Opening Day Angle

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Last 5 years these top starters are 13-1 in opener. Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Carlos Martinez

LINK

3e1e7ebc-09df-4af2-a693-85c64166bd9c.png
 
One other angle is these particular umps seem to favor home teams for the first month of the season...heavily (80% SU and 47% ROI over 5 years)

season >= 2013 and H and HPU in [Dan Bellino , Jerry Layne , Mike Everitt , David Rackley] and month < 5
SU: 66-17 (2.12, 79.5%) avg line: -121.9 / 110.1 on / against: +$5,101 / -$5,432 ROI: +47.3% / -58.8%

RL: 56-26 (1.60, 68.3%) avg line: 124.3 / -137.8 on / against: +$4,559 / -$5,084 ROI: +49.0% / -42.1%

OU: 40-38-4 (0.53, 51.3%) avg total: 7.8 over / under: -$182 / -$552 ROI: -2.0% / -6.1%
 
I'm starting slow thsi year, hopefully get a better feel of teams and chemistry in coming weeks. Right now I'm just playing historical trends and pitchers I like

3/29 Thurs
903 Cardinals +131
903 Cardinals/Mets Under 6½ +105
911 Giants/Dodgers Over 7 -120
912 Dodgers -275
913 Rockies/Diamondbacks Over 8½ -110
916 Orioles -119
920 Blue Jays +135
921 Red Sox/Rays Over 7 +110
921 Red Sox -163
930 Tigers +111

Rockies and Rays both 5-0 "over" last 5 opening games while Cards 0-4-1 "under"
View attachment 31810

Yanks 0-5 SU last 5 opening games and O's and Stros are 5-0 with lines 160 or less. Stros over 160 so will pass on that.
View attachment 31811
 
Think I'll join you on that cards/muts under. Should be a really good one if you like pitching duels!! I went jays 1st 5 opposed to full game but certainly agree w side.. gl this season
 
This just in...ACES rule on opening day. Here is arguably the top 10 pitchers first start over last 5 years $$$ 24-1 $$$
61% ROI SU and 39% on RL...also remove Kershaw and "under" ROI goes up considerably

season >= 2015 and game number <= 4 and starter in [Clayton Kershaw , Chris Sale , Max Scherzer , Carlos Martinez , Justin Verlander , Chris Tillman , Jordan Zimmermann , Noah Syndergaard , Dallas Keuchel , Carlos Carrasco]
SU: 24-1 (3.00, 96.0%) avg line: -148.3 / 136.1 on / against: +$2,280 / -$2,330 ROI: +61.3% / -90.1%

RL: 16-9 (1.98, 64.0%) avg line: 108.5 / -122.1 on / against: +$1,094 / -$1,224 ROI: +39.0% / -35.8%

OU: 10-13-2 (-0.06, 43.5%) avg total: 7.3 over / under: -$485 / +$245 ROI: -16.9% / +9.2%
 
Parker Bridwell took league by storm last year with Angels 17-3 when he was on mound plus 12-6-2 under the total. He definitely got my attention
LINK

Chris Sale starts strong and is 13-5 in APR/MAR last 5 years but his real value is on the road when you can get decent prices. 6-2 on road ave line -125 and near 40% ROI
b21e40d2-3fa3-4f8f-8ed4-da512fc38d6b.png
 
And somehow the mlb DB stays up to date , but they can't get the NCAAB to stay current.

Good thread, Mr. P.

GL this year.
 
pressitup said:
And somehow the mlb DB stays up to date , but they can't get the NCAAB to stay current.

Good thread, Mr. P.

GL this year.
Click to expand...

Yeah, unfortunately they tell you the NCAA BB database is a work in progress and still 2 years away from being where mlb, nba, nfl are
 
Opening day 6-6 -2.35u
Thats what happens when you lay -275 chalk...something I almost never do but since I've rolled my plays back to 1% it seemed like small enough it was no big deal. Whether small or big, -275 still works the same. lol. Sale and Kershaw bothpitched good enough to win, but Dodgers couldn't score and Sox pen imploded in 8th. CMart just pitched like crap. Noah and Justin came through and Felix even turned in a gem.

Today I'm gonna still ride aces Max and Dallas and Jordan. For those who dont think as highly of Zimm, do consider Nova lost last 6 in 2017 and Bucs not much.

