook
Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers on Thursday.
His outlook might appear positive because he is a lefty and is facing a Diamondback lineup that struggled against lefties last season.
But the Diamondbacks knew they weren't going to be competitive last season, so their lineup construction was not as effective as it is now.
Arizona is continuing to develop high-potential youngsters in addition to acquiring players who will help them out against lefties.
Look out, for example, for Evan Longoria, who hit .282 and slugged .479 against lefties last season when he played for the Giants.
Also look out for fellow new acquisition Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who hit .291 and slugged .400 overall last season as a member of Toronto.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Shane Bieber as an Underdog
It is positively unusual to see such a high-quality pitcher as Shane Bieber be an underdog.
Cleveland's Opening Day starter, Bieber is coming off his third straight season in which he yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) below 3.05.
Bieber on Opening Day
Bieber is also not the type of pitcher who takes time to discover his groove.
In last year's Opening Day, for example, he yielded a 1.40 FIP while shutting out the Royals.
Two years ago on Opening Day, he yielded a 2.84 FIP, and three years ago on Opening Day his FIP was below 0.00.
Bieber vs. Seattle
Furthermore, Bieber's outlook is positive because he enjoys playing Seattle.
His ERA is 3.19 in five career starts against the Mariners.
Luis Castillo's Outlook
Luis Castillo starts for Seattle on Thursday.
Unlike Bieber, Castillo has a troublesome Opening Day history.
Last year, for example, he allowed three ER in 4.2 innings on Opening Day.
Additionally, several Guardian starters are primed to hit him well.
Amed Rosario is 7-for-18 with a .667 slugging rate against him.
Jose Ramirez slugs 1.000 against him.
Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan hit .400 and .500 against him, respectively.
