Opening Day Discussion

[GWarner27]

i've got a big list of leans and always feel uncomfortable on day one

Going to try and incorporate weather concerns a bit more this year as really cold days where neither pitcher can grip the ball is a big deal and will add even more variance = value to the dog.

Leans:
NYM
STL
PIT
ARI
SD
TB
LAA
CHW

 

[jimbof20]

I like Minny. Cleveland offense a mess. Kluber struggles early on

 

[GWarner27]

I like Minny. Cleveland offense a mess. Kluber struggles early on

that number is way shorter than i expected, weather looks like high 40s so that's not as bad as it could be

 

[2daBank]

Liking the cards as dogs, they have had pretty good success vs chacin, he 2-7 vs us in his career w bad era and whip, 24k’s w 19 walks vs current guys. Mikolas was a beast in day games last season, in 13 games he went 8-0 with a 2.56 era. Brewers players w 79 abs vs him w only 2 walks. Gotta like getting plus anything w a team that should have more baserunners. Brewers have slightly better slug vs Mikolas but cards obp is almost 100 points better vs chacin.

 

[2daBank]

I like Minny. Cleveland offense a mess. Kluber struggles early on

Lean that way as well.

 

[2daBank]

Guess be too much to ask that we know umps yet? Lol

 

[Ryno14]

Early lean to Cards ML and Braves/Phils O

 

[GWarner27]

Guess be too much to ask that we know umps yet? Lol

we will be stalking tomorrow

 

[GWarner27]

Liking the cards as dogs, they have had pretty good success vs chacin, he 2-7 vs us in his career w bad era and whip, 24k’s w 19 walks vs current guys. Mikolas was a beast in day games last season, in 13 games he went 8-0 with a 2.56 era. Brewers players w 79 abs vs him w only 2 walks. Gotta like getting plus anything w a team that should have more baserunners. Brewers have slightly better slug vs Mikolas but cards obp is almost 100 points better vs chacin.

i liked this too, but StL has moved to a fave so now i will pass

 

[Vapster]

BALT @ YANKEES Over 8.5 (Think Yankees Can Do That Themselves)

HOU @ TAM HOU -1.5 (Top 5 Pitcher vs TAM?!)

ARI @ LAD (I'll Take Grienke Here.)

SFG @ SDP (BUM MINUS 101?! Too Good To Be True! This Line Based On SFG Lineup...)

CWS @ KCR (Chicago MAY Surprise This Year...)

BOS @ SEA +1.5 (Hey. They Are 2-0, Riding Momentum...Haha!

Happy Opening Day ALL!!! :shake::beerdrink::shake:

 

[GWarner27]

Greinke is just a far better pitcher than Ryu

 

[aplous]

90% chance of rain in KC all afternoon I assume they'll push it to tomorrow

 

[aplous]

Phillies line obviously high but I think Nola wins the Cy this year and ATL has regression. Opening Day for Bryce and crew should get a W unless Kapler fucks it up.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

Luis Castillo struggling again this spring after his big September although the velocity seems to be there and the change piece is filthy per usual - they're more attributed to command issues, finding consistent arm slot and development work on third offering tinkering back and forth from big curve to slider. will look to fade until he regains his footing out there

 

[GWarner27]

Luis Castillo struggling again this spring after his big September although the velocity seems to be there and the change piece is filthy per usual - they're more attributed to command issues, finding consistent arm slot and development work on third offering tinkering back and forth from big curve to slider. will look to fade until he regains his footing out there

i was thinking about Taillon last night, but couldn't pull the trigger just yet. He's so solid and had good numbers in all but one start vs CIN last year and i'm not that afraid of the CIN lineup (though PIT is pretty weak). Bullpen seems to be something I'd like to gamble on if tied late, though obviously batting last is a huge differentiator

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Has there ever been a line like this Yankee line opening day?

Do we fade Orioles every game on the RL this year or what?

 

[GWarner27]

fading $3.00 favorites in this sport seems to be a +EV decision, but i can't do it today

 

[PaintCrew]

Somebody hit that Toronto line pretty good.....just moved 15 cents at my local from -130 to -145

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

FWIW, Max had poor spring according to numbers, dont know context

 

[2daBank]

i liked this too, but StL has moved to a fave so now i will pass

I got on cards and twinks as dogs and both have flipped, not thrilled about that.

 

[2daBank]

I played O’s FF +321. Probably lose but that a insane price for anyone on opening day, and Tanaka? Walk and a jack and if cashner pitching well that could be enough!!

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Orioles line suggest yanks win 8 times out of 10.

https://www.bettingexpert.com/en-au...dds-conversion-chart-with-implied-probability

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I forgot yanks had Tulo.

Wow

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

This team is beyond stacked

 

[2daBank]

This team is beyond stacked

Don’t even make sense how deep w talent their pen is. They got about 5 guys who could close for half the league! Lol

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Cashner is going to have an epic year.

Maybe 25 losses.

 

[GWarner27]

Don’t even make sense how deep w talent their pen is. They got about 5 guys who could close for half the league! Lol

how do we fade NYY full-game? Think we can only go first 5

 

[2daBank]

how do we fade NYY full-game? Think we can only go first 5

Think you right, makes no sense to be involved against them after the 5th. Can’t see them losing many games when leading at that point.