  • 957 San Francisco Giants +150
  • 965 Houston Astros -1 -148
  • 969 Washington Nationals -1½ -130
  • 972 Detroit Tigers -101
Alex wood has been 5-14 in April last 4 years. Fact is him and Kluber are 2 losingest April starters over last 5 years. I missed the play vs Klub last night but it did win. Over 45% ROI fading these 2.

month < 5 and o:starter in [Alex Wood , Corey Kluber]
SU: 29-13 (0.98, 69.0%) avg line: 113.3 / -123.6 on / against: +$2,096 / -$2,336 ROI: +45.8% / -43.4%

RL: 26-16 (1.55, 61.9%) avg line: -117.9 / 104.4 on / against: +$875 / -$1,108 ROI: +15.2% / -21.2%

OU: 20-22-0 (0.86, 47.6%) avg total: 7.6 over / under: -$353 / +$73 ROI: -7.6% / +1.6%
 
Mrpickem, sincerely appreciate you adding in your SQDL queries when you post...I've always wanted to use the database but have not been able to figure out all the terminology to get the right searches. I know both you and NBAFan88 have been great about posting these, and I've started to pick up on how this is done.

BOL on day 2 and the rest of the new year and thanks again for the inclusion of your searches...I definitely appreciate it.
 
scarf31 said:
Mrpickem, sincerely appreciate you adding in your SQDL queries when you post...I've always wanted to use the database but have not been able to figure out all the terminology to get the right searches. I know both you and NBAFan88 have been great about posting these, and I've started to pick up on how this is done.

BOL on day 2 and the rest of the new year and thanks again for the inclusion of your searches...I definitely appreciate it.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I've dabbled in SDQL for a couple years, but this is the first year I have really put some effort to learning the syntax and theories. I've read a lot, but this one post I ran across really made a lot of sense and helped me a lot. I even got Penn St winner last night from his query and this post was from 2016. It was posted by an SDQL master and here it is.

There are in my experience two different approaches/schools of thought trying to solve predictivity in a dynamic environment,
keep in mind You have to evaluate minds and organizations competing, not fruit flies:
(ok, apart from Ray Rice, Tyreek Hill ... but that's another topic)

A) Approach :small-sample size but sound logic from observing knowing the sport :

example 1 : A friend told me he noticed Tom Coughlin who was in the 1990s on the same staff with Parcells and Belichik
seems to have their number due to being familiar with their playbook and coaching style. Let's check :
http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=coach=Tom+Coughlin+and+o:coach+in+[+Bill+Belichick,+Bill+Parcells]&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

example 2 : Andy Reid is known for being too pedantic (the kid who after the test is over still keeps on writing until the paper gets pulled away from him)
and hates time pressure, on several occasions forgetting that he has still timeouts on the last drive of the game.
But when he is prepared, he is prepared, performing exceptionally well off bye-weeks. Let's check :
http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=coach=+Andy+Reid+and+rest>10>o:rest&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

example 3 : Due to both teams playing wishbone offenses, because they cannot recruit giant linemen for pass protection,
( it is not offensive, u cant put a 6-6, 330 guy into a tank or having him blocking paths on a submarine ) so they have to rely on cut-blocking running schemes.
As a result the play clock gets used up really fast, reason to expect an under. Let's check :
http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/query?output=default&sdql=team=ARMY+and+o:team=NAVY&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Although very small sample sizes, You cannot neglect these histories/queries when capping that particular game.
And there are bettors / cappers who have a collection of those and have success with this.

B) Approach : large sample size, high z-score, I will use large sample sizes here for a purpose of differentiating :
When constructing a query making sure that every parameter has predictive value and when You link them, they are not antagonizing :
Let's start with say college basketball. One of many differences to the NBA is that there are not enough athletic 7-footers for every of the 300+ teams.
Say You want Your team to have size, translating into recent :
more blocks : http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=p:blocks>op:blocks+1&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
allowing fewer offensive rebounds by the opponent: http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=po:offensive+rebounds<opo:offensive+rebounds&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
some rim protection : http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/qu...ade<opo:field+goals+made&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

So You have three criteria and we want to make sure that each of their three combinations correlates in a positive way, means translating into a higher percentage:
http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=p:blocks>op:blocks+1+and+po:offensive+rebounds<opo:offensive+rebounds&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=p:blocks>op:blocks+1+and+po:field+goals+made<opo:field+goals+made&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=po:offensive+rebounds<opo:offensive+rebounds+and+po:field+goals+made<opo:field+goals+made&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

And in the final step You want all three combined to translating into a higher percentega than all queries before :
http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=p:blocks>op:blocks+1+and+po:offensive+rebounds<opo:offensive+rebounds+and+po:field+goals+made<opo:field+goals+made&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

You see how the number of checks You have to make is the factorial of the criteria number, i.e. 6 checks for 3 criteria, 24 for four, 120 for 5 ...
This is why people using this approach is incompatible with a high number of criteria,in practical use 4 or 5 is the limit.
To cut the story short You can get queries like these ( line!=None is just for cleanup ) :
http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=line!=None+and+A+and+o:rank=None+and+p:blocks>op:blocks+1+and+po:field+goals+made<opo:field+goals+made+and+po:offensive+rebounds<opo:offensive+rebounds+++&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
sample size 2100 , approximate z-score 1137-918 / sqrt ( 1137+918 ) = 4,8
Further for reliability break it down for a season by season check :
http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=season+and+line!=None+and+A+and+o:rank=None+and+p:blocks>op:blocks+1+and+po:field+goals+made<opo:field+goals+made+and+po:offensive+rebounds<opo:offensive+rebounds+++&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

I have seen both approaches work, so the proper answer is :
the more You know the better, in the sense of risk diversification, the side that has the advantage always looks for ways to diversify risk.
In the long term 300 plays are nothing, queries that have worked for years, have stopped because books have caught up, and there are new ones that have come up.
Click to expand...
 
more powder for reds and possible over
  • 969 Washington Nationals -193
  • 969 Washington Nationals/Cincinnati Reds Over 9 -101
max or homer starts as F of -120 or more, during first 6 games of season over last 5 years
Bb4u9re.png
 
adding
  • 954 Atlanta Braves -105
  • 954 Atlanta Braves -1½ +190

Mike Foltynewicz has not lived up to expectations and has been very average in first 3 years. He did have a good spring and the current Philly batters have had any success vs him(.207 BA and 0.80 WHIP)
View attachment 31827

Also the Braves walk off win yesterday lends to momentum for home favorites especially in first month
http://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...OW++++and+season+>=+2013&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Also there is ump Jerry Layne's stellar April record for the home team..23-6 over 6 years and better ROI on RL
LMkoHHW.png
 
Last edited:
Yeah that call at the plate in reality was too close to overturn. Fucks with the flow of the game as Tigers were celebrating and fans were going wild...remeber they were down 10-6 entering the 9th. Kinda kills the fun watching 4 fats guys with headphones for 5 minutes. Shitty move for my bet and baseball in general. Fans will tire of such horseshit.

Max pitched a gem and got btw run in 9th to win RL and ML, but over was stupid and 2-2 so far for the day.
 
adding
  • 957 San Francisco Giants/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7½ -120
  • 957 San Francisco Giants +1½ -155
The last 5 years a team shutout on opening day is 15-2-1 under the total in game 2 for a staggering 64% ROI
query: p:runs=0 and game number =2 and season>=2013

b2e3423c-8dba-41eb-84c2-40d33c3baaa8.png


Also umpire plays right into my Giants and under plays :D
Last 5 years home team with Reynolds umping and total below 8 and start time after 9pm. ML the best, but RL and under both look joooucy!

View attachment 31835
 
Last edited:
The Tigers walkoff win review and subsequent revoking...historically this must be a first.

If you haven't seen the BS...here

BRAVOS SCORE TO TAKE LEAD
 
Another disappointing day with 2 call reversals costing me in DET and ATL.
6-4 FRIDAY +1.96u
12-10 YTD -0.41u

  • 914 Los Angeles Dodgers -1 -147
  • 926 Baltimore Orioles +107
  • 926 Baltimore Orioles +1½ -150
  • 921 Cleveland Indians -107
Still I'm excited about the season. Of my 10 aces, I only went 3-5 with Carrasco going today and not sure on Tillman as he only signed maybe a month back and may not be quite ready yet.
Do have a couple nice trends right out the gate today with little effort. Dodgers shutout first 2 games and that's only happened 3 times in 14 years the sdql tracks "p:runs=0 and pp:runs=0 and game number=3" but imo the more relevant query is
shutout 1st 2 games of series and home favorite of -130 or more last 5 years...12-0


View attachment 31836

also Orioles off WOW(walk of win) after scoring first over 1 run and home home fav in series game 2 or higher

season >= 2013 and HF and p:WOW and p:SF >= 1 and SG > 1
SU: 140-67 (1.35, 67.6%) avg line: -153.7 / 141.4 on / against: +$4,414 / -$5,162 ROI: +13.9% / -24.9%

RL: 106-100 (-0.15, 51.5%) avg line: 144.1 / -158.2 on / against: +$4,782 / -$6,190 ROI: +23.0% / -18.9%

OU: 93-102-11 (0.39, 47.7%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$1,707 / -$12 ROI: -7.6% / -0.1%


Note: Orioles opened fav but were bet to dog, so you can modify the query as simple H instead of HF and results are still preferable
 
Last edited:
As we move forward towards the 2nd tier starters we see a lot more overs historically in first week of season

ee55e890-5dc7-48ed-9057-9fcc8d70a3cf.png
 
adds
  • 912 San Diego Padres +106
  • 925 Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles Under 9 -101
Both starters in BAL seem to pile up the unders in first start over 4 years and there is doggie value at home after sloppy home loss in SD
 
  • 903 Washington Nationals -1 -130
  • 930 Detroit Tigers -110

Tigers -120 If you look at Michael Fulmer's stats, they look pretty close to Justin Verlander's early career stats; they both keep the ball in the park, have a good K/BB ratio, decent FIP and just like Verlander, I think Fulmer will be a great pitcher one day. He was on his way to a good season last year until a nerve issue sidelined his season.

Neither one of these teams look particularly sharp at the moment, and both bullpens are shredded, so ultimately this comes down to which starter can go the strongest.
 
gonna hit DET over too

  • 929 Pittsburgh Pirates/Detroit Tigers Over 8 -115

team = Tigers and H and month < 5 and season >= 2013 and temperature < 50
SU: 17-10 (1.22, 63.0%) avg line: -144.4 / 132.7 on / against: +$385 / -$455 ROI: +9.8% / -16.5%

RL: 15-12 (0.06, 55.6%) avg line: 133.5 / -146.6 on / against: +$824 / -$1,030 ROI: +28.8% / -25.3%

OU: 20-7-0 (2.37, 74.1%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: +$1,240 / -$1,512 ROI: +42.0% / -50.5%


HPU = Bill Welke and month < 5 and DAY and season >= 2013 and H
SU: 6-6 (-0.25, 50.0%) avg line: -143.5 / 132.0 on / against: -$194 / +$144 ROI: -11.1% / +11.7%

RL: 4-8 (-1.00, 33.3%) avg line: 123.4 / -137.3 on / against: -$410 / +$353 ROI: -29.3% / +20.1%

OU: 9-3-0 (1.17, 75.0%) avg total: 7.8 over / under: +$570 / -$710 ROI: +43.8% / -53.0%
 
Well, another day struggling to stay afloat. 3 days and still near 50%

SAT 4-3 +.5u ~ with 2 plays rained out in DET
YTD 16-13 +.0.09u

Gonna roll with Bucs/Fulmer for same reasons from yesterday and I also notice he had an excellent 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in the spring including 7 shutout inn in last start. Williams on the other hand was 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 5 spring games. Also noticing the Reds are terrible vs lefties at home (4-13 in 2017) and Gio coming off a great year where he was better on the road where he was 11-6 with only 1 loss over 120 fav.
Stros are very tough on lefties on the road and

plays so far with others under consideration
  • 955 Washington Nationals -135
  • 967 Houston Astros -157
  • 974 Detroit Tigers -116
  • 973 Pittsburgh Pirates/Detroit Tigers Over 8 -105
Some relevant queries attached
 
Last edited:
got a few more
  • 960 Baltimore Orioles -115
  • 958 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +120
  • 960 Baltimore Orioles -1½ +175
  • 961 New York Yankees/Toronto Blue Jays Over 8 -120
6a56df1f-92a2-4f1c-9de4-cfcf5da3176c.png
 
adds
  • 976 Detroit Tigers +110
  • 976 Detroit Tigers +1½ -155
  • 975 Pittsburgh Pirates/Detroit Tigers Under 9 -115


Tigers under quite often in game 2 of doubleheader after losing 1st(even better at home 10-3 under)

2acc79c1-5a59-41db-851d-549828e065e2.png
 
I can't stay away on my time off @mrpickem

Have not done any SDQL with MLB so will be most interested in what you do...thanks for posting!!

:tiphat:
 
Shitty Sunday, Tigers killed me 0-5 between they're DH and 4-1 with everything else :eek:

SUN 4-6 -2.66u
YTD 20-19 -2.57u

Maybe I'm a glutton but I'm going back to tiggers again today. I see a home team in day game after getting swept in home double dip kills it. 10-4 overall and 7-1 as favorite
  • 916 Detroit Tigers -106
  • 916 Detroit Tigers -1½ +185
Both these starters are bottom tier, but hopefully Lirinao’s strong spring carries over here. (2.25 ERA with 17 K’s over 16 spring innings) Hammel comes off his worse season and had a mediocre to poor spring, allowing 21 runs over 18.2 innings of work. His last outing was his best work, but I got more confidence in Tiger starter

View attachment 31872

Note: I had an error in my record over last 2 days that I went back and corrected. Still not good, but not as bad. lol
 
Well fuck, may as well go all in with DET
  • 915 Kansas City Royals/Detroit Tigers Over 8½ -105
Hallion has great over record...even much better if total > 9 as it's 10-6 over at 8.5 in first query and all games at 8.5 a solid 23-13 over (2nd query)
a55303b5-0d53-4d4e-89c8-eb83cc631fdd.png


5d2839d7-ab67-4607-814a-606bb10b246e.png
 
3 angles / 3 bets all cubbies
  • 903 Chicago Cubs -141
  • 903 Chicago Cubs -1½ +120
  • 903 Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds Over 8½ -105
 
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